|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good Movers: BRL; CDIS; AAPL; AGN; ATW; CLE; GRP; ISRG; MRVL; NBR; NOV
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 01/10/2006
JOSB (Joseph A. Banks--$48.78; -0.03; optionable): Apparel stores. Splits 5:4 on 2-16-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/josb.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Rocky ride for JOSB to start December, gapping lower, but then a big recovery in January, gapping higher. A bit of expectations management got a bit too aggressive with the lowered guidance and then the strong sales. In any event, the action formed a 6 week cup with handle with JOSB moving laterally the past three sessions on lower volume. This base immediately follows the breakout from an 18 week double bottom with handle base. Top rated in its group with strong fundamentals to go along with its technical position setting it up for a new high. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the current pattern shows overall accumulation as JOSB sets up for the next move.
Volume: 338.217K Avg Volume: 465.177K
BUY POINT: $49.55 Volume=525K Target=$56.98 Stop=$47.89
POSITION: QZS DJ - Apr. $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/josb.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 01/10/2006
CRM (Salesforce.com--$38.25; -0.28; optionable): On demand customer relationship management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crm.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Couldn't resist this one as it has a lot of momentum, is making a great test of a breakout gap, and it has made is money before. CRM gapped higher Friday on an analyst upgrade. That move extended a nice surge off the 50 day EMA (31.88) to start the year after a three week pullback to that level. CRM has come back to test that move, dropping to the 10 day EMA (36.28) intraday to fill the gap and then rebounding to recoup most of the loss. Nice quick fill of the gap and looking for this strong stock to continue higher. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout on the move.
Volume: 3.07M Avg Volume: 1.602M
BUY POINT: $38.65 Volume=2.4M Target=$45.95 Stop=$36.87
POSITION: CRM EG - May $35c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/crm.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Lots of stocks in position for split announcements in January and February. We have some good information on many though some are wild cards, i.e. no split history but hearing word of a possible split announcement. All are good leadership quality stocks that can make us money if they show us the breakout moves.
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ANSS: Forecast 2-16-06 before the open.
AAPL: Forecast 1-18-06 or 2-10-06.
ATW: Researching to pinpoint date.
CLE: Forecast 1-26-06
COF: Forecast 1-19-06 after the close
CTSH: Forecast 1-30-06 or 2-10-06
DATK: Hearing that an announcement is possible in mid-February. Looking to pinpoint the date (originally forecast early January).
DBRN: Researching next date, but looking at early February.
DRI: Forecast third week in March.
EOG: Forecast 2-3-06
GIL: Forecast February 1
GILD: Forecast 1-25-06
JEC: Forecast 2-7-06
LCAV: Forecast 1-24-06
LM: Tentatively forecast 1-24-06
LUFK: Tentatively forecast in March
MRVL: Forecast 2-23-06
NOV: Working to pinpoint a date.
PLCE: Forecast 2-3-06
PPDI: Forecast mid-January.
RJF: Forecast 2-9-06
SNDK: Forecast 1-20-06
TECH: Forecast for 1-31-06 before the open.
UPL: Forecast 2-8-06
WIRE: Forecast third week of January
XTO: Forecast 2-15-06
New Pre-Announcement Plays: The pullback in energy is giving us some good entry points.
Play Date: 01/10/2006
ACI (Arch Coal--$83.71; +0.09; optionable): Mining, processing, and marketing low-sulfur coal. Forecast for a possible split 2-10-06 before the open.
BACKGROUND: No splits in ACI's history. Always a first and it is in the 'zone' where energy stocks have been announcing.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aci.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice, orderly and low volume test of the 10 day EMA (82.72) as ACI eases back to test the January 3 breakout from a short 8 week base that formed after a strong run from February 2005 through the beginning of November. Even as it consolidated it was being bought; strong 4 to 1 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows that to be the case. Strong money flow complements the accumulation. A leader with solid fundamentals to go with the technical pattern.
