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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 2 of 2
Full report issues Wednesday.
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BCRX; CMED; CRM; DO; GRP; HP
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 01/17/2006
CLZR (Canela--$15.91; -0.09; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clzr.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Medical appliances are getting some money spread their way, and with the likely selling in some technology it may get a bit more. CLZR shot higher 6 sessions back on very strong trade, breaking out from a 19 month cup with handle base, surging to 17 on the move. It has faded back the past week on very low, below average volume, coming to rest on the 10 day EMA (15.79) with a nice doji Tuesday. Surging money flow is leading the way higher. Relative strength broke out on the price breakout, a good corroboration of the breakout's strength. Nice test and looking for strong volume as it surges back up.
Volume: 101.53K Avg Volume: 317.471K
BUY POINT: $16.62 Volume=345K Target=$19.95 Stop=$15.64
POSITION: UKZ EC - May $15c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/clzr.html
Play Date: 01/17/2006
HAL (Halliburton--$70; +0.45; optionable): Oil and gas services and equipment.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hal.html
After Hours: $70
STATUS: Test breakout. HAL receives a lot of bad press, but it also makes a lot of money and that drives its stock price higher. Last week HAL broke out from a 13 week cup with handle base and rallied to 71.45 on the breakout move. It has slid laterally on lower volume the past two sessions, refusing to give up the breakout gain. It may take a couple more days of moving laterally and letting the 10 day EMA (67.80) rise to meet it, but with the tech earnings issues money may start rotating into energy faster than that. Thus we want to be ready when it makes its move. Excellent 6 to 1 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a lot of buying as HAL consolidated for the breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 5.339M Avg Volume: 6.953M
BUY POINT: $71.55 Volume=8M Target=$82.45 Stop=$68.65
POSITION: HAL GN - July $70c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hal.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 01/14/2006
ALNY (Alnylam Pharmaceuticals--$14.35; +0.18; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alny.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice action Tuesday, rising modestly on a boost in volume up to average. Very nice base and set to make a breakout as money rotates around the market this week. To recap: A very sweet base the past 4.5 months, using the 50 day EMA (12.82) more or less on the lows as support. This is ALNY's third base since coming to market in May 2004, setting it up for another good run higher. Excellent 6 to 1 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a lot of buying, and that is preparing ALNY to move higher once more. Nice volume as ALNY rallied to start last week, fading as the stock closed the week easing back. Making a higher low here in the handle, and that is setting it up for the breakout. Very strong technical position and solid fundamentals to match. Want to see volume surge as it makes the breakout move.
Volume: 149.757K Avg Volume: 141.198K
BUY POINT: $14.78 Volume=212K Target=$17.78 Stop=$13.75
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/alny.html
Play Date: 01/14/2006
CBST (Cubist Pharmaceuticals--$22.66; -0.04; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbst.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice tight doji with tale Tuesday that tapped the 18 day EMA (22.20) on the low and rebounded to close flat. Volume edged higher, indicating buyers moving back in on the test. Looking good and money likely to rotate into the drug sector further. To recap: CBST closed out last week with an intraday tap of the 10 day EMA and then a rebound for a modest loss, volume fading as it made this test. Something of a handle to a short 7 week base that formed after a strong breakout in early July that led to a 10 point run. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base shows nice buying even as it consolidates and sets up the next move. Used the 50 day EMA (21.63) as it tested back in December and early January, showing that the big money is supporting it. Nice test back to end the week, setting it up for the breakout. Solid fundamentals to go with its technical position.
Volume: 391.974K Avg Volume: 590.386K
BUY POINT: $23.38 Volume=886K Target=$28 Stop=$22.12
POSITION: UTU EX - May $22.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cbst.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACN 12/14 Test 18 30.84 +0.63 29.22 33.95 4.4M 2.7M 29.99
ADBE 12/22 Test BO 39.44 +0.6 38.99 44.75 4.2M 7M 38.05
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on low volume. Meeting some resistance at 39.49.
