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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 12/29/2005
TKC (Turkcell--$15.63; +0.26; optionable): Telecom communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tkc.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume surged back above average Thursday as TKC moved off of the 50 day EMA (14.88), heading toward the breakout from its 12 month base. Top rated fundamentally, meshing nicely with the well-formed base. Strong 14 to 5 accumulation shows plenty of buying, setting up the breakout. Ready to take some positions as TKC continues the move higher and then again on the move past 16.
Volume: 652.2K Avg Volume: 457.584K
BUY POINT: $15.88 Volume=475K Target=$19 Stop=$15.21
POSITION: TKC DC - Apr. $15c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tkc.html
Play Date: 12/29/2005
JWN (Nordstrom--$37.47; -0.16; optionable): High end department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jwn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. JWN is working on an elongated 6 month handle to its 20 week base. Outstanding 10 to 2 accumulation shows great tons of buying, setting up the move higher if it can get the buyers to push it higher to start 2006 and break it to a new all-time high. Top rated fundamentally as well as technically.
Volume: 872.1K Avg Volume: 2.117M
BUY POINT: $38.21 Volume=3.2M Target=$43.95 Stop=$37.08
POSITION: JWN DG - Apr. $35c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jwn.html
Continuing Leader Play:
Play Date: 12/27/2005
AXE (Anixter International--$39.21; -0.35; optionable): Communications and specialty wire and cable products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/axe.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the nice test of the 18 day EMA (39.18), moving back on very low, below average volume. Setting up nicely for a break higher to continue the breakout move. Just need the move and some volume. To recap: AXE is testing the 18 day EMA as part of a test of the early December breakout from a 17 week ascending triangle that formed using the 50 day EMA as support as it makes higher and higher lows in the pattern. Outstanding 6 to 0 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows all buying, setting up the breakout and run. The first test of a breakout is our favorite entry point, and despite the market, AXE is showing excellent price/volume action and leadership. Strong money flow is leading higher as well. Making a test of the 18 day EMA Tuesday, AXE looks very nice.
Volume: 94.6K Avg Volume: 348.475K
BUY POINT: $40.35 Volume=526K Target=$46.55 Stop=$39.04
POSITION: AXE EZ - May $41c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/axe.html
Continuing Downside:
Play Date: 12/27/2005
COHR (Coherent--$29.77; +0.26; optionable): Lasers, laser-based systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cohr.html
STATUS: Put. Another low volume rebound after the ugly gap lower Wednesday and intraday recovery. It is rebounding, but still weak and below the 10 day EMA (30.20). Expecting a test of the 10 day and then a turn back down. That is when we move in. To recap: Tried to set up a 4 month cup but lost its momentum and faded to the 50 day EMA (30.73). Then it broke sharply lower through that support two weeks back, falling on strong volume. It rebounded last year on lower volume, but could not clear the 50 day, tapping that level the past three sessions. Money flow is diving lower and after this test of the breakout, COHR is ready to follow it lower. A move to the target lands us a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 109.962K Avg Volume: 155.739K
BUY POINT: $29.71 Volume=150K Target=$28 Stop=$30.26
POSITION: HRQ NF - Feb. $30p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cohr.html
Play Date: 12/27/2005
SLXP (Salix Pharmaceuticals--$17.73; +0.07; optionable): Drug products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slxp.html
STATUS: Put. Rebounded Wednesday and then Thursday, but stalled at the 18 day EMA (17.91), tapping that level on the high and then fading back to close. Still in an ugly downtrend and this test of the short term moving averages has set up the next leg lower. To recap: SLXP breached its November low last week, rebounded on lighter volume back to the 18 day EMA the past three sessions, and then started lower Tuesday on rising trade. This follows the drop below the key 200 day SMA (18.32) mid-month, a level where the big money stays on board or gets off the bus. Looks as if they are getting off the bus right now and is heading to fill the mid-May gap higher that started the run higher through early October. That gap has been lurking out there, and this move is taking it back to that level to fill it. A move to the target lands us a 38%ish gain.
