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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AMED; AMT; AQNT; BBBB; BOBJ; CRM; PSSI
Strong plays:
1) BOOM: Volume is jumping as BOOM comes off the 50 day EMA.
2) SPIL: Volume also jumping as SPIL bumps against a 5 year high.
3) CWTR: Nice test.
4) CKFR: Nice volume as it starts the move.
5) CYTC: Solid breakout starting.
6) WBSN: Has a hair trigger.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 11/30/2005
SOX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$481.64; +5.86; optionable)
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After testing the 10 day EMA (475.80) Tuesday and looking as if it wanted to fill the gap higher from two weeks back, SOX reversed course and posted a 1.2% gain. It is setting up to make the breakout from a 12 week base, a move that will take it to a new 2005 high (486.34 is the August high). Semiconductors are vastly improved, ready to lead the market higher. Looking to take an aggressive position on a solid market move and then on a move over that August high.
BUY POINT: $484.75 on a good market move; then 486.55. Target=$504.75 Stop=$482.55
POSITION: SXX AQ - Jan. $485c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/^sox.html
Play Date: 11/30/2005
BOOM (Dynamic Materials--$24.32; +1.20; no options): Industrial metal cladding
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/boom.html
After Hours: $24.49
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. BOOM broke out in early November, moving higher on strong volume out of a 12 week cup base. It surged to near 28 and then dove sharply lower on earnings that apparently were not strong enough. The stock held the 50 day EMA (22.02), however, moving laterally for two weeks. Wednesday it jumped off the consolidation on strong, above average volume. Accumulation during the base formation is a strong 4 to 1 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume). Looking for continued strong volume as the move progresses.
Volume: 1.75M Avg Volume: 1.386M
BUY POINT: $24.75 Volume=2.1M Target=$29.75 Stop=$23.05
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/boom.html
Play Date: 11/30/2005
RSTI (Rofin-Sinar Tech--$43.17; -0.27; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rsti.html
STATUS: Breakout test. RSTI broke out from a 10.5 month cup with handle base three weeks back. Strong volume shot it higher, moving to 44.20 on the breakout run. It has come back to the 10 day EMA (42.45), testing the break higher. It gapped lower to that level and then rebounded for a modest loss on strong volume. Looking for a break higher on strong trade to start the play. Strong stock fundamentally to match its strong pattern.
Volume: 325.935K Avg Volume: 100.767K
BUY POINT: $44.05 Volume=151K Target=$51.97 Stop=$42.32
POSITION: QRT CH - Mar. $40c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rsti.html
Play Date: 11/30/2005
SPIL (Siliconware Precision--$5.28; +0.06; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spil.html
STATUS: Double bottom. SPIL is in the hunt for a 5 year high, setting up to breakout from its 16 week base that used the 200 day SMA (4.60) on the second leg as support. Very nice base sporting positive accumulation and strong money flow. Volume jumped back above average Wednesday, and that is telling us to get ready for a breakout move.
Volume: 1.068M Avg Volume: 892.735K
BUY POINT: $5.43 Volume=1.3M Target=$6.55 Stop=$5.11
POSITION: QSP CA - Mar. $5c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/spil.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 11/30/2005
CWTR (Coldwater Creek--$31.40; -0.26; optionable): Retail apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cwtr.html
After Hours: $31.39
STATUS: Breakout test. CWTR is also a leader in its sector, and it is coming back to the 10 day EMA (31.33) to test last week's breakout to a new all-time high. It gapped out of a nicely formed 12 week cup base on strong earnings. It has now filled the gap, holding near support at the 10 day. Strong money flow and solid accumulation. Looking for volume to rebound as it continues higher off the 10 day. A great company that made the transition from mail order catalogs to actual stores. It has about 115 stores and plans another 400 or so; it is still in the sweet spot of growth.
