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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BOOM; CERS; ELOS; NBR; NTRI
1) HYDL: Breaking higher on strong trade.
2) OCR: Nice test of the strong breakout last week.
3) SIGM: Volume is coming in as breaks higher.
4) TWGP: Starting to move higher off of its nice consolidation test.
5) INGR: Volume jumped and it looks ready to do the same.
6) STJ: Stronger volume as STJ starts higher.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 12/12/2005
HYDL (Hydril--$70.33; +0.73; optionable): Oil and gas equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hydl.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume has surged the past two sessions, really jumping Monday as HYDL started the breakout from its 17 week base. Used the 200 day SMA (60.37) on the pattern low (the head in October). Positive accumulation in the pattern as it sets up for the breakout to a new all-time high. Oil services are the money makers in the energy session this coming year, and HYDL looks ready to make the break higher.
Volume: 455.865K Avg Volume: 267.508K
BUY POINT: $70.95 Volume=350K Target=$81.65 Stop=$67.65
POSITION: HBQ CN - Mar. $70c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hydl.html
Play Date: 12/12/2005
OCR (Omnicare--$59.72; -1.23; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ocr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Strong breakout last Thursday from a 12 week cup with handle of sorts. The base formed using the 50 day EMA (56.23) as support, a key support level. Strong 4 to 1 accumulation in the pattern (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows excellent accumulation as it based. Volume surged as OCR made the breakout, and it has is making a quick test, holding the 10 day EMA (59.23) on the Monday low and rebounding modestly. Surging money flow and a relative strength breakout. Looking for the rebound thru 60 to give us our entry point.
Volume: 2.874M Avg Volume: 1.057M
BUY POINT: $60.25 Volume=1.6M Target=$69.35 Stop=$58.89
POSITION: OCR CL - Mar. $60c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ocr.html
Play Date: 12/12/2005
PFWD (Phase Forward--$10.55; -0.08; no options): Integrated enterprise software to pharma, biotech, medical device companies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfwd.html
STATUS: Flat base. PFWD is working in a 10 week trading range between 9.50 to 11. It surged Monday on strong volume, rallying to 11.45 on the high and clearing the top of the range, but it could not hold the move, finishing flat. Strong 4 to 1 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying in the short base that formed using the 50 day EMA (10.05) as support. A new issue in mid-2004 is ready for a new all-time high.
Volume: 764.768K Avg Volume: 267.068K
BUY POINT: $11.06 Volume=401K Target=$13.25 Stop=$10.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pfwd.html
Play Date: 12/12/2005
SIGM (Sigma Designs--$14.38; +0.46; optionable): Moving picture decoders
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sigm.html
After Hours: $14.41
STATUS: Flying plateau. Volume jumped Monday as SIGM started to move off of its 10 day EMA (13.91). SIGM broke out in mid-November from a 10 week cup with handle base, and rallied up to 14. It then spent the past three weeks moving laterally in a tight range at that level as the 10 day EMA rose up to meet it. Very tight range to close out last week and a good jump higher Monday as the 10 day cam up to kiss it. That often sends a stock on its next leg. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base and surging money flow. Relative strength broke out on the last breakout and it is ready to do the same as SIGM continues higher.
Volume: 749.988K Avg Volume: 446.48K
BUY POINT: $14.62 Volume=525K Target=$17.65 Stop=$13.72
POSITION: MQN DC - Apr. $15c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sigm.html
New Buy Points on Current Positions:
Play Date: 12/12/2005
PSSI (PSS World Medical--$16.05; 0.00; optionable): Medical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pssi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. PSSI broke out in mid-November, getting some volume at that point and breaking out from a 13 week base. It surged up to 16.60 on strong trade and then spent the past two weeks easing back to the 10 day EMA (16.00) on mostly below average volume. Nice tight range the past week as it holds this near support and sets up for the next break higher in this run. Strong money flow is leading higher. Strong stock and the leader in its sector.
