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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: A mix of medical and energy given the tech struggles.
Good Movers: ACI; BOOM; CDIS; CRM; GRP; ISRG; NBR; NOV; SU; UPL
New Pre-Announcement Play:
Play Date: 01/17/2006
CELG (Celgene--$67.89; +1.25; optionable): Drugs. Splits 2:1 on 2-27-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
After Hours: $67.72
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. CELG broke out from a 6 week base in early December, rallying to 72 on the move. It has come back the past week to test, filling the gap higher from 6 sessions back. It has held the 18 day EMA (65.49) on the intraday lows the past two sessions and rebounded. Tuesday CELG rebounded to post a nice gain on continued above average volume. Strong leader with money flow moving higher ahead of price. We anticipate CELG is going to continues its run after this test.
Volume: 2.744M Avg Volume: 2.376M
BUY POINT: $68.55 Volume=3.2M Target=$78.85 Stop=$65.48
POSITION: LQH GN - July $70c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/celg.html
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 01/17/2006
CELL (Brightpoint--$19.74; -0.18; optionable): Wireless telecom. It does it all for telecom companies worldwide, e.g. warehousing and kitting of products, wireless communication accessories, web hosting, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cell.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CELL has formed the current short base the past 6 weeks, using near term support at the 18 day EMA (19.55). Indeed, Tuesday CELL sold off and undercut that level, then rebounded to hold support on stronger, average volume. Positive 2 to 0 accumulation in the pattern (2 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying, setting up the next move. Similar action from CELL in September and October when it set up a base and then broke out for a nice 4 week run higher in November. Money flow is solid as well as CELL sets up for the breakout. Nice doji Tuesday worked to shake out some sellers and set up the move.
Volume: 559.3K Avg Volume: 844.7K
BUY POINT: $20.15 Volume=1.3M Target=$24.22 Stop=$19.48
POSITION: ULN GD - July $20c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cell.html
Play Date: 01/17/2006
CLZR (Canela--$15.91; -0.09; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clzr.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Medical appliances are getting some money spread their way, and with the likely selling in some technology it may get a bit more. CLZR shot higher 6 sessions back on very strong trade, breaking out from a 19 month cup with handle base, surging to 17 on the move. It has faded back the past week on very low, below average volume, coming to rest on the 10 day EMA (15.79) with a nice doji Tuesday. Surging money flow is leading the way higher. Relative strength broke out on the price breakout, a good corroboration of the breakout's strength. Nice test and looking for strong volume as it surges back up.
Volume: 101.53K Avg Volume: 317.471K
BUY POINT: $16.62 Volume=345K Target=$19.95 Stop=$15.64
POSITION: UKZ EC - May $15c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/clzr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Lots of stocks in position for split announcements in January and February. We have some good information on many though some are wild cards, i.e. no split history but hearing word of a possible split announcement. All are good leadership quality stocks that can make us money if they show us the breakout moves.
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ANSS: Forecast 2-16-06 before the open.
AAPL: Forecast 1-18-06 or 2-10-06. Possibly tomorrow but more likely in February.
ACI: Forecast 2-10-06
ATW: Researching to pinpoint date.
CLE: Forecast 1-26-06
CLF: Forecast second week of February.
COF: Forecast 1-19-06 after the close. Not making the move we want just yet.
CTSH: Forecast 1-30-06 or 2-10-06
DATK: Hearing that an announcement is possible in mid-February. Looking to pinpoint the date (originally forecast early January).
DBRN: Researching next date, but looking at early February.
DRI: Forecast third week in March.
EOG: Forecast 2-3-06
FTO: Forecast mid-April. Will pinpoint the date shortly.
GIL: Forecast February 1
GILD: Forecast 1-25-06
JEC: Forecast 2-7-06
LCAV: Forecast 1-24-06
LM: Tentatively forecast 1-24-06
LUFK: Tentatively forecast in March
MRVL: Forecast 2-23-06
NOV: Working to pinpoint a date.
ODP: Forecast 2-23-06
PLCE: Forecast 2-3-06
PPDI: Forecast mid-January.
RJF: Forecast 2-9-06
SLB: Forecast 1-20-06 before the open. Gapped higher. Been a long time but hearing good things about a split announcement.
SNDK: Forecast 1-20-06
TECH: Forecast for 1-31-06 before the open.
UPL: Forecast 2-8-06
WIRE: Forecast third week of January
XTO: Forecast 2-15-06
New Pre-Announcement Plays: Another potential energy play though it has been a long time between splits.
Play Date: 01/17/2006
HAL (Halliburton--$70; +0.45; optionable): Oil and gas services and equipment. Potential to announce a split 1-27-06.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split 6-10-97 at $80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hal.html
After Hours: $70
STATUS: Test breakout. HAL receives a lot of bad press, but it also makes a lot of money and that drives its stock price higher. Last week HAL broke out from a 13 week cup with handle base and rallied to 71.45 on the breakout move. It has slid laterally on lower volume the past two sessions, refusing to give up the breakout gain. It may take a couple more days of moving laterally and letting the 10 day EMA (67.80) rise to meet it, but with the tech earnings issues money may start rotating into energy faster than that. Thus we want to be ready when it makes its move. Excellent 6 to 1 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a lot of buying as HAL consolidated for the breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 5.339M Avg Volume: 6.953M
BUY POINT: $71.55 Volume=8M Target=$82.45 Stop=$68.65
POSITION: HAL GN - July $70c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hal.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays ready to move: Still looking at energy
Play Date: 01/12/2006
FTO (Frontier Oil--$43.13; +1.27; optionable): Oil and gas refining and marketing. Looking for a mid-April announcement as we hear FTO liked the response after its last split.
