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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ENER; CRM; RVSN; VAR; VSEA
Strong plays: They all look super and are ready to go.
1) ATMI: Solid volume as ignores selling and starts the breakout.
2) ULTI: Excellent breakout test with volume rising.
3) BRCM: Gapped lower, tested the 10 day EMA, and then rebounded on volume.
4) MRVL: Another leader that gapped lower and rebounded on strong volume.
5) CLZR: Excellent breakout test.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 01/18/2006
ANGO (Angiodynamics--$28.43; -0.02; no options): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ango.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ANGO blasted higher in early 2006, surging out of a 24 week cup with handle base. Strong 6 to 3 accumulation shows plenty of buying in the pattern. Relative strength broke out as well, a good corroboration of the price move. A new issue in mid-2004, ANGO is sporting strong fundamentals, some of the best in the market. A good combo with its strong pattern. Nice low volume doji Wednesday that tapped at the 10 day EMA (27.54) on the low and then bounced. The test looks to have set its bottom and looks ready to continue higher to a new all-time high.
Volume: 79.726K Avg Volume: 136.806K
BUY POINT: $28.85 Volume=205K Target=$34.65 Stop=$27.21
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ango.html
Play Date: 01/18/2006
ATMI (ATMI, Inc.--$32.35; +0.64; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atmi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Held up very well in the Wednesday turmoil, moving laterally and then rallying to post a gain on rising, above average volume. This looks to be the start of the breakout from its 25 week base that sports excellent 7 to 3 accumulation. Strong pattern, solid fundamentals, impervious to the wilder market action. Ready to move in as ATMI continues higher.
Volume: 558.513K Avg Volume: 574.925K
BUY POINT: $32.65 Volume=862K Target=$39 Stop=$30.89
POSITION: ASQ FF - June $30c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/atmi.html
Play Date: 01/18/2006
ULTI (Ultimate Software--$20.35; -0.14; optionable): Payroll and workforce management solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ulti.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ULTI is testing the 10 day EMA (20.25), its second test of this support after the mid-December breakout from a 14 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (18.82) as support. Strong 5 to 2 accumulation shows plenty of buyers, setting up the breakout and run higher. Nice orderly test of the 10 day, showing a pair of dojis the past two sessions. Strong money flow is leading higher, and after this test ULTI is ready to continue its run.
Volume: 135.875K Avg Volume: 135.338K
BUY POINT: $20.65 Volume=203K Target=$23.89 Stop=$19.65
POSITION: JUL ED - May $20c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ulti.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 01/18/2006
BRCM (Broadcom--$57.50; +0.54; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
After Hours: $57.30
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped down to the 10 day EMA (55.05), held then powered higher for a gain on stronger, above average volume. This follows a strong breakout and rally to start the year, BRCM's first test of that breakout from its 12 week base. Strong, strong move to this point, but we don't see any weakness in the stock, particularly with its action in the Wednesday turmoil. Ready to move in with new positions as BRCM continues higher after this test.
Volume: 12.196M Avg Volume: 8.643M
BUY POINT: $57.88 Volume=10M Target=$66.57 Stop=$54.98
POSITION: RCQ EB - May $57.50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brcm.html
Play Date: 01/14/2006
MRVL (Marvell Technology--$63.95; +0.99; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits. Forecast 2-23-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 2-26-04 at $42.90.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvl.html
After Hours: $63.42
STATUS: Breakout test. MRVL gapped down to the 18 day EMA (61.28) on the Wednesday open then staged a higher volume rebound to post a gain. Strength on strength. Ready to move into additional positions as MRVL continues higher. To recap: A clear market leader with tremendous momentum and continuing buying. It broke out from a 12 week base in late November at $50. It is making the second test of that breakout move, reaching down to the 10 day EMA Friday and the 18 day EMA Wednesday, rebounding on solid trade. Looks ready to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 5.947M Avg Volume: 4.106M
BUY POINT: $64.38 Volume=6.1M Target=$74.95 Stop=$62.22
POSITION: UVM EM - May $65c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mrvl.html
Play Date: 01/14/2006
SNDK (Sandisk--$70.64; -0.89; optionable): Semiconductor flash memory, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sndk.html
After Hours: $70.36
STATUS: Breakout test. SNDK continues to test its strong early 2006 breakout, coming back and holding the 18 day EMA (68.87) on the Tuesday and Wednesday lows. That keeps it holding the breakout even in all of this selling. Looking for SNDK to turn back up here and give us another entry point. To recap: Another leader in the recent surge, and indeed, in December as well, that is taking a breather after a strong run. SNDK topped out just over 77 last week and then received a downgrade last Friday and again on Tuesday; 'valuation' calls that strong, leading stocks often get. Volume has faded on the selling this week, showing us no real sellers as it tests. Looking for a break back up through the 10 day EMA (71.79) to enter new positions.
