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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good Movers: BOOM; RJF; SNDK; SU
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 01/03/2006
NBR (Nabors Industries--$78.45; +2.7; optionable): Oil and gas drilling. Splits 2:1 on a date yet to be announced.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbr.html
After Hours: $78
STATUS: Breakout test. NBR is heading back for another new high following the test of its early December breakout from its 10 week base. Strong volume on the break higher and a very low, below average volume test the past two weeks. That gave way to a nice, strong volume rebound Tuesday. Strong money flow and strong 5 to 2 accumulation have set up the break higher. Relative strength is ready to make the breakout move as well along with price, a good indication the breakout is solid.
Volume: 3.248M Avg Volume: 2.365M
BUY POINT: $78.95 Volume=2.5M Target=$88.95 Stop=$76.42
POSITION: NBR CO - Mar. $75c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nbr.html
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 01/03/2006
NFX (Newfield Exploration--$52.12; +2.05; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nfx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Strong volume Tuesday as NFX comes off of the 18 day EMA (49.98), the near support that held as NFX came back the past two weeks to test the early December breakout from its 11 week double bottom base. Positive accumulation pairs up with strong money flow, pushing the stock higher. Like the first test of the breakout; when the stock resumes the move on strong volume, that shows us the big buyers are back and it often leads to the really big gains in a stock.
Volume: 1.583M Avg Volume: 1.384M
BUY POINT: $52.35 Volume=2.1M Target=$60.35 Stop=$50.21
POSITION: NFX FJ - June $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nfx.html
Continuing Leader Play:
Play Date: 12/27/2005
AXE (Anixter International--$40.36; +1.24; optionable): Communications and specialty wire and cable products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/axe.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Jumping higher after another intraday reach below the 18 day EMA. Tapped lower and then surged back. Volume was up but still below average. Needs to show some more trade as it continues the break higher. Hit the buy point late. To recap: AXE is testing the 18 day EMA as part of a test of the early December breakout from a 17 week ascending triangle that formed using the 50 day EMA (38.17) as support as it makes higher and higher lows in the pattern. Outstanding 6 to 0 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows all buying, setting up the breakout and run. The first test of a breakout is our favorite entry point, and despite the market, AXE is showing excellent price/volume action and leadership. Strong money flow is leading higher as well. Making a test of the 18 day EMA Tuesday, AXE looks very nice.
Volume: 238.9K Avg Volume: 335.25K
BUY POINT: $40.35 Volume=526K Target=$46.55 Stop=$39.04
POSITION: AXE EZ - May $41c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/axe.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ANSS: Forecast the first week of February.
CLE: Forecast 1-26-06
COF: Forecast third week of February 2006.
CTSH: Forecast 1-30-06
DATK: Forecast early January.
DBRN: Researching next date.
DRI: Forecast early March.
GIL: Forecast first week of February
GILD: Forecast 1-25-06
JEC: Forecast 2-7-06
LCAV: Forecast 1-24-06
LM: Tentatively forecast 1-24-06
LOW: Researching the date. Possibly in January but nothing definitive yet.
LUFK: Tentatively forecast in March
MATR: Forecast 1-5-06
MRVL: Forecast 2-23-06
PLCE: Forecast 2-3-06
PPDI: Forecast mid-January.
RJF: Forecast 2-9-06
SNDK: Forecast 1-20-06
TECH: Forecast for January. Working to pinpoint the date.
XTO: Forecast 2-15-06
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 01/03/2006
MRVL (Marvell Technology--$58.17; +2.08; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits. Forecast to announce a split 2-23-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 2-26-04 at $42.90.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvl.html
After Hours: $58.45
STATUS: Test breakout. MRVL made us some solid money earlier this year and then came back in mid-December to test, holding some support at 55 the past two weeks, working laterally over that level on low volume. Tuesday MRVL reached down once more then rebounded on rising, above average volume. Strong leader, and looking for continued solid trade as MRVL continues the rebound and the recovery.
Volume: 4.39M Avg Volume: 3.82M
BUY POINT: $58.65 Volume=4.5M Target=$66.95 Stop=$56.95
POSITION: UVM EY - May $57.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrvl.html
Play Date: 01/03/2006
UPL (Ultra Petroleum--$58.05; +2.25; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Forecast to announce a split 2-8-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-9-05 at $51.60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/upl.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. UPL has fully tested the early December to mid-December run higher following the breakout from its 8 week cup with handle base. Nice, easy low volume test, then a bounce higher Tuesday on rising though still below average volume. Lots of nice characteristics: used the 50 day EMA (54.55) as support for the base, positive accumulation, ready for a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.395M Avg Volume: 2.026M
BUY POINT: $58.57 Volume=3M Target=$69.95 Stop=$56.15
POSITION: UPL FL - June $60c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/upl.html
Play Date: 01/03/2006
XTO (XTO Energy--$45.65; +1.71; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Forecast to announce 2-15-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4:3 split 2-16-05 at $39.10. Before that a 5:4 split on 2-17-04 at 28.50. Before that a 4:3 split on 2-18-03 at 24.20. You get the picture.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Okay. XTO tumbled lower late in December, but it held the 50 day EMA (43.47) on the test and then vaulted higher Tuesday on strong volume. This move tested the mid-December breakout from a 10 week double bottom with handle base. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying in the base, setting up the move higher. Looking for the solid Tuesday move to continue on volume as energy has set up again to be a leader in 2006.