Volume: 962.108K Avg Volume: 747.14K
BUY POINT: $32.22 Volume=1.1M Target=$38.65 Stop=$31.05
POSITION: UCJ DF - Apr. $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cwtr.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 11/29/2005
CKFR (Checkfree--$46.85; +0.91; optionable): Financial electronic commerce products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ckfr.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Pretty wild session, reaching way down to the 18 day EMA (44.88) and then rebounding late in the session on above average volume for a solid gain. Still a buy as it continues this move. To recap: CKFR broke out to a 4.5 year high in late October, gapping out of a 7 month cup base. It rallied to 46 and then fell back to test the move, falling back to some support at 44 and the 18 day EMA. It fell on stronger volume Monday but then jumped right back up Tuesday on even stronger trade. A top rated stock fundamentally to go along with the strong technical pattern. Money flow is running higher ahead of price and CKFR looks ready to resume its move following the money higher.
Volume: 1.052M Avg Volume: 649.754K
BUY POINT: $46.95 Volume=975K Target=$53.65 Stop=$44.45
POSITION: FCQ BI - Feb. $45c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ckfr.html
Play Date: 11/21/2005
CYTC (Cytyc--$27.51; +0.71; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cytc.html
After Hours: $27.52
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher Wednesday on above average volume, starting the breakout move. Heading for a an all-time new high on solid trade. Still a move as it continues the breakout. To recap: CYTC is making the breakout from its 11 month base. The past 8 weeks it formed a double bottom with handle, the 'handle' to the larger base. Strong 11 to 5 accumulation has set the breakout. CYTC had a torrid run from 2003 to 2004 and needed this base. We want to see a high volume breakout to show us that the big buyers are really running back to the stock when it makes its move.
Volume: 953.044K Avg Volume: 632.668K
BUY POINT: New positions: $27.68 (orig. $27.11) Volume=957K Target=$32.45 Stop=$25.98
POSITION: YQK BE - Feb. $25c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cytc.html
Play Date: 11/19/2005
HSP (Hospira--$44.15; +0.05; optionable): Pharmaceutical and medication delivery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hsp.html
STATUS: Breakout test. And the lateral move over the 10 day EMA (44.04) continues, but Wednesday volume jumped sharply, moving above average. After the three week flying plateau the volume jump indicates it is ready to make the break higher. Have to see the price move along with continued volume. To recap: HSP has spent 3 weeks in a flying plateau, a tight lateral move that follows a strong break higher. HSP broke out from a 9 week base two weeks back, moving to a new all-time high. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying and complements the strong money flow. Ready to move in as it makes the break higher from this plateau on continued strong volume. A solid stock fundamentally and technically.
Volume: 671.2K Avg Volume: 593.785K
BUY POINT: $44.95 Volume=900K Target=$51.95 Stop=$43.05
POSITION: HSP BI - Feb. $45c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hsp.html
Play Date: 11/28/2005
VSAT (Viasat--$27.65; +0.06; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsat.html
After Hours: $27.57
STATUS: Test breakout. Good move on some rising, average volume Wednesday as VSAT posted a modest gain after the Tuesday intraday test toward the 10 day EMA (27.04). Looking good and still a buy on a continued move higher on volume. To recap: VSAT broke out last week from a short but sweet 7 week cup base sporting strong 3 to 0 accumulation. Strong volume on the move, peaking at 28 Friday and easing back on lower volume. It may still test the 10 day EMA (27.04) before continuing, but the volume Wednesday indicates it is ready to move. Solid, top-rated in both fundamentals and technical pattern.
Volume: 199.352K Avg Volume: 179.298K
BUY POINT: New: $27.25 Volume=271K Target=$32.35 Stop=$26.45
POSITION: IQS BE - Feb. $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vsat.html
Play Date: 11/16/2005
WBSN (Websense--$64.95; +0.8; optionable): Internet usage control for employers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wbsn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. WBSN is trying to make the break higher, gapping sharply higher Tuesday on strong volume but unable to hold the move. It was up again Wednesday, but volume fell below average and it was all over the map, trading in a $2 range. Broke out from a 8.5 month base three weeks back and is flopping around afterwards. Can run like the wind when it gets going, and it is getting ready to make that move.
Volume: 437.667K Avg Volume: 592.598K
BUY POINT: $65.21 Volume=887K Target=$74.95 Stop=$62.72
POSITION: DHQ DM - Apr. $65c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wbsn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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