Volume: 1.105M Avg Volume: 2.266M
BUY POINT: $84.92 Volume=2.8M Target=$100 Stop=$82.54
POSITION: ACI DQ - Apr. $85c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aci.html
Play Date: 01/10/2006
BTU (Peabody Energy--$87.05; +0.07; optionable): Coal. Potentially with earnings third week of January but looking at 3-1-06 as a firmer date. Either way the pattern is good.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 3-2-05 at $95.10.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/btu.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Another coal stock with a pretty pattern. BTU is working laterally in a narrow range, holding above the 10 day EMA (85.70) as it consolidates the early January break higher from a 14 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (81.41) support level. Strong 5 to 2 accumulation shows plenty of buying during the consolidation and setting up the breakout and run higher. Just being patient and waiting for money to rotate back into this sector and send it higher.
Volume: 2.072M Avg Volume: 2.733M
BUY POINT: $89.24 Volume=4M Target=$102.75 Stop=$85.32
POSITION: BTU FF - June $90c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/btu.html
Play Date: 01/10/2006
ODP (Office Depot--$32.26; +0.84; optionable): Office supplies. Forecast 2-23-06.
BACKGROUND: Announced its only split, a 3:2 on 2-25-00 at $35. Something of a wildcard.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/odp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice volume returned Tuesday as ODP started the breakout move from its 17 week base. Strong volume to start the year, but traded backed off. That was no problem Tuesday as ODP stared a solid breakout move. The best in its sector and solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the base. Nice buying and looking for continued strong trade as ODP continues on its breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 3.577M Avg Volume: 2.427M
BUY POINT: $32.48 Volume=2.7M Target=$37.95 Stop=$31.24
POSITION: ODP GF - July $30c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/odp.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays ready to move:
Play Date: 01/07/2006
EOG (EOG Resources--$78; -0.16; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Forecast to announce a split 2-3-06.
BACKGROUND: Announced its only split (2:1) on 2-2-05 at $76.60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eog.html
After Hours: $78.03
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Tried to make the move Tuesday but volume stayed below average and EOG faded back to close flat. Nice hammer doji, however, as EOG continues to set up for the breakout move. To recap: After a heck of a January to October move, EOG needed a rest and slipped into the current 15 week base, consolidating for the next break higher to a new all-time high. Strong 4 to 1 accumulation shows plenty of buying as the stock consolidated. Last week it jumped off the 50 day EMA (73.89) on strong volume as money moved in to energy to start the week. A good rest to close the week, holding above the 10 day EMA (77.07) sets up the break higher. Solid fundamentals to go along with the pattern. Primed for a break higher on volume this week.
Volume: 2.569M Avg Volume: 2.921M
BUY POINT: $79.25 Volume=4.5M Target=$91.45 Stop=$75.98
POSITION: EOG DP - Apr. $80c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eog.html
Play Date: 01/09/2006
TECH (Techne--$58.85; -0.15; optionable): Biotechnology. Potential announcement 1-31-06 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 11-9-200 at $105. The one we are focusing on is the prior one, a 2:1 split announced 10-23-97 at $40. After the tech boom stocks are announcing at more sane levels.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tech.html
STATUS: Saucer w/handle. After the solid break higher Monday, TECH took Tuesday off for the Alito hearings, closing flat on lower below average volume. Still in super shape for a continued break higher. To recap: Monday TECH was making the breakout from a 17 week base, moving to a new 5 year high (a fairly familiar occurrence of late for leaders). Positive 6 to 4 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) shows the buyers in control, pushing TECH to the breakout. Volume has surged the past three weeks, something that you like to see as buyers jump into a stocks. Biotechs are discovering new strength here, one of the areas money is rotating to. Looking to enter as TECH continues higher on solid trade.
