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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BOOM; CYTC; ELOS; GLW; NTRI; SPIL
Strong plays: All of them look great
1) GENZ: Nice doji at the 50 day EMA
2) NWRE: Market leader that has formed a nice plateau.
3) NDAQ: Big runs to end November ready to give back some ground
4) SOX: May get some legs on TXN update
5) BRCM: Holding tough.
6) MCRS: Nice action ready for a new high.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 12/07/2005
GENZ (Genzyme--$73.8; +0.18; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
After Hours: $72.89
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Taking another run at GENZ. It broke out from a double bottom base in early November but then ran into immediate trouble, gapping lower. It managed to hold the 50 day EMA (73.23) and rallied on up to 78. From there it has pulled back the past 3 weeks, once more coming back to the 50 day EMA. Wednesday it showed a hammer doji at that level, reaching through on the low and recovering by the close. Volume rose, moving close to average. Looking for a move over the 18 day EMA (74.57) on strong trade as the point to start the position.
Volume: 2.095M Avg Volume: 2.187M
BUY POINT: $74.72 Volume=3M Target=$84 Stop=$73.05
POSITION: GAA DO - Apr. $75c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/genz.html
Play Date: 12/07/2005
NWRE (Neoware--$22.08; -0.29; optionable): Networking and communication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nwre.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. One of the market leaders in terms of fundamentals and technical strength. NWRE broke out from a long, 26 month cup with handle base in late October, and has been rallying up the 10 day EMA (21.86) since. The past two weeks it has sidled in a flat range along the 10 day, moving on very low volume. Similar to the market it is not giving up its gains. Looking for a strong break higher from this sideways move to start the play.
Volume: 207.42K Avg Volume: 468.046K
BUY POINT: $22.65 Volume=525K Target=$26.55 Stop=$21.65
POSITION: QQA CX - Mar. $22.50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nwre.html
Play Date: 12/07/2005
STJ (St. Jude Medical--$51.21; -0.4; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stj.html
STATUS: Breakout test. STJ broke out from a 14 week double bottom with handle base to start November and made a modest move higher before losing its momentum and falling back to the 50 day EMA (48.55). Monday STJ gapped off that level on strong volume on with the JNJ, GDT, BSX threesome stirring the pot in the field of medical appliances. It has moved laterally the past two sessions, setting up the next move. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the base set up the breakout and the run higher. Strong money flow is a good complement. Top rated stock that is ready to move after this pause.
Volume: 2.578M Avg Volume: 1.994M
BUY POINT: $52.25 Volume=3M Target=$60 Stop=$49.55
POSITION: STJ DJ - Apr. $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stj.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/07/2005
NDAQ (Nasdaq Stock Market--$38.75; -1.51; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndaq.html
After Hours: $38.75
STATUS: Put. One of the hot stocks we saw breakout early in the year and then watched as it continued to move higher. We kept looking for entries but it kept marching higher and higher. After a 7 month run, it made a couple of exhaustion sprints in October and November where it made stronger but more volatile runs. After a strong run you often see some impressive moves just before the peak. It topped at 45, made a lower high at 43 on the rebound attempt, and Wednesday fell below the 18 day EMA (39.37) on the close, the first time since July. It has shown several distribution sessions the past three weeks, i.e., rising volume on downside sessions. Money flow has turned sharply lower as well. Looking to capture a move from here down to mid-November support at 35. That move lands us a 38%ish move.
Volume: 2.532M Avg Volume: 1.156M
BUY POINT: $38.57 Volume=1.1M Target=$35.05 Stop=$39.55
POSITION: NQD MH - Jan. $40p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ndaq.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Continuing plays:
Play Date: 12/06/2005
^SOX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$0; +0.34; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/^/^sox.html
STATUS: Breakout test. After the strong move Tuesday, SOX backpedaled some Wednesday. It is still holding above the 10 day EMA (491.42), typical near term support after a breakout. May come back to test it all the way, but with TXN reporting a nice mid-quarter update and rising after hours we could see it turn back up from here and continue the breakout move. Lowered the buy point to take advantage of this dip.
