stock watch, stock split

Begin Part 3 of 4

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS REMAINING PLAYS
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XL (XL Capital--$89.02; +1.02; optionable): Insurance. Forecast to announce a split on 11-5-01 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm a time for the release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xl.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that XL has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was 5-11-01 at which time no shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: XL was unable to hold the support of its 18 day MVA (88.98), falling back off of a doji on that level Monday on the news of the issuance of some additional shares. Not a catastrophic reaction by any means, as XL tapped near its 50 day MVA (84.26) today, but managed to push back up to close; however, volume was weak at 1.6 million (average 1.77 million). XL has made a great run post-attacks, hitting 95 at its high before this pullback, but the selling here is not frantic as the stock attempts to hold in the range of its levels from the beginning of the year. Going toward the forecast we will see if the stock can generate any momentum. Still targeting 100 if it can get something going.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move over 93 on above average volume. Stop: 89. The breakout is a move to 95.12 on volume of 2 million or better. Stop: 90.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $90 calls to buy (XL AR).

PEP (Pepsico--$48.75; +0.60; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 11-15-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company will not confirm this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the meeting.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pep.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in April 1996 at a stock price of $60. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-2-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Looking at PEP to announce a split, joining Pepsi Bottling (PBG), which announced with a board meeting this month in this price range (and is now on the report as a pre-split). PEP has been moving in a ragged cup dating back to late December, and has had a couple of handle breakout attempts that have stalled at the stock's high at 50 (in September and October). After the fall back from the last move, PEP held support at September lows (at 47, just below the 50 day MVA at 47.71), from where it has now made a move back up. Volume has been low on the move, and after a gap up and reversal Monday the stock pushed back up today from the short-term MVA's (48.30). With the low volume on the recent move up, it might need to consolidate some more before it makes at try at its recent double tops. We are treating that level as the breakout point. Target if it can make that move: 60.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 50.12 on volume of 9.4 million. Stop: 47.50.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $45 calls to buy (PEP AI).

EASI (Engineered Support--$51.65; +2.70; optionable): Aerospace/Defense. Forecast to announce a split on 12-10-01 in conjunction with earnings. At this time, the company cannot confirm this date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/easi.html
BACKGROUND: EASI last announced a 5:4 split on 2-1-2001 with a board meeting at a price of $28.50. Before that it announced on 6-12-98 at a price of $26.50. The company has sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: EASI is a defense stock that took off immediately in the wake of the terrorist attacks, but after another solid move out of a small cup with handle (from a double bottom), it topped out at 58 and took an abrupt drop. Since then it has bounced up from the 50 day MVA (43.92) three times, and today it made a promising move, rising over recent highs on increased volume (429,900; average 454,500). Not much volume, and this was an aggressive play as it was. With existing positions we will carefully protect gains. It is right at its September high, so we will see if it can continue or if it drops back from here. If so, we will still watch for a possible head and shoulders if it cannot hold the 50 day.
BUY POINT: Aggressive momentum: With higher volume in the 700,000 range, a move over 53. Stop: 49.75. We carefully protect positions on these types of plays.
POSITION: Stock and/or December $50 calls to buy (UFE LJ - under 100 open interest).

EDMC (Education Management--$33.75; -4.87; optionable): Education & Training services. We are researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/edmc.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 12-2-98 at a stock price of $47. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Ouch. EDMC has been moving in an erratic handle to a cup pattern, showing very poor price/volume action. Today there was another element that contributed to the stock's movement, news of the issuance of shares. The stock gapped down and then fell through its 50 day and 200 day MVA's (35.48 and 34.58, respectively), with volume picking way up to 1.08 million (average 460,600). There are recent lows near 32, and with no apparent prospects to the upside, we will see if a test of the extensive resistance will fail and perhaps produce a quick put play.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: After a failed move up to 35-36, a drop back through 33.25 on continued strong volume. Target: 30.
POSITION: Stock and/or December $45 puts to buy (UKN XH).

NDN (99 Cents Only Stores--$34.10; -0.84; optionable): Retail. Researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndn.html
STATUS: NDN broke from its short lateral consolidation Thursday (something of a handle to an erratic cup), moving on good volume, but could not maintain the move. The last three sessions the stock has dipped back, but each day volume has decreased (182,900 today; average 303,600). It is currently holding the 18 day MVA (34.02; 50 day MVA is at 32.62). NDN has been a wild one of late, screaming out of its cup pattern (without a handle, as many stocks do as money comes back into what has been a weak market), and making a new high of 39.50 in early October, but then crashing back to the 50 day MVA before the most recent bounce. We will see if it can hold here, and perhaps finally settle down and make a move it can sustain. It has several highs in the 37 range. Target: 43, watching 39.50.
BUY POINT: A move over 37 on above average volume. Stop: 35.
POSITION: Stock and/or December $35 calls to buy (NDN LG).