Volume: 254.318K Avg Volume: 252.725K
BUY POINT: $59.22 Volume=379K Target=$69.65 Stop=$56.88
POSITION: TGQ DL - Apr. $60c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tech.html
Play Date: 01/09/2006
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$54.98; +0.82; optionable): The Home Depot for the farm and ranch. Potential to announce a split 2-1-06, but likes July. Hard to pass up the pattern and technical strength.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 7-21-03 at $49.50. Prior to that it announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-18-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. This stock price was $57.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsco.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Continued higher Tuesday but on continued below average volume as it moves up toward the buy point. Excellent pattern and action, but will need to see more trade as it makes the breakout move as that will show us the big buyers are moving in and driving it higher. To recap: TSCO formed a 16 week reverse head and shoulders base and broke higher in late November, early December on an excellent volume surge. It rallied to 57 and then spent the rest of December and early this year testing back to the 50 day EMA (52.51) on low volume. TSCO did not participate in last week's extravaganza, but Monday it jumped off the 50 day. Looking for volume to continue to strengthen as TSCO continues the move. Excellent 8 to 2 accumulation shows tremendous buying in the consolidation. Strong money flow as well, moving higher ahead of price.
Volume: 228.826K Avg Volume: 362.539K
BUY POINT: $55.25 Volume=547K Target=$63.55 Stop=$53.55
POSITION: QTF GK - July $55c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsco.html
Play Date: 01/03/2006
XTO (XTO Energy--$45.56; +0.01; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Forecast to announce 2-15-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4:3 split 2-16-05 at $39.10. Before that a 5:4 split on 2-17-04 at 28.50. Before that a 4:3 split on 2-18-03 at 24.20. You get the picture.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume was back up to average Tuesday as XTO showed a hammer doji on the 10 day EMA (45.33), setting up for breakout. It stalled again at 46.30 on the high; we want to see it break that level on its strong trade. To recap: Holding above the 18 day EMA (45.13), making a higher low and setting up for the breakout to a new all-time high. Volume backed off to close last week as money rotated around the market, but XTO is set up nicely to continue the move higher. XTO tumbled lower late in December, but it held the 50 day EMA (43.84) on the test and then vaulted higher Tuesday on strong volume. This move tested the mid-December breakout from a 10 week double bottom with handle base. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying in the base, setting up the move higher.
Volume: 3.868M Avg Volume: 4.23M
BUY POINT: New: $46.44 (orig. $46.08) Volume=5.2M Target=$52.99 Stop=$44.62
POSITION: XTO EI - May $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/07/2006
TIE (Titanium Metals--$73.99; -0.36; optionable): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tie.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Not bad. Tapped lower to the 10 day EMA (70.49) on the intraday low and rebounded for a modest loss. Volume remained above average though slightly lower. Good shakeout and that looks to have set it up for the break higher. To recap: Strong run in 2005 from this strong market leader in both fundamentals and technical pattern. After that move it slipped into the current 4 week pattern that formed over the 18 day EMA (68.50). Nice low volume consolidation and then a break higher this week on solid trade. Positive accumulation in the little base and starting back up. Can eat up large chunks of ground each day, and it looks to have started the next leg.
Volume: 1.02M Avg Volume: 836.627K
BUY POINT: New: $74.12 (orig. $73.89) Volume=1.2M Target=$84.95 Stop=$71.44
POSITION: TIE CO - Mar. $75c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tie.html
Play Date: 01/05/2006
VSAT (Viasat--$27.84; -0.12; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsat.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume fell off this week, dropping well below average as VSAT tested the breakout Monday and then faded a bit Tuesday. Nice test down to the 10 day EMA (27.38) on the low and rebounded for a very modest loss. Nice shakeout setting up the breakout. If the stock starts to fly you must buy. If the glove does not fit you must . . . To recap: Excellent 13 week base has formed using the 50 day EMA (26.49) as support; the strong stocks appear to be doing that as the market sold in December. Superb 5 to 1 accumulation in the base shows virtually all buying as it sets up for the breakout to a 5 year high. Surging money flow. Familiar volume swell this week, a good thing to see as a stock nears the breakout point. Strong pattern and strong fundamentals make this a very enticing play this week.
Volume: 97.31K Avg Volume: 171.353K
BUY POINT: $28.12 Volume=272K Target=$33.75 Stop=$26.78
POSITION: IQS EE - May $25c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vsat.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