ALNY 01/14 Cup hdl 14.35 +0.18 14.78 17.78 150K 212K 13.75
Buy Not Hit.
AMTD 01/04 Test BO 25.61 -0.31 25.11 29.45 4.5M 5M 24.88
Current. Pullback on much loser, but average volume. May continue to test back to 10 day MVA (25.45)
BCRX 01/04 Test BO 22.41 +3.37 19.58 23.87 19M 4.5M 20.94
Current. Fast track approval of its bird flu drug gapped it
higher on volume. Some bad-mouth it, but great accumulation
pattenr and a continued breakout move.
BOOM 12/21 FlyPlat 35.21 +0.84 32.23 38.62 706K 2.1M 33.39
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back for a nice gain on rising volume. Continue with the uptrend.
BOOM 11/30 Test 50 35.21 +0.84 24.75 29.75 706K 2.1M 33.39
BRCM 01/05 Cup hdl 56.96 -0.29 50.14 59.95 9.3M 10M 56.85
Current. Held up well in the selling but was getting hit after
hours on INTC and other earnings.
CBST 01/14 Cup hdl 22.66 -0.04 23.38 28 392K 886K 22.12
Buy Not Hit.
CKCM 01/11 DB hdl 24.78 -0.61 26.31 31.62 270K 748K 25.21
Buy Not Issued. Suffering some on the YHOO earnings disappointment,
but easily holding above the 10 day EMA (24.20).
CMED 01/07 Cup hdl 40.66 +2.96 39.42 46.95 1.3M 1.2M 36.95
Current. Gapped up at the open and continued to soar on stronger above average volume making an all time high. Filled the gap intraday.
CRM 01/10 Test BO 38.99 +0.86 38.96 45.95 1.1M 2.4M 37.24
Entered today. Nice move up on rising, but below average volume.
CTXS 01/04 Test BO 30.41 -0.15 30.05 35.95 1.8M 2.2M 29.11
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on slightly above average volume. Still in good shape.
DO 12/20 Test 18 80.4 +2.38 71.27 81.95 2.4M 2.6M 78.92
Current.
ENER 01/03 Cup hdl 51.67 +0.46 43.65 50.65 1.4M 1.8M 49.49
Current.
EXPE 01/09 Test 50 25.87 +0.15 25.19 29.98 2.6M 2.5M 24.88
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on rising, but average volume.
FLSH 12/14 Rv H&S 35.11 +0.4 34.16 39.78 890K 1.6M 34.55
Current. Gapped down at the open tapping 33.78 at the intraday low and rallied back to hold the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Testing the break out. Should continue to rebound from here.
FLSH 10/01 Test 50 35.11 +0.4 30.61 35.98 890K 1M 34.55
Current.
FSL 01/11 Test 50 26.43 -0.38 27.48 32.95 1.2M 2.8M 26.31
Buy Not Hit. Showing a doji on the 18 day MVA on low volume. Came off the day's high of 26.85. Meeting resistance at 27.
GPRO 01/04 Asc Tri 51.36 -0.2 51.19 59.58 312K 699K 50.88
Current.
GRP 01/03 Test BO 49.15 +1.14 45.51 52.95 1.8M 1.7M 47.65
Current. Big gap up at the open, but gave some of it back holding at some resistance on stronger above average volume. May begin to level off holding the gain.
GS 01/09 Dbl btm 132.59 -0.67 131.72 140.25 3.6M 4.2M 130.32
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Meeting some resistance here.
HOLX 12/19 DB hdl 41.18 -0.51 39.33 45.85 436K 1.2M 38.89
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on low volume. May continue to pullback to 41.03.
HP 01/05 Test BO 72.28 +2.1 65.85 75.35 662K 725K 70.15
Target Hit. Took some interim gain as energy stocks gapped higher
on Nigerian worries. Letting rest of positions continue
to work for us.
