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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good Movers: CDIS; CRDN; DAKT; DRI; GRP; LUK; MRVL; MSCC; PCP; SNDK; STJ
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 01/07/2006
MCRS (Micros System--$51.35; +1.87; optionable): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mcrs.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After splitting in February, MCRS rallied into June and then formed the current 6 month double bottom with handle base. It broke out in early December but then was caught in the selling, fading back to the 50 day EMA (48.21), holding that level for a week, and then rebounding Friday on a strong shot of rising, above average volume. Strong 9 to 5 accumulation in the base (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume) shows the buying necessary to set up a breakout and run higher. Excellent money flow is surging higher, complementing the accumulation. A market leader ready for a new all-time high. We are ready to start the play on a move through the buy point and will look to add when MCRS tests that move.
Volume: 480.52K Avg Volume: 258.934K
BUY POINT: $51.75 Volume=350K Target=$59.55 Stop=$49.05
POSITION: MFK FJ - June $50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mcrs.html
Play Date: 01/07/2006
TIE (Titanium Metals--$73.24; +3.24; optionable): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tie.html
After Hours: $73.50
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong run in 2005 from this strong market leader in both fundamentals and technical pattern. After that move it slipped into the current 4 week pattern that formed over the 18 day EMA (67.09). Nice low volume consolidation and then a break higher this week on solid trade. Positive accumulation in the little base and starting back up. Can eat up large chunks of ground each day, and it looks to have started the next leg.
Volume: 933.1K Avg Volume: 825.973K
BUY POINT: $73.89 Volume=1.2M Target=$84.95 Stop=$71.44
POSITION: TIE CO - Mar. $75c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tie.html
Continuing Leader Play:
Play Date: 01/04/2006
INFY (Infosys Technologies--$81.42; +0.99; optionable): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/infy.html
After Hours: $80
Earnings: 1-11-06
STATUS: Breakout test. Still one of our favorite plays as INFY makes the first substantial test of the mid-December breakout from its 5.5 month double bottom with handle base. Volume jumped Friday as INFY tapped support at 80 yet once again and rebounded for a nice gain on solid trade. It is right at the buy point and showing good volume. There was what looks to be an errant after hours trade Friday and thus the lower price. It certainly looks ready for this week.
Volume: 938.004K Avg Volume: 647.994K
BUY POINT: $81.35 Volume=1M Target=$91.55 Stop=$79.88
POSITION: IUN DP - Apr. $80c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/infy.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ANSS: Forecast 2-16-06 before the open.
ATW: Researching to pinpoint date.
CLE: Forecast 1-26-06
COF: New information. Forecast 1-19-06 after the close
CTSH: Forecast 1-30-06
DATK: New information. Hearing that an announcement possible in mid-February. Looking to pinpoint the date (originally forecast early January).
DBRN: Researching next date, but looking at early February.
DRI: Forecast third week in March.
GIL: Forecast February 1
GILD: Forecast 1-25-06
JEC: Forecast 2-7-06
LCAV: Forecast 1-24-06
LM: Tentatively forecast 1-24-06
LUFK: Tentatively forecast in March
MATR: Forecast 1-5-06. No announcement last week but a strong move higher.
MRVL: Forecast 2-23-06
NOV: Working to pinpoint a date.
PLCE: Forecast 2-3-06
PPDI: Forecast mid-January.
RJF: Forecast 2-9-06
SNDK: Forecast 1-20-06
TECH: Forecast for 1-31-06 before the open.
UPL: Forecast 2-8-06
XTO: Forecast 2-15-06
New Pre-Announcement Plays: The pullback in energy is giving us some good entry points.
Play Date: 01/07/2006
AAPL (Apple Computer--$76.3; +1.92; optionable): iPods, computers. Forecast to announce a split 1-18-06 with earnings or 2-10-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-11-05 at $78.40.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
After Hours: $76.52
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After a strong run higher from October to December, AAPL needed a consolidation and it has taken that the past four weeks, working mostly laterally on below average volume. It used the late November high at 70 as support for the two legs of the current pattern. Sold a ton of iPods over Christmas, and Friday AAPL cleared resistance in the short pattern, breaking higher on stronger, above average volume. Solid 2 to 0 accumulation in the base, and we are willing to catch AAPL's momentum as it continues higher and moves toward a split announcement.
Volume: 25.163M Avg Volume: 25.754M
BUY POINT: $76.75 Volume=30M Target=$92 Stop=$73.89
POSITION: QAA DO - Apr. $75c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aapl.html
Play Date: 01/07/2006
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$51.35; +1.06; optionable): Custom IT software. Forecast to possibly announce a split late January with earnings, but looking hard at 2-10-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-12-04 at $47. Prior to that a 3:1 split on 3-5-2003 at 69.80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
After Hours: $51.36
STATUS: Breakout test. CTSH surged out of an 18 week cup with handle base in mid-December on a solid shot of volume. It peaked at 52 before the market got the late year dips. It came back to support at 50, held last week, and then rebounded off the 18 day EMA (50.43) to end the week. Excellent 9 to 4 accumulation in the base shows a lot of buying as CTSH set up for a new all-time high. It did not get the volume of the rest of the market to end the week, and that makes us look for the move this week as money continues to rotate through the market. Solid leader with solid fundamentals to match its pattern.
