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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BOOM; CYTC; ELOS; GLW; NTRI; SPIL
Strong plays: All of them look great
1) AMTD: Starting higher on strong trade, clearing a modest consolidation.
2) INGR: Another strong stock clearing a flat base on strong trade.
3) ENDP: Set up well for the breakout.
4) AMED: Nice breakout test.
5) HSP: Moving higher for the breakout.
6) GLW: Moving on strong trade.
7) LUK: Still a very nice test.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 12/05/2005
AMTD (Ameritrade--$24.43; +0.57; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amtd.html
After Hours: $25.10
STATUS: Breakout test. Broke out from a 4 month flat base in mid-November, moving higher up the 10 day EMA (23.58). The past two weeks it has moved laterally right at 24. consolidating that move and setting up for the next move higher. Monday volume jumped back above average as AMTD broke through 24. A top rated stock in its category, AMTD is at a 6 year high and looking for more. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout Monday look very positive. It was up after hours, the only news being it set the date for the special meeting to acquire TD Waterhouse's securities brokerage business. Looking solid and ready to move in on a continued move higher with some solid trade.
Volume: 9.41M Avg Volume: 4.444M
BUY POINT: $24.62 Volume=5M Target=$28.95 Stop=$23.22
POSITION: TQA EE - May $25c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amtd.html
Play Date: 12/05/2005
ENDP (Endo Pharmaceuticals--$29.99; -0.11; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/endp.html
After Hours: $29.97
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nicely formed 14 week base, setting ENDP up for a breakout to a new all-time high. It made the break last week on strong volume but then immediately fell back. Still very solid, holding the 10 day EMA (29.98) on the closes. Monday it reached down to the 18 day EMA (29.51) on the low and rebounded, shaking out the sellers. Positive accumulation and strong money flow. It is set up to make the move; just needs to show it.
Volume: 1.322M Avg Volume: 1.301M
BUY POINT: $30.65 Volume=2M Target=$36.55 Stop=$29.42
POSITION: IUK DF - Apr. $30c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/endp.html
Play Date: 12/05/2005
INGR (Intergraph--$49.81; +1.06; optionable): Spatial information software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ingr.html
STATUS: Flat base. Strong, strong volume Monday as INGR broke out from a 5 week flat base that formed after a 5 month run up the 18 day EMA (48.17). No real news Monday to break it higher, just a strong, top rated stock going about its business. Solid 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) set up the move and we are ready to move in as it continues the move, following that strong money flow higher.
Volume: 709.642K Avg Volume: 319.608K
BUY POINT: $50.04 Volume=450K Target=$57.95 Stop=$48.31
POSITION: IGQ DJ - Apr. $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ingr.html
Play Date: 12/05/2005
OII (Oceaneering Intl.--$52.83; +0.52; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oii.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Looking good in a 9 week triangle that formed using the 50 day EMA (49.45) to make higher and higher lows below a constant top at 53. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation and strong money flow show plenty of strength in this stock. Nicely set up and ready to make the breakout.
Volume: 176K Avg Volume: 327.502K
BUY POINT: $53.45 Volume=491K Target=$61.75 Stop=$51.21
POSITION: OII DK - Apr. $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/oii.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
New buy point on a current play:
Play Date: 11/07/2005
LUK (Leucadia National--$47.75; +0.35; optionable): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/luk.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still making the nice test, tapping at the 18 day EMA (46.81) again on the intraday low and then rebounding to hold the 10 day EMA (47.50). Volume moved up above average as it made the move, a good indication that buyers moved in as as the stock tested, driving it back up by the close. Excellent action setting up the continued breakout move. It now looks ready. To recap: Nice breakout and run higher from LUK in early November, moving out of a 7 week cup with handle pattern and surging to 49.28. It has come back the past week to test the move, tapping at the 18 day EMA on the lows and rebounding to hold near the 10 day EMA. Nice first test of the breakout, and we love to move in on the first test when the stock starts back up on strong volume as that shows continued buying by the big money. Strong money flow continues to lead higher and the strong 4 to 1 accumulation has built a solid foundation for the breakout and run. Looking for a hold near the 10 day EMA and then a rebound on above average volume.
