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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BBBB; BOBJ; CRM; FLSH; MRVL
1) CERS: Breaking higher on strong trade.
2) IMGC: Test of strong breakout and run looks to be over.
3) KNOT: Breaking out on a volume jump.
4) SPIL: Resuming the breakout move.
5) TSAI: Ready to continue its strong move.
6) BRCM: Ready to move higher with the chips.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 12/10/2005
CERS (Cerus Corp.--$10.06; +0.43; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cers.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Breaking higher on strong trade Tuesday, taking a pause Wednesday and Thursday, and then back at it Friday on solid trade. The move took it out of a nicely formed 11 week base sporting strong 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). Strong money flow as well, leading higher ahead of price. Relative strength broke out, an indication the move has some legs to it. Moving well and ready to step in as it continues higher this week.
Volume: 248.482K Avg Volume: 139.325K
BUY POINT: $10.38 Volume=209K Target=$12.48 Stop=$9.65
POSITION: QIJ EB - May $10c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cers.html
Play Date: 12/10/2005
IMGC (Intermagnetics General--$33.71; +0.28; optionable): Industrial equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imgc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A top rated stock in fundamentals and technical pattern, IMGC is testing the November breakout from a 17 week double bottom base. It surged to 35 on the breakout run and has tested the past two weeks, fading to the 18 day EMA (33.42) on much lower, below average volume. It held there last week, showing a doji on the candlestick chart Friday. Money flow is strong and running higher, complementing the strong 5 to 2 accumulation. Ready to move in as this market leader continues higher on a shot of above average volume.
Volume: 137.856K Avg Volume: 184.872K
BUY POINT: $34.11 Volume=277K Target=$39.95 Stop=$33.31
POSITION: IMG DH - Apr. $35c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/imgc.html
Play Date: 12/10/2005
KNOT (The Knot--$13.52; +0.94; no options): Internet marriage/engagement services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/knot.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Breaking out toward a new all-time high. We still have a hard time with what this company does, but it is in the top 100 stocks in terms of earnings and sales growth. It is also in a solid 8 week base with surging money flow plowing the ground for a move higher. It is ready to make a strong break and we are ready to participate.
Volume: 266.581K Avg Volume: 154.026K
BUY POINT: $13.78 Volume=231K Target=$16.55 Stop=$12.82
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/knot.html
Play Date: 12/10/2005
LCAV (LCA-Vision--$49.16; +1.77; optionable): Laser vision centers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lcav.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Got a bit volatile Wednesday, but that looks to have simply acted as a shakeout in the handle to its 5.5 month base that formed using the 200 day SMA (40.49) as support. At that level the big money either steps in to buy or it says to heck with it and sells. Here they stepped in and the pattern is now just about complete. Looking for some strong volume to send LCAV through the buy point and to a 9 year high. Strong money flow is leading the way higher. Another market leader that is on the verge of a new strong breakout.
Volume: 511.617K Avg Volume: 679.623K
BUY POINT: $50.05 Volume=1M Target=$59.95 Stop=$47.11
POSITION: JVQ CJ - Mar. $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lcav.html
Play Date: 12/10/2005
TSAI (Transaction Sys Architects--$30.10; +0.28; optionable): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsai.html
After Hours: $29.90
STATUS: Breakout test. Strong break higher to start last week, moving TSAI out of a short but very nice double bottom with handle base. Strong volume accompanied the move, showing the buyers really wanted the stock. A modest test mid-week and then up off the 10 day EMA (29.46) Friday on rising though not quite average volume. Solid 3:1 accumulation shows net buying. In the top 100 stocks in the market in terms of earnings and sales growth.
Volume: 234.361K Avg Volume: 259.586K
BUY POINT: $30.44 Volume=389K Target=$35 Stop=$29.32
POSITION: TOU EF - May $30c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tsai.html
New Buy Points on Current Positions:
Play Date: 12/10/2005
SPIL (Siliconware Precision--$5.99; +0.29; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spil.html
After Hours: $5.99
STATUS: Breakout test. SPIL delivered us a nice breakout two weeks back from its 4 month double bottom with handle base, and last week it tested back, holding above the 10 day EMA on its low (5.64). It started back up Friday, following the strong money flow. This is the next move after the breakout and test. A great place to enter.
Volume: 742.991K Avg Volume: 954.898K
BUY POINT: $6.09 Volume=1M Target=$7.32 Stop=$5.66
POSITION: QSP CA - Mar. $5c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/spil.html
Play Date: 12/10/2005
TWGP (Tower Group--$20.04; +0.03; no options): P & C insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/twgp.html
STATUS: Breakout test. TWGP is making a very nice low volume test of the 18 day EMA (19.82), tightening up its range last week over that near support level. This is the second test of near support after the October breakout from an 11 week cup base. Still plenty of upside left on this strong stock. Another stock in the top 100 of all stocks in terms of sales and earnings growth.