LCAV 12/15 PreAnn 49.42 -0.62 50.28 61.32 256K 1M 47.92
Current.
LUK 11/07 Cup hdl 48.89 +0.02 44.86 52.95 212K 396K 47.85
Current. Tapped 48.30 at the intraday low and rallied back on below average volume. Meeting resistance at 49.
MER 01/10 Flat 70.14 -0.25 70.15 80.45 4.6M 6.2M 69.11
Current. Gapped down testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on strong volume surge. Meeting some resistance here.
MOT 01/11 Asc Tri 23.52 -0.51 24.77 28.95 17M 25M 23.55
Buy Not Hit.
MSTR 01/14 Test BO 94.99 -0.64 96.72 111 266K 493K 92.78
Entered today. Solid rebound during morning session but got the fades. Still in the nice lateral move and not impacted much
after hours.
MSTR 11/15 DB hdl 94.99 -0.64 81.22 91.25 266K 612K 94.48
Current.
NDAQ 01/07 Test 50 38.24 -0.77 39.45 48.35 940K 1.6M 37.64
Buy Not Issued. Pullback holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. May continue to test back to 37.82
NIHD 01/12 Test 18 46.51 -1.3 47.21 55.95 842K 2.1M 45.57
Current. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Meeting some resistance at 47
RL 12/28 Test BO 55.3 -0.72 56.95 65.95 636K 1M 54.48
Buy Not Issued. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
RVSN 01/07 Test 18 18.1 0 17.45 20.95 209K 471K 17.58
Current.
SMSC 01/12 DB hdl 31.92 +0.14 33.15 39.75 186K 445K 31.27
Buy Not Hit.
SNDK 01/14 Test BO 71.54 -1.28 73.65 87.95 17M 21M 71.78
Buy Not Hit. Gapped down at the open and rallied back holding just below the 10 day MVA on above average volume. Still in the pattern.
SNDK 12/20 DB hdl 71.54 -1.28 60.69 72.38 17M 20M 72.04
Current.
STJ 01/06 Test 50 53.83 +0.3 52.92 61.45 3.1M 3.1M 52.89
Current. Tapped 54.59 at the intraday high, but gave it back on stronger above average volume. Meeting some resistance at 54
TIE 01/07 Cup hdl 73.25 +2.27 73.89 84.95 1.3M 1.2M 71.44
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up tapping 74.91 at the intraday high, but gave some back on stronger above average volume. Volume not there to enter the play. Need to see a clear and decisive move.
TOMO 01/14 Rv H&S 22.94 +0.44 22.78 27.35 565K 325K 21.25
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open and continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but strong volume. If stock makes a clear and decisive move tomorrow on strong volume will still be a buy.
TSCO 01/09 PreAnn 51.12 -1.49 55.25 63.55 316K 547K 53.55
Buy Not Hit. Pullback below the 50 day MVA on rising, but only average volume. May test back to 50.40.
TWGP 12/10 Test BO 21.15 -0.77 21.25 25.31 286K 347K 21.24
Current.
TWGP 10/27 Test BO 21.15 -0.77 17.95 21.45 286K 226K 21.34
Current.
VAR 01/11 Test 50 53.1 +0.1 53.32 61.35 588K 1.2M 51.25
Current. Still in uptrend on low volume.
VSEA 01/05 Rv H&S 45.75 -1.52 47.29 54.38 979K 1.2M 46.97
Current. Big gap down and rallied back to recover some of the loss on stronger above average volume. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday (46.15), but gave it back. Meeting some resistance at 46.
VTS 01/03 Test BO 42.14 +0.35 38.39 44.48 455K 941K 40.32
Current.
WRES 01/12 Cup hdl 17.72 +0.24 17.73 21.38 319K 676K 16.57
Current. Tapped 18.13 at the intraday high, but gave some of it back on rising, but below average volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
RMD 12/21 Put 38.3 +0.12 38.83 36.45 278K 650K 38.78
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
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