Volume: 240.6K Avg Volume: 265.447K
BUY POINT: New positions: $48.12 (orig. positions: $44.86) Volume=300K Target=$56.95 Stop=$46.32
POSITION: LUK CJ - Mar. $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/luk.html
Continuing plays:
Play Date: 11/28/2005
AMED (Amedisys--$44.91; -0.2; optionable): Home health care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amed.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Surged out of its 16 week reverse head and shoulders base in late November, and is making a quick test of that move, coming back toward the 10 day EMA (43.55) on lower volume. Lower volume on this pullback, and it may not make it back to the 10 day before starting back up given the hammer doji Monday. We will be ready to move in on a move up from here, but if we get a test of 44 we won't complain. Market leader testing its breakout to a new all-time high. Nice 4 to 2 accumulation set up the move, and money flow is strong. Relative strength broke out on the move as well. Hitting on all cylinders.
Volume: 245.335K Avg Volume: 465.695K
BUY POINT: $43.66 Volume=719K Target=$51.45 Stop=$44.25
POSITION: CQW CH - Mar. $40c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amed.html
Play Date: 12/03/2005
BRCM (Broadcom--$47.75; -1.02; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
After Hours: $47.90
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Could not carry on with the Friday move, sliding back Monday toward the 10 day EMA (47.29) on much lower, very much below average volume. No complaints; it is shaking out the last sellers before continuing higher. Solid leader ready to lead again. To recap: BRCM broke out from a 9 week base Friday that formed using the 50 day EMA (45.28) as support. Moved to a 4 year high on the move. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying by the big money, setting up the breakout and run. Good move Friday on below average volume. Looking for more trade as it continues higher to step in and take positions. Nice leader ready to run into the close of the year.
Volume: 4.957M Avg Volume: 8.025M
BUY POINT: $49.12 Volume=10M Target=$56.95 Stop=$46.55
POSITION: RCQ EJ - May $50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brcm.html
Play Date: 12/03/2005
GLW (Corning--$21.27; +0.42; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/glw.html
After Hours: $21.30
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume moved up to average as GLW hit the buy point Monday. It backed off some but we felt the move was strong enough to warrant starting some positions. Still a buy on a continued move higher. To recap: Nice 12 week pattern has formed up around the 50 day EMA (19.82), forming the handle the past three weeks, tapping at the 50 day EMA, rallying, and then coming back to the 18 day EMA (20.46) last week, making a higher low. Volume jumped back up to average the last half of the week as GLW held the 18 day and bounced modestly. Positive 2 to 1 accumulation shows net buying in this nice little base. Looking for that volume to continue this week and blast GLW higher into its breakout to a 4.5 year high.
Volume: 10.73M Avg Volume: 11.501M
BUY POINT: $21.22 Volume=17M Target=$24.25 Stop=$20.21
POSITION: GLW ED - May $20c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/glw.html
Play Date: 11/19/2005
HSP (Hospira--$44.75; +0.58; optionable): Pharmaceutical and medication delivery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hsp.html
After Hours: $45.39
STATUS: Breakout test. Good price move Monday on continued decent trade as HSP heads toward the breakout move once more. Just need to see more trade as it continues higher. To recap: HSP has spent 3 weeks in a flying plateau, a tight lateral move that follows a strong break higher. HSP broke out from a 9 week base two weeks back, moving to a new all-time high. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying and complements the strong money flow. Ready to move in as it makes the break higher from this plateau on continued strong volume. A solid stock fundamentally and technically.
Volume: 527.1K Avg Volume: 552.739K
BUY POINT: $44.95 Volume=900K Target=$51.95 Stop=$43.05
POSITION: HSP BI - Feb. $45c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hsp.html
Play Date: 12/03/2005
MCRS (Micros System--$49.30; -0.90; optionable): Information solutions for hospitality & specialty retail industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mcrs.html
After Hours: $49.30
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Could not continue the breakout move started Friday; with the average trade it had a good chance to come back in a weaker market, and that is what it did. Still held above the 10 day EMA (48.74) even as it tested back, and that keeps it ready to make the better breakout move. Very strong stock that is looking very good. To recap: Friday MCRS started the breakout move from a 22 week base, moving higher to end the week on rising volume Thursday and Friday. Not spectacular trade, but a real volume swell the past week. This move is taking MCRS to a new all-time high, powered by positive accumulation and strong money flow. Relative strength is ready to breakout as well, a good corroboration of the price move when it happens. Top fundamentals to go with the very nice pattern.
Volume: 246.794K Avg Volume: 280.009K
BUY POINT: $50.35 Volume=365K Target=$57.55 Stop=$47.88
POSITION: MFK CJ - Mar. $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mcrs.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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