BUY POINT: $501.24 Target=$520 Stop=$498.65
POSITION: SJX AA - Jan. $505c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/^sox.html
Play Date: 12/05/2005
AMTD (Ameritrade--$24.56; -0.09; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amtd.html
After Hours: $24.56
STATUS: Breakout test. Strong volume Monday as AMTD cleared the late November highs, but after gapping higher Tuesday it closed off its gap and was down a bit Wednesday as well. Volume backed off; that means no heavy selling. May come back a bit more to test before starting back up, but a strong stock in its sector and in the market, and it will want to continue the move. To recap: Broke out from a 4 month flat base in mid-November, moving higher up the 10 day EMA (23.92). The past two weeks it has moved laterally right at 24. consolidating that move and setting up for the next move higher. Monday volume jumped back above average as AMTD broke through 24. A top rated stock in its category, AMTD is at a 6 year high and looking for more. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout Monday.
Volume: 4.803M Avg Volume: 4.474M
BUY POINT: $24.62 Volume=5M Target=$28.95 Stop=$23.22
POSITION: TQA EE - May $25c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amtd.html
Play Date: 12/03/2005
BRCM (Broadcom--$48.08; -0.6; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
After Hours: $48.34
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher again but could not hold the move as volume was lower and below average. Still very solid, ready to lead its sector and the market higher. May test the 10 day EMA (47.64) again before it finishes coming back, but again, looks very good. To recap: BRCM broke out from a 9 week base Friday that formed using the 50 day EMA (45.52) as support. Moved to a 4 year high on the move. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying by the big money, setting up the breakout and run. Good move Friday on below average volume. Looking for more trade as it continues higher to step in and take positions. Nice leader ready to run into the close of the year.
Volume: 7.049M Avg Volume: 8.038M
BUY POINT: $49.12 Volume=10M Target=$56.95 Stop=$46.55
POSITION: RCQ EJ - May $50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brcm.html
Play Date: 12/03/2005
MCRS (Micros System--$50.11; +0.06; optionable): Information solutions for hospitality & specialty retail industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mcrs.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. MCRS cannot extend the breakout just yet, moving laterally this week on lower, below average volume, right at 50 but also holding its gains, refusing to give them up. Very solid pattern and just letting it make this lateral move and then break higher on a return of strong volume. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout. To recap: Friday MCRS started the breakout move from a 22 week base, moving higher to end the week on rising volume Thursday and Friday. Not spectacular trade, but a real volume swell the past week. This move is taking MCRS to a new all-time high, powered by positive accumulation and strong money flow. Relative strength is ready to breakout as well, a good corroboration of the price move when it happens. Top fundamentals to go with the very nice pattern.
Volume: 197.967K Avg Volume: 276.231K
BUY POINT: $50.35 Volume=365K Target=$57.55 Stop=$47.88
POSITION: MFK CJ - Mar. $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mcrs.html
Play Date: 11/15/2005
MSTR (Microstrategy--$76.49; +1.49; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mstr.html
After Hours: $76.31
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume jumped Tuesday as MSTR moved off the 50 day EMA (73.21), moving back up toward a breakout. Volume fell off Wednesday as it continued higher. We are looking to take some positions as it continues this move and again as it clears the November highs at 78.50.
Volume: 267.289K Avg Volume: 353.931K
BUY POINT: $75.85 Volume=612K Target=$86.55 Stop=$74.25
POSITION: EOU DO - Apr. $75c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mstr.html
Play Date: 12/05/2005
OII (Oceaneering Intl.--$52.62; +0.01; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oii.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Still working laterally in a very flat, tight range the past four sessions as OII sets up for the breakout move from its 9 week base. These tight, low volume moves typically precede the breakout move. To recap: Looking good in a 9 week triangle that formed using the 50 day EMA (49.69) to make higher and higher lows below a constant top at 53. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation and strong money flow show plenty of strength in this stock. Nicely set up and ready to make the breakout.
Volume: 153.5K Avg Volume: 325.598K
BUY POINT: $53.45 Volume=491K Target=$61.75 Stop=$51.21
POSITION: OII DK - Apr. $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/oii.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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