Volume: 263.362K Avg Volume: 455.747K
BUY POINT: $17.19 Volume=400K Target=$16 Stop=$17.74
POSITION: PQN NW - Feb. $17.50p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slxp.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ANSS: Forecast the first week of February.
CLE: Forecast 1-26-06
COF: Forecast third week of February 2006.
CTSH: Forecast 1-30-06
DATK: Forecast early January.
DBRN: Researching next date.
GIL: Forecast first week of February
GILD: Forecast 1-25-06
JEC: Forecast 2-7-06
LCAV: Forecast 1-24-06
LM: Tentatively forecast 1-24-06
LOW: Researching the date. Possibly in January but nothing definitive yet.
LUFK: Tentatively forecast in March
MATR: Forecast 1-5-06
MRVL: Forecast 2-23-06
PLCE: Forecast 2-3-06
PPDI: Forecast mid-January.
RJF: Forecast 2-9-06
SNDK: Forecast 1-20-06
TECH: Forecast for January. Working to pinpoint the date.
TSCO: Researching to pinpoint date.
XTO: Forecast 2-15-06
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 12/29/2005
CAKE (Cheesecake Factory--$37.80 -0.07; optionable): Restaurants. Forecast to announce a split in early February.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 11-9-2004 at $46.80. Prior to that a 3 for 2 split on 5-24-01 at $34.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cake.html
After Hours: $37.78
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Working laterally in a tightening range over the 18 day EMA (37.45), forming the handle to its 9 month base. Great 10 to 4 accumulation in the pattern is setting up the breakout move. Holding up very well as the market sells, using near support to set up the breakout.
Volume: 258.391K Avg Volume: 818.997K
BUY POINT: $38.42 Volume=1M Target=$44.35 Stop=$37.31
POSITION: CFQ DG - Apr. $35c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cake.html
Play Date: 12/29/2005
DRI (Darden Restaurants--$39.14; +0.31; optionable): Family restaurants. Forecast tentatively in early March.
BACKGROUND: Announced a 3:2 split 3-21-02 at $38.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dri.html
STATUS: Breakout test. DRI is trying to move higher out of a 2 week flying plateau that is testing the huge mid-December break higher from an 15 week cup with handle base. It broke out in mid-November and rallied to 36, but then fell to the 50 day EMA (35.34) to fully test the breakout. Then the big gap higher this month on strong results. Strong 6 to 4 accumulation in the base provides the foundation for the move. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength has broken out on the move. Want to see more volume as it continues higher to the new all-time high.
Volume: 895.1K Avg Volume: 1.185M
BUY POINT: $39.55 Volume=1.3M Target=$45.48 Stop=$37.94
POSITION: DRI DH - Apr. $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dri.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays ready to move:
Play Date: 12/27/2005
COF (Capital One Financial--$86.71; +0.14; optionable): Credit services. Forecast third week of January 2006. Pinpointing exact date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:1 split on 4-29-99 at $170. A bit early perhaps, but a good run into January will put it at a level where a 2:1 split would give it about the same ratio.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cof.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A nice doji at the 10 day EMA (86.59) on rising but still well below average volume, as COF tests the breakout from last week. Holding up well in a down market with relative strength holding up as well. To recap: COF broke out two weeks back, moving out of its 20 week cup with handle base on a strong shot of volume. Last week it made a more definitive break higher and then moved laterally for three sessions. It got the dips, falling to the 10 day EMA (86.59) but on low volume. Like the first test of a breakout as an entry point because when it turns back up that tells us the big money is back in the stock. Strong money flow and a nice relative strength breakout with the price.