Volume: 11.674M Avg Volume: 13.903M
BUY POINT: $72.25 Volume=21M Target=$87.95 Stop=$6885
POSITION: SWF DO - Apr. $75c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sndk.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 01/14/2006
ALNY (Alnylam Pharmaceuticals--$14.45; +0.1; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alny.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working laterally over the 10 day EMA (14.02), gapping lower Wednesday but recovering to close basically flat. Nice base that continues setting up for a breakout. Just have to be patient and let it make the move. To recap: Very nice 4.5 month base that used the 50 day EMA (12.88) more or less on the lows as support. This is ALNY's third base since coming to market in May 2004, setting it up for another good run higher. Excellent 6 to 1 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a lot of buying, and that is preparing ALNY to move higher once more. Making a higher low here in the handle, and that is setting it up for the breakout. Very strong technical position and solid fundamentals to match. Want to see volume surge as it makes the breakout move.
Volume: 159.438K Avg Volume: 141.805K
BUY POINT: $14.78 Volume=212K Target=$17.78 Stop=$13.75
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/alny.html
Play Date: 01/14/2006
CBST (Cubist Pharmaceuticals--$22.88; +0.22; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbst.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume moved up toward average Wednesday as CBST moved off the 18 day EMA (22.27). Good test of the near term support looks to have set up the rebound. Want to see more trade as it continues higher through the buy point. To recap: CBST has been easing back, tapping near support at the 18 day EMA on the lows, forming a handle to a short 7 week base that formed after a strong breakout in early July that led to a 10 point run. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base shows nice buying even as it consolidates and sets up the next move. Used the 50 day EMA (21.68) as it tested back in December and early January, showing that the big money is supporting it. Nice test back to end the week, setting it up for the breakout. Solid fundamentals to go with its technical position.
Volume: 522.198K Avg Volume: 578.373K
BUY POINT: $23.38 Volume=886K Target=$28 Stop=$22.12
POSITION: UTU EX - May $22.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cbst.html
Play Date: 01/17/2006
CLZR (Canela--$15.75; -0.16; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clzr.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Another tight doji right at the 10 day EMA (15.78) as CLZR ignored the selling and continued its low volume breakout test. It is ready to make the move. To recap: CLZR shot higher a week back on very strong trade, breaking out from a 19 month cup with handle base, surging to 17 on the move. It has faded back the past week on very low, below average volume, coming to rest on the 10 day EMA, showing nice doji's at that level. Surging money flow is leading the way higher. Relative strength broke out on the price breakout, a good corroboration of the breakout's strength. Nice test and looking for strong volume as it surges back up.
Volume: 145.281K Avg Volume: 317.471K
BUY POINT: $16.38 Volume=345K Target=$19.95 Stop=$15.55
POSITION: UKZ EC - May $15c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/clzr.html
Play Date: 01/17/2006
HAL (Halliburton--$69.4; -0.6; optionable): Oil and gas services and equipment.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hal.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice doji with tail Wednesday as HAL reached down to the 10 day EMA (68.20) on the intraday low and rebounded to close flat. Volume edged higher toward average as it rebounded from the early downdraft; some buyers moving back in. Still solid in the test and this shakeout helps set the bottom for the continued break higher. To recap: Last week HAL broke out from a 13 week cup with handle base and rallied to 71.45 on the breakout move. It has slid laterally on lower volume the past two sessions, refusing to give up the breakout gain. It may take a couple more days of moving laterally and letting the 10 day EMA rise to meet it; Wednesday it reached for it on its own. Excellent 6 to 1 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a lot of buying as HAL consolidated for the breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 5.666M Avg Volume: 6.953M
BUY POINT: $71.55 Volume=8M Target=$82.45 Stop=$68.65
POSITION: HAL GN - July $70c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hal.html
Play Date: 01/14/2006
TOMO (Tom Online--$22.25; -0.69; optionable): Telecom wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tomo.html
After Hours: $22.23
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Gapped lower Wednesday after the Tuesday gap higher. Tested near the 18 day EMA (21.12) on the low and rebounded to recoup most of the losses. Nice shakeout and recovery. Looking for a continued volume break higher for the entry into the play. To recap: TOMO shot higher Friday on strong volume, breaking out of its 8 week base and to a new all-time high. TOMO was a new issue in March 2004, and it has a lot of buying and no overhead supply. Another market leader with a very strong pattern and very strong fundamentals to back it. Big surge and we are looking to start a position on a continued move and then on the first test of the breakout and run higher. Strong money flow and looking for a relative strength breakout this week as TOMO continues its break higher.
Volume: 501.032K Avg Volume: 319.606K
BUY POINT: $22.78 Volume=325K Target=$27.35 Stop=$21.25
POSITION: QWX FX - June $22.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tomo.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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