FDC (First Data--$67.08; -1.50; optionable): Working on a forecast date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split was a 2:1 on 11-18-96 at a stock price of $80. The annual shareholder meeting was on 1-11-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: FDC was creeping up in the right side of its steep cup pattern (left-side and all-time high at 72.25, from July), and we were waiting for it to pull back a bit and start forming a handle. However, as can happen after edging up on low volume, FDC fell back rather abruptly the last two sessions. Tuesday's volume was much lower than Monday's (1.55 million; average 1.94 million), and it is holding over its 18 day MVA (66.21), so we will see if it can stop the drop here and form a handle consolidation.
BUY POINT: After holding here and forming a more lateral handle, the breakout buy point is 71 on volume of 3 million. Stop: 67. If it can hold we will look at some more aggressive positions as well.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $65 calls to buy (FDC BM).

THQI (THQ Inc.--$48.90; -2.81; optionable): We are working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 10-26-99 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $44. Prior to that announced a 3:2 split on 7-23-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $33. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: THQI has been moving in a somewhat ragged handle to a ragged cup, but after trying to move toward the breakout Friday and looking somewhat promising, the stock dumped back hard. Today it continued back, dropping back through the 50 day MVA (49.31) on increased volume (1.27 million; average 1.08 million). At its low of 48.05 it tapped its down trendline, connecting its June and August highs. Not looking too good here, especially with the Adobe news, but not a short at this point. We will see if it can make a solid and quick recovery over the 50 day and continue its handle. If it cannot, we will watch for heavy selling and a possible put play.
BUY POINT: Very aggressive: After a recovery that holds over the 50 day to session close, a move over 52.50 on increased volume. Stop: 49. The breakout is now way out at 55.12.
POSITION: Stock and/or December $50 calls to buy (QHI LJ).

FORMER SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS: As the market finds itself, we are focusing on some of the stocks that have shown a propensity to split and which are looking solid.

SCHL (Scholastic Corp--$45.25; -0.82; optionable): Publishing.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/schl.html
STATUS: SCHL is trying to hold on in its handle (to a cup dating back to February). After a weak bounce up from its 18 day MVA (45.63) last week, the stock has retreated back again the last two sessions, today giving up that recent support to close. However, volume remained very low on the selling (up to 123,600; average 241,800). We have seen quite a bit of price volatility of late, so we will see if SCHL will hang in and form a better handle consolidation. The handle high is up at 48.24. Target o a breakout: 56.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 48.36 on volume of 410,000. Stop: 46.
POSITION: Stock and/or December $45 calls to buy (USC LI).

PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

New Pre-Split Play:

SIB (Staten Island Bancorp--$28.16; -0.49; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective 11-20-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sib.html
STATUS: After a strong, steady trend, the stock hit a high of 36.10 before dropping back abruptly, bottoming at 22.55 before making its way back up over its 50 day MVA (27.72) to form a cup. SIB moved up from the 50 day last week, but the move was not strong, and the last two sessions it has pulled back, closing today on the 10 day (28.20). Volume remained low on the selling back, today steady at 68,400 (average 131,000). Looking for it to hold over the 50 day while forming a low-volume handle, and then make a breakout move over the handle high of 29.88. Target: 36.
PLAY: 30 on volume of 250,000, with stock. Stop: 28.

Continuing Pre-Split Plays:

RMCI (Right Mgmt--$34.77; -0.12; no options): Business services. Splits 3:2 effective 11-2-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmci.html
STATUS: Broke from a 2.5 month cup in late September, but since that time has shown a lot of volatility. RMCI has made two moves up to the 37 range (high 37.45), but pulled back hard off of those moves. It caught support this time at the 18 day MVA (33), and is working on something of an ascending wedge here going into Friday's split. It slowed today, showing a loose doji after tapping the 10 day at its low of 33.90, moving on low volume of 123,800 (average 150,100). Hit the aggressive buy point, but with the volatility we have seen we will need to watch positions carefully, especially with the recent double tops and the hard selling. However, we will continue to watch for a move, potentially a breakout. Solid relative strength.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move over 35.50. Stop: 33.75. Breakout: 37.57 on volume of 200,000. Stop: 35. Stock only.

KRON (Kronos--$55.80; -0.57; no options): Business equipment. Announced a 3:2 stock split, effective on or about November 15.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kron.html
STATUS: Moving in a handle to a cup that dates back to January 2000 (highs at 80), and the last few sessions KRON has pulled back to the recent lows in its ranging handle pattern. It looked prepared to move up after a couple of long 'tails' on its candlesticks with high volume, but today dropped back to recent lows, managing to close over the 18 day MVA (55.20), with volume dipping way back to 131,500 (average 189,300). From here we are looking for it to hold the 55 level, and try again to make a strong move back toward the breakout. Target: 70.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 58 on above average volume. Stop: 55. Breakout: 62.07 on continued strong volume (minimum of 225,000). Stop: 57.
POSITION: Stock only.