Volume: 5.445M Avg Volume: 4.375M
BUY POINT: $46.08 Volume=5.2M Target=$52.99 Stop=$44.62
POSITION: XTO EI - May $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays ready to move:
Play Date: 12/27/2005
COF (Capital One Financial--$86.98; +0.58; optionable): Credit services. Forecast third week of January 2006. Pinpointing exact date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:1 split on 4-29-99 at $170. A bit early perhaps, but a good run into January will put it at a level where a 2:1 split would give it about the same ratio.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cof.html
After Hours: $86.98
STATUS: Breakout test. Big reach lower Tuesday to support at 84 and then rebounding on to post a gain. Rising volume on the rebound but still below average. That looks to be the shakeout that sets up the continued breakout move higher. To recap: COF broke out two weeks back, moving out of its 20 week cup with handle base on a strong shot of volume. Last week it made a more definitive break higher and then moved laterally for three sessions. It got the dips, falling to near support on low volume. Like the first test of a breakout as an entry point because when it turns back up that tells us the big money is back in the stock. Strong money flow and a nice relative strength breakout with the price.
Volume: 1.934M Avg Volume: 2.462M
BUY POINT: $88.15 Volume=3M Target=$99.65 Stop=$86.15
POSITION: COF CQ - Mar. $85c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cof.html
Play Date: 12/10/2005
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$69.01; +1.14; optionable): Heavy construction. Forecast to announce a split 2-7-06 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-13-02 at $63.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume jumped back above average Tuesday as JEC gapped higher, just eclipsing the recent closing highs by the bell. Very nice action and looks ready to resume the breakout move. To recap: Nice breakout from its 11 week ascending base that formed using the 50 day EMA (65.22) to make higher lows. Strong 5 to 1 accumulation in the base shows practically all buying. This test is giving us a very nice entry point. Nice test lower last Friday to fill most of the gap higher, and with that behind it JEC is free to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 481.4K Avg Volume: 367.797K
BUY POINT: 69.22 (orig. $66.75) Volume=610K Target=$79.95 Stop=$64.45
POSITION: JEC DK - Apr. $65c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jec.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/29/2005
JWN (Nordstrom--$37.72; +0.32; optionable): High end department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jwn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Similar to many stocks, JWN reached way down intraday, undercutting the 50 day EMA (36.57) and rebounding on above average volume to post a modest gain. Nice shakeout action in the handle of its base, holding up very well. As with many, this reach lower acted to flush out a lot of players on the whiplash action. To recap: JWN is working on an elongated 6 month handle to its 20 week base. Outstanding 10 to 2 accumulation shows great tons of buying, setting up the move higher if it can get the buyers to push it higher to start 2006 and break it to a new all-time high. Top rated fundamentally as well as technically.
Volume: 2.385M Avg Volume: 2.092M
BUY POINT: $38.21 Volume=3.2M Target=$43.95 Stop=$37.08
POSITION: JWN DG - Apr. $35c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jwn.html
Play Date: 12/28/2005
LUFK (Lufkin Industries--$51.34; +1.47; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lufk.html
STATUS: Test breakout. LUFK has held the 50 day EMA (48.78) on this breakout test, coming back on very low, below average volume and then showing a nice, above average volume jump off that level Tuesday. Looks ready to continue the breakout move and make us some money. To recap: LUFK checked up at the early December breakout point, testing lower intraday Wednesday and then rebounding to show a doji on the candlestick chart, often an indication a pullback has concluded. It does not hurt that LUFK filled the early December gap on the intraday test lower. Energy stocks are coming back to life after this correction, and LUFK has set itself back up for a move higher to continue the breakout. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying in the base that set up the breakout and the run higher. Nice test and now it is ready. Strong money flow complements the accumulation.
Volume: 261.653K Avg Volume: 248.306K
BUY POINT: $51.77 Volume=376K Target=$59.55 Stop=$49.89
POSITION: UFR CJ - Mar. $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lufk.html
Play Date: 12/08/2005
PCP (Precision Castparts--$52.90; +1.09; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong shot of above average volume Tuesday after a couple of weeks of below average trade sent PCP above the recent highs. Not exactly a breakaway move but it is set up to make the break and move to a new all-time high. To recap: Showing some very good action the past week as volume picked, then surging Tuesday. Nice 13 week base that is setting PCP up for a new all-time high. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation is setting up the breakout from this nicely formed pattern.
Volume: 1.069M Avg Volume: 781.609K
BUY POINT: New: $53.05 (orig. $52.48) Volume=1.3M Target=$60 Stop=$50.65
POSITION: PCP CJ - Mar. $50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pcp.html
Play Date: 12/29/2005
TKC (Turkcell--$15.83; +0.47; optionable): Telecom communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tkc.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Good price move Tuesday, but volume did not move with the stock, keeping us from moving in. Strong trade Thursday; if TKC can continue on some better volume it is a buy. To recap: Volume surged back above average Thursday as TKC moved off of the 50 day EMA (14.94), heading toward the breakout from its 12 month base. Top rated fundamentally, meshing nicely with the well-formed base. Strong 14 to 5 accumulation shows plenty of buying, setting up the breakout. Ready to take some positions as TKC continues the move higher and then again on the move past 16.
Volume: 247.2K Avg Volume: 453.005K
BUY POINT: $15.88 Volume=475K Target=$19 Stop=$15.21
POSITION: TKC DC - Apr. $15c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tkc.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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