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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good Movers: GILD; HYSL; ISRG; LCAV
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 01/12/2006
TALX (Talx Corp.--$52.07; -0.18; optionable): Enterprise software. Splits 3:2 on 1-18-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/talx.html
After Hours: $52.04
STATUS: Breakout test. With just a few days left ahead of its split, TALX is making a modest test back from a strong early January move. It has eased back on lower volume, showing a nice doji Thursday on below average trade. Strongest stock in its sector both technically and fundamentally, and it is also a market leader. It may test back a bit more Friday, but we are looking for it to move higher into its split as well as post split.
Volume: 229.499K Avg Volume: 274.742K
BUY POINT: $52.88 Volume=400K Target=$60 Stop=$50.98
POSITION: TUB CJ - Mar. $50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/talx.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 01/12/2006
NIHD (NII Hldgs--$46.01; -0.69; optionable): Telecom wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nihd.html
After Hours: $46
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. NIHD has formed a short 4 week base, tapping the 50 day EMA (44.37) to end December, and then bouncing up off of that support. It broke higher in early November from a volatile 12 week base. It ran to 48, splitting along the way, and then fell into the current pullback. A good bounce to start the year then a week long lateral move over the 18 day EMA (45.76) on very low, below average volume. Solid money flow is still moving higher and positive accumulation in the short base. Solid technically and solid fundamentals. Testing the 18 day EMA Thursday and looking ready to break higher after this test.
Volume: 788.532K Avg Volume: 1.637M
BUY POINT: $47.15 Volume=2.1M Target=$55.95 Stop=$45.55
POSITION: QHQ FI - June $45c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nihd.html
Play Date: 01/12/2006
QSII (Quality Systems--$80.60; -2.50; optionable): Healthcare information software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qsii.html
STATUS: Cup. Starting the pullback in its short 7 week base as QSII sets up for a breakout to its next all-time high. It used the 50 day EMA (77.41) as the support for the pattern, an indication that the big money is hanging with it even as it rests. May spend another session or two making the pullback, but we want to be ready if it takes off quickly. Positive accumulation in this pattern. The best in its sector with strong fundamentals to go with the pattern.
Volume: 290.49K Avg Volume: 275.836K
BUY POINT: $81.25 Volume=414K Target=$93.45 Stop=$78.89
POSITION: QCR FP - June $80c (55 delta) &/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qsii.html
Continuing Leader Play:
Play Date: 01/10/2006
CRM (Salesforce.com--$38.25; -0.02; optionable): On demand customer relationship management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crm.html
After Hours: $38.25
STATUS: Breakout test. A tight doji Thursday on lower, below average volume as CRM holds steady in a selling market, setting up for the next move higher after reaching lower Tuesday to fill the gap from last week. Like how it is holding its own in a weaker, market, ready to lead the next move. To recap: CRM gapped higher last Friday on an analyst upgrade. That move extended a nice surge off the 50 day EMA (32.37) to start the year after a three week pullback to that level. CRM has filled the gap at the 10 day EMA and rebounded immediately. Nice quick fill of the gap and looking for this strong stock to continue higher. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout on the move.
Volume: 1.228M Avg Volume: 1.615M
BUY POINT: $38.65 Volume=2.4M Target=$45.95 Stop=$36.87
POSITION: CRM EG - May $35c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/crm.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Lots of stocks in position for split announcements in January and February. We have some good information on many though some are wild cards, i.e. no split history but hearing word of a possible split announcement. All are good leadership quality stocks that can make us money if they show us the breakout moves.
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ANSS: Forecast 2-16-06 before the open.
AAPL: Forecast 1-18-06 or 2-10-06.
ACI: Forecast 2-10-06
ATW: Researching to pinpoint date.
CLE: Forecast 1-26-06
COF: Forecast 1-19-06 after the close
CTSH: Forecast 1-30-06 or 2-10-06
DATK: Hearing that an announcement is possible in mid-February. Looking to pinpoint the date (originally forecast early January).
DBRN: Researching next date, but looking at early February.
DRI: Forecast third week in March.
EOG: Forecast 2-3-06
GIL: Forecast February 1
GILD: Forecast 1-25-06
JEC: Forecast 2-7-06
LCAV: Forecast 1-24-06
LM: Tentatively forecast 1-24-06
LUFK: Tentatively forecast in March
MRVL: Forecast 2-23-06
NOV: Working to pinpoint a date.
ODP: Forecast 2-23-06
PLCE: Forecast 2-3-06
PPDI: Forecast mid-January.
RJF: Forecast 2-9-06
SNDK: Forecast 1-20-06
TECH: Forecast for 1-31-06 before the open.
UPL: Forecast 2-8-06
WIRE: Forecast third week of January
XTO: Forecast 2-15-06
New Pre-Announcement Plays: The pullback in energy is still giving us some good entry points.
Play Date: 01/12/2006
FTO (Frontier Oil--$40.73; -0.69; optionable): Oil and gas refining and marketing. Looking for a mid-April announcement as we hear FTO liked the response after its last split.
BACKGROUND: Announced its only 2:1 split on 4-15-05 (tax day) at $39.40.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fto.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. FTO is forming a prolonged 6 week handle to its 14 week base, moving laterally along the 10 day EMA (40.35). Nice pattern that has formed just below and all-time high. A strong market leader that needed this rest. The leader in its sector with strong fundamentals and a very strong pattern. Volume has yet to swell on this move, and typically trade will jump just before a stock makes its breakout.