FULL (H.B. Fuller--$51.29; -1.10; optionable): Chemicals. Splits 2:1 effective 11-19-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/full.html
STATUS: Has formed another consolidation after breaking from a small pennant last week. Today it dropped back below the lows in that consolidation, closing just below the 10 day MVA (51.49). Volume was up but still below the average at 53,900 (average 58,000), so we are looking for the stock to move back into the consolidation range and then show a breakout. We will see if we can get some stronger volume on a move back up. The breakout high was 53.62, and he recent high before the September drop was 55.25. Target: 60.
PLAY: 53.74 on better than average volume, with stock and/or November $50 calls to buy (FUQ KJ). Stop: 50.25.

PBG (Pepsi Bottling--$46.52; -0.67; no options): Beverages. Splits 2:1 effective 12-5-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pbg.html
STATUS: PBG broke from a ragged cup with handle earlier this month, hitting a high of 50 on the move, and is now testing back to the breakout level (and 50 day MVA, at 45.93), for a second time. It was in a decent consolidation over the 18 day (47.28), but the last two sessions has fallen out, although the move back has been on volume that remains below the average (453,000 today; average 659,400). We will see if it can produce another bounce from the 50 day, watching the recent high of 48.70. The 50 day MVA is an excellent buy point for a good bounce pre-split. Target on a new high: 56. A little erratic, but it has made some solid moves.
PLAY: Aggressive: A bounce over the 10 day MVA (47.45) on above average volume, with stock and/or December $45 calls to buy (PBG LI). Stop: 47.

CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.

AZO (Autozone--$54.48; -1.45; optionable): Auto Parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/azo.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in March of 1994 at a price of $58. The annual shareholder meeting was on 12-14-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized.
STATUS: AZO was pulling back into a nice looking consolidation, but dropped back on higher volume Monday, and gapped down below the 18 day MVA (55.72) Tuesday. AZO made a great run after the tragedy, hitting a high of 59.95, but it needs to put on the brakes on this drop. We will see if it can gather itself and move back over the 18 day, looking for a bit of consolidation and another possible move. The stock has been on a tear, running up from 25 in the early part of the year, and the current run took it out of an July-September consolidation. We were targeting 66 on a breakout.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 57.50 on above average volume (1.27 million; today down to 1.35 million). Stop: 55.
POSITION: Stock and/or December $55 calls to buy (AZO LK).

BJ (BJ Wholesale--$49.90; -0.85; optionable): Retail - Discount
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bj.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-4-99 at a stock price of $44. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-24-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for 2:1 split.
STATUS: BJ has made a decent recovery after the attacks, working on the right side of its base and moving recently pulling into a lateral handle pattern. Since pushing back over its 50 day MVA (50) a couple of weeks ago, the stock has reached as high as 53.70 before pulling back a bit an moving in a range. It has dropped back this week to close just below the 50 day, but volume has remained low (434,400; average 592,000). Looking for the stock to hold this support and make a strong move toward the breakout. The high is at 57.24 (July). Target: 62.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 52 on above average volume. Stop: 49.50. Breakout: 53.82 on volume of 900,000. Stop: 50.25.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or December $50 calls to buy (BJ LJ - under 100 open interest).

FLIR (Flir Sys--$44.20; +2.15; optionable): Electronics. Did not get the split, but made a very nice move on earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that FLIR has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 7-24-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: After pulling back from the recent high of 47, FLIR pulled into a tight, lateral consolidation on the 18 day MVA (42.62) before making a solid move up on earnings last Thursday. However, the move could not be sustained, but after gapping below the 18 day today, the stock shot back up on good volume (up sharply to 375,500; average 297,300). A good recovery, but also a bit erratic. Looking for it to continue to hold the 18 day, and try again on the move in a better market. On a break over the high, we will be watching as it approaches its upper channel line, which is currently at 50. Target: 54.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 46 on increased volume. Stop: 43. Breakout: 47.38 on increased volume. Stop: 44.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $45 calls to buy (FFQ AI - low open interest).

MIKE (Michaels Stores--$52.63; +0.58; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mike.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MIKE has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-13-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Got the pullback Friday off of Thursday's big move (which hit 53.74), and MIKE has continued to show strength, pulling back slightly but holding up well. It has made three big surges off of recent lows at the 35 level, making small, solid consolidations each time before taking off. The last move took it to a new high, and after three surges we will see if it has enough gas to keep going. It might need some more time to consolidate, and the 10 day MVA is below at 50.07, but we will keep our eyes open for another blast up. At this stage we will be very careful to protect positions with stops. Current target: 57.50.
BUY POINT: Riding current positions toward the target, protecting again heavy selling. From here, a buy point of 53.86 on increased volume. Stop: 50.50.
POSITION: December $50 calls to buy (IKQ LJ).

End Part 3 of 4

stock watch
stock split