BACKGROUND: Announced its only 2:1 split on 4-15-05 (tax day) at $39.40.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fto.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped higher and posted a decent gain, but volume did not follow. It was higher but still well below average, a chronic problem for FTO this entire base. Needs to show more volume. To recap: FTO formed a prolonged 6 week handle to its 14 week base, moving laterally along the 10 day EMA (41.08). Nice pattern that has formed just below and all-time high. A strong market leader that needed this rest. The leader in its sector with strong fundamentals and a very strong pattern. Volume has yet to swell on this move, and typically trade will jump just before a stock makes its breakout.
Volume: 1.028M Avg Volume: 1.293M
BUY POINT: New: $43.38 (orig. $42.12) Volume=2M Target=$50 Stop=$40.21
POSITION: FTO GH - July $40c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fto.html
Play Date: 01/14/2006
MRVL (Marvell Technology--$62.96; -1.49; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits. Forecast 2-23-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 2-26-04 at $42.90.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvl.html
After Hours: $61.75
STATUS: Breakout test. Tested the 10 day EMA (62.45) on the close but then was down near the 18 day EMA (60.97) after hours. May have a rough session Wednesday, but this one could test lower and rebound; strong market leader. To recap: A clear market leader with tremendous momentum and continuing buying. It broke out from a 12 week base in late November at $50. It is making the second test of that breakout move, reaching down to the 10 day EMA Friday on the intraday low and rebounding for a modest gain. After the big run higher it needed this breather. It is going to do more than just snug up to the 10 day EMA.
Volume: 3.537M Avg Volume: 4.084M
BUY POINT: New: 62.75 (orig. $65.11) Volume=6.1M Target=$74.95 Stop=$62.22
POSITION: UVM EM - May $65c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mrvl.html
Play Date: 01/03/2006
XTO (XTO Energy--$46.7; +1.1; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Forecast to announce 2-15-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4:3 split 2-16-05 at $39.10. Before that a 5:4 split on 2-17-04 at 28.50. Before that a 4:3 split on 2-18-03 at 24.20. You get the picture.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped higher Tuesday but volume did not follow, coming in well below average. Nice 14 week base sporting 5 to 3 accumulation with relative strength holding tight. Looks ready but needs to show volume. With the tech issues it may very well get it.
Volume: 2.479M Avg Volume: 4.194M
BUY POINT: $46.08 Volume=5.2M Target=$52.99 Stop=$44.62
POSITION: XTO EI - May $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/11/2006
JCOM (J2 Global Communications--$47.26; +0.14; optionable): Outsourced & value-added messaging and communications services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcom.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice action, holding the 10 day EMA (46.74) and rebounding Tuesday on a slight bump in volume. Working very well to set up the br3eak higher, ignoring the market. We will see if it can keep that up Wednesday. It was lower after hours but holding in well. To recap: JCOM is working sideways just below resistance at 48, forming the handle to a short but nicely formed 6 week base. The current pattern is the tail end of a larger, 27 month base; a breakout takes it to a new all-time high and puts it in great position to rally when that move occurs. A top rated stock from a technical and fundamental position. Want to see strong volume pour in as JCOM makes its breakout move.
Volume: 243.458K Avg Volume: 505.377K
BUY POINT: $48.28Volume=769K Target=$55.95 Stop=$46.32
POSITION: JQF FJ - June $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jcom.html
Play Date: 01/12/2006
QSII (Quality Systems--$82.40; +1.90; optionable): Healthcare information software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qsii.html
After Hours: $82.40
STATUS: Cup. Volume was up Tuesday though still below average as QSII started higher off of the 10 day EMA (79.76) test. Nice rest and looks ready to move. Healthcare is likey to get more play with tech struggling. To recap: A short but nice 7 week base has formed after a strong run as QSII sets up for a breakout to its next all-time high. It used the 50 day EMA (77.72) as the support for the pattern, an indication that the big money is hanging with it even as it rests. Positive accumulation in this pattern. The best in its sector with strong fundamentals to go with the pattern.
Volume: 249.539K Avg Volume: 272.311K
BUY POINT: New: $82.88 (orig. $81.25) Volume=414K Target=$93.45 Stop=$78.89
POSITION: QCR FP - June $80c (55 delta) &/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qsii.html
Play Date: 01/07/2006
TIE (Titanium Metals--$73.25; +2.27; optionable): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tie.html
After Hours: $73.26
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped higher Tuesday on stronger, above average volume, the best in a month. It showed a doji on the move after rallying to 74.91 on the high as it had to deal with a soft market. Looking for it to continue the move Wednesday on more solid volume.
Volume: 1.269M Avg Volume: 833.384K
BUY POINT: $73.89 Volume=1.2M Target=$84.95 Stop=$71.44
POSITION: TIE CO - Mar. $75c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tie.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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