Volume: 189.261K Avg Volume: 231.585K
BUY POINT: $20.24 Volume=347K Target=$24.31 Stop=$19.64
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/twgp.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Continuing plays:
Play Date: 12/06/2005
^SOX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$497.21; +8.80; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/^/^sox.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Tapped the 18 day EMA (484.93) on the Thursday low, and Friday was leading the market higher with its bounce. Looks ready to continues its breakout and lead the market higher after filling the gap.
BUY POINT: $498.25 Volume=0 Target=$518 Stop=$482.4
POSITION: SJX AT - Jan. $500c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/^sox.html
Play Date: 12/03/2005
BRCM (Broadcom--$48.49; +0.82; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
After Hours: $48.50
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Spent last week working laterally over the 10 day EMA (47.80) on mostly below average volume. BRCM is refusing to give up its gains, holding at the highs as it sets up for the break higher this week with the rest of the semiconductors. To recap: To recap: BRCM broke out from a 9 week base a week ago. The base formed using the 50 day EMA (45.72) as support, an important institutional level. Moved to a 4 year high on the move. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying by the big money, setting up the breakout and run. Looking for more trade as it continues higher to step in and take positions. Nice leader ready to run into the close of the year.
Volume: 7.241M Avg Volume: 8.07M
BUY POINT: $49.12 Volume=10M Target=$56.95 Stop=$46.55
POSITION: RCQ EJ - May $50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brcm.html
Play Date: 12/08/2005
BRLI (Bio-Reference Labs--$19.14; +0.27; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brli.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Rallied off the 10 day EMA (18.70) test, heading toward the breakout. Volume backed way off after a strong showing Thursday. It is ready to make the move out of this sweet pattern. To recap: Showing some good upside volume spikes the past week as BRLI bumps up against the breakout from a 10 week base that has made higher lows up the 50 day EMA (17.93) with a constant top at 19. This base is part of a larger 2 year double bottom with handle. Solid accumulation on this technically and fundamentally strong stock. Nice move to average volume Thursday as BRLI showed a doji just below the breakout point. Looks very good for a breakout. Looking to start a position on that move and then again after the first run and its first test.
Volume: 42.439K Avg Volume: 114.026K
BUY POINT: $19.21 Volume=173K Target=$23 Stop=$18.48
POSITION: BJQ EW - May $17.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brli.html
Play Date: 12/01/2005
ITRI (Itron--$47.43; +1.29; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itri.html
STATUS: Cup. Volume moved up to average Friday as ITRI continued its move up off the 50 day EMA (45.49), approaching next resistance at 48, an interim resistance point in its 4.5 month base. A top 100 stock in earnings and sales growth, and this base is setting it up for a new all-time high. Looking to start a position as it clears this near resistance on strong trade.
Volume: 366.124K Avg Volume: 396.268K
BUY POINT: $48.55 Volume=600K Target=$57.95 Stop=$46.15
POSITION: IUP EF - May $50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/itri.html
Play Date: 12/05/2005
OII (Oceaneering Intl.--$52.62; +0.01; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oii.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Still working laterally in a very flat, tight range the past four sessions as OII sets up for the breakout move from its 9 week base. These tight, low volume moves typically precede the breakout move. To recap: Looking good in a 9 week triangle that formed using the 50 day EMA (49.69) to make higher and higher lows below a constant top at 53. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation and strong money flow show plenty of strength in this stock. Nicely set up and ready to make the breakout.
Volume: 153.5K Avg Volume: 325.598K
BUY POINT: $53.45 Volume=491K Target=$61.75 Stop=$51.21
POSITION: OII DK - Apr. $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/oii.html
Play Date: 12/07/2005
STJ (St. Jude Medical--$51.32; +0.26; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stj.html
STATUS: Breakout test. More low, below average volume to end the week as STJ continued a tight lateral move after a strong break higher Monday broke it to a new all-time high. It is being very stingy with its gains, holding the line as the 10 day EMA (50.33) rising to meet it. Strong money flow is holding strong ahead of the stock and it is getting ready to resume the move. To recap: STJ broke out from a 14 week double bottom with handle base to start November and made a modest move higher before losing its momentum and falling back to the 50 day EMA (48.75). Monday STJ gapped off that level on strong volume on with the JNJ, GDT, BSX threesome stirring the pot in the field of medical appliances. It is moving laterally in a tight range, setting up the next move. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the base set up the breakout and the run higher. Strong money flow is a good complement. Top rated stock that is ready to move after this pause.
Volume: 1.418M Avg Volume: 2.011M
BUY POINT: $52.25 Volume=3M Target=$60 Stop=$49.55
POSITION: STJ DJ - Apr. $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stj.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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