Volume: 313.872K Avg Volume: 475.666K
BUY POINT: $16.32 Volume=713K Target=$18.98 Stop=$15.85
POSITION: PYQ EC - May $15c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pssi.html
Play Date: 12/10/2005
SPIL (Siliconware Precision--$6; +0.01; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spil.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Got the volume Monday, but the strong Friday price move stalled. Resumed the breakout move Friday and we are still looking to move in as SPIL continues. Like the trade. To recap: SPIL delivered us a nice breakout two weeks back from its 4 month double bottom with handle base, and last week it tested back, holding above the 10 day EMA on its low (5.71). It started back up Friday, following the strong money flow. This is the next move after the breakout and test. A great place to enter.
Volume: 1.364M Avg Volume: 954.898K
BUY POINT: $6.09 Volume=1M Target=$7.32 Stop=$5.66
POSITION: QSP CA - Mar. $5c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/spil.html
Play Date: 12/10/2005
TWGP (Tower Group--$20.35; +0.31; no options): P & C insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/twgp.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Made the run higher to 20.82 intraday but could not hold the move, fading back on below average volume. Still looks very good here to break higher once more and continue the breakout run. Just add volume and it is ready. To recap: TWGP is making a very nice low volume test of the 18 day EMA (19.87), tightening up its range last week over that near support level. This is the second test of near support after the October breakout from an 11 week cup base. Still plenty of upside left on this strong stock. Another stock in the top 100 of all stocks in terms of sales and earnings growth.
Volume: 199.028K Avg Volume: 231.585K
BUY POINT: New: $20.57 (orig. $20.24) Volume=347K Target=$24.31 Stop=$19.64
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/twgp.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Continuing plays:
Play Date: 12/06/2005
SOX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$500.20; +2.99; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/^/^sox.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher Monday and then filled the gap for us, all in one session. It closed with a doji on the session and we are looking for another move up with the market to move in. Ahead of the FOMC it will be an aggressive play, but SOX is set up to lead once more.
BUY POINT: New: 501 Target=$518 Stop=$482.4
POSITION: SJX AT - Jan. $500c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/^sox.html
Play Date: 12/03/2005
BRCM (Broadcom--$48.87; +0.38; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
After Hours: $48.87
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher on low volume Monday, showing a doji while still within its recent two week lateral range. Still solid, still a leader, and just looking for a volume upside break from this range to enter. To recap: BRCM broke out from a 9 week base 2 weeks ago. The base formed using the 50 day EMA (45.84) as support, an important institutional level. Moved to a 4 year high on the move. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying by the big money, setting up the breakout and run. Looking for more trade as it continues higher to step in and take positions. Nice leader ready to run into the close of the year.
Volume: 5.31M Avg Volume: 8.07M
BUY POINT: $49.12 Volume=10M Target=$56.95 Stop=$46.55
POSITION: RCQ EJ - May $50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brcm.html
Play Date: 12/08/2005
BRLI (Bio-Reference Labs--$19.18; +0.04; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brli.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume moved back up Monday but was still below average as BRLI posted a modest gap higher. Not enough to move in, but looking ready to make the move. To recap: Showing some good upside volume spikes the past week as BRLI bumps up against the breakout from a 10 week base that has made higher lows up the 50 day EMA (17.98) with a constant top at 19. This base is part of a larger 2 year double bottom with handle. Solid accumulation on this technically and fundamentally strong stock. Nice move to average volume Thursday as BRLI showed a doji just below the breakout point. Looks very good for a breakout. Looking to start a position on that move and then again after the first run and its first test.
Volume: 77.918K Avg Volume: 114.026K
BUY POINT: $19.21 Volume=173K Target=$23 Stop=$18.48
POSITION: BJQ EW - May $17.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brli.html
Play Date: 12/10/2005
IMGC (Intermagnetics General--$33.52; -0.19; optionable): Industrial equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imgc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher but no volume and IMGC fell back to the 18 day EMA (33.42) to close. Still in the test of the strong November breakout and run. Working laterally this month, holding much of the gain and setting up to continue higher. Have to be patient. To recap: A top rated stock in fundamentals and technical pattern, IMGC is testing the November breakout from a 17 week double bottom base. It surged to 35 on the breakout run and has tested the past two weeks, fading to the 18 day EMA on much lower, below average volume. It held there last week, showing a doji on the candlestick chart Friday. Money flow is strong and running higher, complementing the strong 5 to 2 accumulation. Ready to move in as this market leader continues higher on a shot of above average volume.