Volume: 1.179M Avg Volume: 2.535M
BUY POINT: $88.15 Volume=3M Target=$99.65 Stop=$86.15
POSITION: COF CQ - Mar. $85c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cof.html
Play Date: 12/10/2005
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$68.47; -0.08; optionable): Heavy construction. Forecast to announce a split 2-7-06 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-13-02 at $63.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Still working laterally in a nice tight range, holding last week's breakout. Very solid in a weak market and looking for the next break higher to continue the breakout move. To recap: Nice breakout from its 11 week ascending base that formed using the 50 day EMA (64.96) to make higher lows. Strong 5 to 1 accumulation in the base shows practically all buying. This test is giving us a very nice entry point. Holding above the 10 day without making the full test. Just waiting for volume to come back.
Volume: 140.9K Avg Volume: 383.512K
BUY POINT: 68.55 (orig. $66.75) Volume=610K Target=$75.95 Stop=$64.45
POSITION: JEC DK - Apr. $65c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jec.html
Play Date: 12/13/2005
MATR (Matria Healthcare--$39.48; +0.44; optionable): Home health care. Forecast to announce a split 1-5-06.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split in 1-6-05 at $37.30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/matr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Continues working laterally over the 10 day EMA (38.80) after its strong gap higher 3 weeks back. Showing excellent relative strength in the weaker market, holding onto its gains. Looking for the below average volume to spike up as it moves back up. Aggressive at 39.55; breakout over 40. To recap: Nice run over the summer into September, and then MATR needed a breather. It formed the current 14 week base, using the 200 day SMA (33.43) as support. It blasted higher, gapping on strong volume. Testing back, holding the move, setting up for the continued breakout run. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the pattern shows net buying and is setting the breakout move.
Volume: 120.983K Avg Volume: 258.07K
BUY POINT: New: $39.55 (orig. $38.89) Volume=392K Target=$44.68 Stop=$37.38
POSITION: PQT CG - Mar. $35c (57 delta) or PQT CH - Mar. $40c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/matr.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/28/2005
BRL (Barr Labs--$63.06; +0.27; optionable): Generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
After Hours: $62.22
STATUS: Ascending breakout. Tried to extend the Wednesday move but closed well off the high (63.60) as volume backed off. Still set to make the breakout, just needs the push. To recap: BRL broke out from a 22 month base in October and has rallied up the 18 day EMA (60.83). The past three weeks it has traded in an up and down fashion over that near support level after a strong move higher early this month. It has built higher lows along that support and below a relatively constant top at 63. Money flow is strong and relative strength broke out Wednesday ahead of the price, a bullish indication for the stock to follow it. Volume moved up to average Wednesday as BRL bumped at the breakout point. Looks solid and ready for a new all-time high.
Volume: 532.9K Avg Volume: 764.759K
BUY POINT: $63.21 Volume=1.1M Target=$72.75 Stop=$60.32
POSITION: BRL EM - May $65c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/brl.html
Play Date: 12/28/2005
LUFK (Lufkin Industries--$50.57; +0.21; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lufk.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Big move intraday to 53.09, but it could not make it stick, fading to a modest gain by the close. Still set up very well to provide us the continued breakout run. To recap: LUFK checked up at the early December breakout point, testing lower intraday Wednesday and then rebounding to show a doji on the candlestick chart, often an indication a pullback has concluded. It does not hurt that LUFK filled the early December gap on the intraday test lower. Energy stocks are coming back to life after this correction, and LUFK has set itself back up for a move higher to continue the breakout. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying in the base that set up the breakout and the run higher. Nice test and now it is ready. Strong money flow complements the accumulation.
Volume: 118.354K Avg Volume: 250.702K
BUY POINT: $51.77 Volume=376K Target=$59.55 Stop=$49.89
POSITION: UFR CJ - Mar. $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lufk.html
Play Date: 12/08/2005
PCP (Precision Castparts--$52.47; +0.84; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Showing some very good action the past week as volume picks up but remains below average. Nice 13 week base that is setting PCP up for a new all-time high. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation is setting up the breakout from this nicely formed pattern.
Volume: 474.6K Avg Volume: 780.859K
BUY POINT: $52.48 Volume=1.3M Target=$60 Stop=$50.65
POSITION: PCP CJ - Mar. $50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pcp.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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