Volume: 975.03K Avg Volume: 1.478M
BUY POINT: $51.49 Volume=2M Target=$59.45 Stop=$50.21
POSITION: UPU DJ - Apr. $50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctsh.html
Play Date: 01/07/2006
EOG (EOG Resources--$77.80; +1.72; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Forecast to announce a split 2-3-06.
BACKGROUND: Announced its only split (2:1) on 2-2-05 at $76.60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eog.html
After Hours: $77.77
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After a heck of a January to October move, EOG needed a rest and slipped into the current 15 week base, consolidating for the next break higher to a new all-time high. Strong 4 to 1 accumulation shows plenty of buying as the stock consolidated. Last week it jumped off the 50 day EMA (73.54) on strong volume as money moved in to energy to start the week. A good rest to close the week, holding above the 10 day EMA (76.57) sets up the break higher. Solid fundamentals to go along with the pattern. Primed for a break higher on volume this coming week.
Volume: 2.818M Avg Volume: 2.977M
BUY POINT: $79.25 Volume=4.5M Target=$91.45 Stop=$75.98
POSITION: EOG DP - Apr. $80c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eog.html
Play Date: 01/07/2006
WIRE (Encore Wire--$24.89; +0.27; optionable): Copper electrical building wire and cable. Potential split in third week of January.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split 7-20-04 at $22.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wire.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. WIRE is working on the handle to a big 21 month base sporting outstanding 25 to 11 accumulation. Indeed, the handle has formed its own 7 week cup with handle, using the rising 50 day EMA (22.67) as support. WIRE has solid fundamentals to complement its strong technical pattern, the best of the group in a strong sector. Solid early move last week, then resting as the week closed out; part of that rotation the market is showing. Looking for buyers to come back in this week and send WIRE higher on a strong volume breakout.
Volume: 261.553K Avg Volume: 334.884K
BUY POINT: $25.38 Volume=502K Target=$30.45 Stop=$23.88
POSITION: EJO EE - May $25c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wire.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays ready to move:
Play Date: 01/03/2006
UPL (Ultra Petroleum--$58.27; +1.37; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Forecast to announce a split 2-8-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-9-05 at $51.60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/upl.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Tried to make the move Friday, reaching up to 59.84 intraday. It faded back but still held a nice gain. Problem is, volume was very low. That kept us on the sidelines, but UPL is still set up very, very well for the break higher, riding the 18 day EMA (56.91) and using that level to make a higher low. Looks ready; just add volume. To recap: UPL has fully tested the early December to mid-December run higher following the breakout from its 8 week cup with handle base. Lots of nice characteristics: used the 50 day EMA (54.91) as support for the base, positive accumulation, ready for a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.15M Avg Volume: 1.922M
BUY POINT: $58.57 Volume=3M Target=$69.95 Stop=$56.15
POSITION: UPL FL - June $60c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/upl.html
Play Date: 01/03/2006
XTO (XTO Energy--$45.95; +0.96; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Forecast to announce 2-15-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4:3 split 2-16-05 at $39.10. Before that a 5:4 split on 2-17-04 at 28.50. Before that a 4:3 split on 2-18-03 at 24.20. You get the picture.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
After Hours: $45.47
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Very similar to UPL, XTO is holding above the 18 day EMA (45.02), making a higher low and setting up for the breakout to a new all-time high. Volume backed off to close the week as money rotated around the market, but XTO is set up nicely to continue the move higher. Just want to see the volume come back in as it moves through the buy point this week. To recap: XTO tumbled lower late in December, but it held the 50 day EMA (43.69) on the test and then vaulted higher Tuesday on strong volume. This move tested the mid-December breakout from a 10 week double bottom with handle base. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying in the base, setting up the move higher.
Volume: 4.03M Avg Volume: 4.344M
BUY POINT: $46.08 Volume=5.2M Target=$52.99 Stop=$44.62
POSITION: XTO EI - May $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/05/2006
VSAT (Viasat--$27.80; +0.30; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsat.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strongest volume of the week Friday as VSAT moved off the 10 day EMA (27.12) heading toward a new 5 year high. Ready to make its move. To recap: Excellent 13 week base has formed using the 50 day EMA (26.38) as support; the strong stocks appear to be doing that as the market sold in December. Superb 5 to 1 accumulation in the base shows virtually all buying as it sets up for the breakout to a 5 year high. Surging money flow. Familiar volume swell this week, a good thing to see as a stock nears the breakout point. Strong pattern and strong fundamentals make this a very enticing play this week.
Volume: 211.787K Avg Volume: 181.928K
BUY POINT: $28.12 Volume=272K Target=$33.75 Stop=$26.78
POSITION: IQS EE - May $25c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vsat.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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