Volume: 963.5K Avg Volume: 1.306M
BUY POINT: $42.12 Volume=2M Target=$50 Stop=$40.21
POSITION: FTO GH - July $40c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fto.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays ready to move: Still looking at energy
Play Date: 01/07/2006
EOG (EOG Resources--$78.3; -0.04; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Forecast to announce a split 2-3-06.
BACKGROUND: Announced its only split (2:1) on 2-2-05 at $76.60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eog.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume jumped Thursday as EOG tried the breakout move, but as with many energy stocks (and indeed most stocks), it faded back to close flat. Still a great pattern and still ready and still looking nice. To recap: After a heck of a January to October move, EOG needed a rest and slipped into the current 15 week base, consolidating for the next break higher to a new all-time high. Strong 4 to 1 accumulation shows plenty of buying as the stock consolidated. It jumped off the 50 day EMA (74.23) on strong volume to start the year as money moved in to energy. It has bunched up along the 18 day EMA, ready to make the next move. Solid fundamentals to go along with the pattern. Primed for a break higher.
Volume: 3.351M Avg Volume: 2.925M
BUY POINT: $79.25 Volume=4.5M Target=$91.45 Stop=$75.98
POSITION: EOG DP - Apr. $80c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eog.html
Play Date: 01/03/2006
XTO (XTO Energy--$45.11; -0.07; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Forecast to announce 2-15-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4:3 split 2-16-05 at $39.10. Before that a 5:4 split on 2-17-04 at 28.50. Before that a 4:3 split on 2-18-03 at 24.20. You get the picture.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. The pattern has turned into a nice handle to a 14 week base. Strong volume the past two weeks, backing off some this week but showing a nice spike Wednesday as it reached lower and rebounded off the 50 day EMA. Just biding its time, setting up for the move. To recap: Holding above the 18 day EMA (45.13), making a higher low and setting up for the breakout to a new all-time high. Volume backed off to close last week as money rotated around the market, but XTO is set up nicely to continue the move higher. XTO tumbled lower late in December, but it held the 50 day EMA (43.94) on the test and then vaulted higher Tuesday on strong volume. This move tested the mid-December breakout from a 10 week double bottom with handle base. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying in the base, setting up the move higher.
Volume: 3.331M Avg Volume: 4.228M
BUY POINT: New: $46.44 (orig. $46.08) Volume=5.2M Target=$52.99 Stop=$44.62
POSITION: XTO EI - May $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/10/2006
JOSB (Joseph A. Banks--$48.32; -0.52; optionable): Apparel stores. Splits 5:4 on 2-16-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/josb.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Very low, below average volume as JOSB works laterally in a very flat, tight handle to its base. Being patient and letting it show us the move. Like how it did not sell in a weak overall market. To recap: Rocky ride for JOSB to start December, gapping lower, but then a big recovery in January, gapping higher. A bit of expectations management got a bit too aggressive with the lowered guidance and then the strong sales. In any event, the action formed a 6 week cup with handle with JOSB moving laterally the past three sessions on lower volume. This base immediately follows the breakout from an 18 week double bottom with handle base. Top rated in its group with strong fundamentals to go along with its technical position setting it up for a new high. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the current pattern shows overall accumulation as JOSB sets up for the next move.
Volume: 242.329K Avg Volume: 465.464K
BUY POINT: $49.55 Volume=525K Target=$56.98 Stop=$47.89
POSITION: QZS DJ - Apr. $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/josb.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/11/2006
JCOM (J2 Global Communications--$46.81; -0.69; optionable): Outsourced & value-added messaging and communications services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcom.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped lower Thursday but very low volume and it held above the 10 day EMA (46.52) on the close. This is acting as a further shakeout in the handle to its nice base. To recap: JCOM is working sideways just below resistance at 48, forming the handle to a short but nicely formed 6 week base. The current pattern is the tail end of a larger, 27 month base; a breakout takes it to a new all-time high and puts it in great position to rally when that move occurs. A top rated stock from a technical and fundamental position. Want to see strong volume pour in as JCOM makes its breakout move.
Volume: 288.6K Avg Volume: 512.906K
BUY POINT: $48.28Volume=769K Target=$55.95 Stop=$46.32
POSITION: JQF FJ - June $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jcom.html
Play Date: 01/11/2006
VIP (Vimple Communication--$48.56; +0.41; optionable): Russian wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Gapped higher Thursday, but was up and down, filling the gap intraday and managing to recover to hold a modest gain on the close. Volume was lower but held just above average. Showing very good action with the Wednesday breakout, and Thursday was not that bad. Want to see it hold here and start back up to start the play. To recap: Volume surged Wednesday as VIP started the breakout from a nicely formed 14 week base sporting outstanding 7 to 1 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume). This base formed on the heels of a 10 month pattern that tried to make the breakout in September, but did not get too far. That looks to have simply weeded out the last sellers. VIP is starting to move and we are ready to move in as it continues higher on this strong trade.
Volume: 647.9K Avg Volume: 626.5K
BUY POINT: $48.57 Volume=900K Target=$55.95 Stop=$46.38
POSITION: VIP DI - Apr. $45c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vip.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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