Volume: 94.82K Avg Volume: 184.872K
BUY POINT: $34.11 Volume=277K Target=$39.95 Stop=$33.31
POSITION: IMG DH - Apr. $35c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/imgc.html
Play Date: 12/05/2005
INGR (Intergraph--$49.13; +1.14; optionable): Technical & system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ingr.html
After Hours: $49.12
STATUS: Flat base. Surging volume Monday as INGR came off of the support at 48. Looks ready to try the break higher again. To recap: INGR is working in a 6 week flat base, holding its gains as it consolidates a strong June through October run. It tried to make the continued break higher last week but fell right back. A quick intraday check of the 50 day EMA and it recovered and picked up some volume Monday. Ready to move in as it continues the run.
Volume: 466.316K Avg Volume: 320.808K
BUY POINT: $49.32 Volume=450K Target=$57.55 Stop=$46.65
POSITION: IGQ DJ - Apr. $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ingr.html
Play Date: 12/10/2005
LCAV (LCA-Vision--$49.9; +0.74; optionable): Laser vision centers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lcav.html
After Hours: $49.90
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Low volume continued Monday as LCAV moved up to top of its base. Needs more volume to make the breakout move stick. To recap: Got a bit volatile last Wednesday, but that looks to have simply acted as a shakeout in the handle to its 5.5 month base that formed using the 200 day SMA (40.60) as support. At that level the big money either steps in to buy or it says to heck with it and sells. Here they stepped in and the pattern is now just about complete. Looking for some strong volume to send LCAV through the buy point and to a 9 year high. Strong money flow is leading the way higher. Another market leader that is on the verge of a new strong breakout.
Volume: 377.887K Avg Volume: 679.623K
BUY POINT: $50.05 Volume=1M Target=$59.95 Stop=$47.11
POSITION: JVQ CJ - Mar. $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lcav.html
Play Date: 12/07/2005
STJ (St. Jude Medical--$51.76; +0.44; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stj.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Strong volume has moved up to average as STJ made a modest gap higher and tapped at the breakout point on the high. Nice strong stock that has made a test and is ready to move higher. To recap: STJ broke out from a 14 week double bottom with handle base to start November and made a modest move higher before losing its momentum and falling back to the 50 day EMA (48.87). Last Monday STJ gapped off that level on strong volume on with the JNJ, GDT, BSX threesome stirring the pot in the field of medical appliances. It is moving laterally in a tight range, setting up the next move. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the base set up the breakout and the run higher. Strong money flow is a good complement. Top rated stock that is ready to move after this pause.
Volume: 2.302M Avg Volume: 2.011M
BUY POINT: $52.25 Volume=3M Target=$60 Stop=$49.55
POSITION: STJ DJ - Apr. $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stj.html
Play Date: 12/10/2005
TSAI (Transaction Sys Architects--$29.96; -0.14; optionable): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsai.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Testing the 10 day EMA on the Monday low (29.55) and then rebounding to hold basically flat. This continues the lateral move and shakes out the last sellers before TSAI heads to a 5 year high. To recap: Strong break higher to start last week, moving TSAI out of a short but very nice double bottom with handle base. Strong volume accompanied the move, showing the buyers really wanted the stock. A modest test mid-week and then up off the 10 day EMA Friday on rising though not quite average volume. Solid 3:1 accumulation shows net buying. In the top 100 stocks in the market in terms of earnings and sales growth.
Volume: 244.872K Avg Volume: 259.586K
BUY POINT: $30.44 Volume=389K Target=$35 Stop=$29.32
POSITION: TOU EF - May $30c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tsai.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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