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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Strong plays: They all look super and are ready to go.
1) CYMI: Nice breakout test in the Friday sell off.
2) NFX: Ready for the breakout.
3) RCCC: Quietly going about its business as the market sold.
4) ALNY: Starting higher as the market sells.
5) CBST: Nice action in a weaker market Friday.
6) ULTI: Ready for the move.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 01/21/2006
CRUS (Cirrus Logic--$8.11; -0.23; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crus.html
After Hours: $8.16
Earnings: 1-25-06 after the close
STATUS: Breakout test. CRUS broke higher last week on some strong volume then gave back some of the move on Friday as technology and chips sold back with the market. Still holding the breakout from its 21 week base sporting strong 8 to 4 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume), showing plenty of buying during the base. Looking for CRUS to hold the breakout, maybe testing the 10 day EMA (7.91) on the lows before turning back up and following the strong money flow.
Volume: 1.298M Avg Volume: 796.373K
BUY POINT: $8.39 Volume=1.2M Target=$10.49 Stop=$7.88
POSITION: CUQ FU - June $7.50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crus.html
Play Date: 01/21/2006
CYMI (Cymer--$41.25; -1.81; optionable): Semiconductor equipment (lasers)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cymi.html
After Hours: $41.25
Earnings: 1-31-06 after the close
STATUS: Breakout test. CYMI was jumping higher Thursday with the rest of the semiconductors, breaking out of a 6 week cup with handle that formed immediately after the November breakout from a 14 week base. Nice base on base action to weed out the sellers and set up the breakout. Strong breakout move that is being tested on lighter volume Friday as the market sold off. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the base shows plenty of buying, setting up the breakout and run higher as CYMI follows strong money flow. Relative strength broke out on the move, a good indication of CYMI's strength. It is likely to come back a bit more and test the breakout point at 40, but after expiration pressure is off it may turn right back up from here and we want to be ready.
Volume: 1.035M Avg Volume: 665.862K
BUY POINT: From the Friday close: $41.57. On a test of 40 & rebound: $40.65 Volume=1M Target=$47.95 Stop=$38.77
POSITION: CQG EH - May $40c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cymi.html
Play Date: 01/21/2006
NFX (Newfield Exploration--$51.68; -0.06; optionable): Oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nfx.html
Earnings: Early February
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume surged Friday as NFX streaked higher to 54.50. It could not hold the move, however, falling back to flat by the close. That kept it in its 17 week base, still ready for the breakout to a new all-time high. Excellent 6 to 2 accumulation in the base shows plenty of buying to send NFX to that new high. May need to reload a bit after that run higher and reversal, but strong stock in a strong pattern, and looking for it to show us another breakout move this week.
Volume: 2.684M Avg Volume: 1.234M
BUY POINT: $52.65 Volume=1.9M Target=$60.95 Stop=$50.78
POSITION: NFX FJ - June $50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nfx.html
Play Date: 01/21/2006
RCCC (Rural Cellular--$17.01; -0.24; no options): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rccc.html
Earnings: Early February
STATUS: Cup w/handle. RCCC is working laterally in a tight range, holding the solid January move higher as the 10 day EMA (16.83) rises to meet it. The move completed its 12 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (16.32) as support; that shows its supporters stepping in at that level to bolster positions. After a four year slumber, RCCC has awakened. Strong 5 to 2 accumulation in the base shows plenty of buying. Like the way RCCC ignored the market selling, going about its own business Friday. Strong fundamentals to go with the pattern.
Volume: 68.313K Avg Volume: 68.5K
BUY POINT: $17.68 Volume=140K Target=$21.75 Stop=$16.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rccc.html
Play Date: 01/21/2006
THE (Todco--$45.07; +0.59; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/the.html
After Hours: $45.75
Earnings: Early February
STATUS: Cup. Volume has ramped higher the past week and was strong Friday as THE moved higher, not lower. Energy was in the lead and THE is close to a breakout move from its 11 week base. Positive accumulation has set up the break higher. Looking for volume to continue this week as THE gives us a breakaway move.
Volume: 2.308M Avg Volume: 1.521M
BUY POINT: $45.92 Volume=2.3M Target=$54.95 Stop=$43.11
POSITION: THE FI - June $45c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/the.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 01/14/2006
ALNY (Alnylam Pharmaceuticals--$14.99; +0.18; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alny.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Friday ALNY gapped higher but could not give any breakaway move given the Friday selling overall. Good volume, good pattern, and looking for ALNY to continue higher for us this week. To recap: Very nice 4.5 month base that used the 50 day EMA (13.04) more or less on the lows as support. This is ALNY's third base since coming to market in May 2004, setting it up for another good run higher. Excellent 6 to 1 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a lot of buying, and that is preparing ALNY to move higher once more. Making a higher low here in the handle, and that is setting it up for the breakout. Very strong technical position and solid fundamentals to match. Want to see volume surge as it makes the breakout move.
Volume: 232.35K Avg Volume: 145.967K
BUY POINT: New: $15.12 (orig. $14.78) Volume=212K Target=$17.78 Stop=$13.75
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/alny.html
Play Date: 01/18/2006
ANGO (Angiodynamics--$27.14; -1.01; no options): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ango.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ANGO finished the week on a down note with the rest of the market, but it held the breakout, tapping the 18 day EMA (26.82) on the low and rebounding modestly. That still keeps ANGO in a nice breakout test and ready to rebound this week. To recap: ANGO blasted higher in early 2006, surging out of a 24 week cup with handle base. Strong 6 to 3 accumulation shows plenty of buying in the pattern. Relative strength broke out as well, a good corroboration of the price move. A new issue in mid-2004, ANGO is sporting strong fundamentals, some of the best in the market. A good combo with its strong pattern. Looking for volume to move back above average as ANGO rebounds off this test for a buy point as it heads back for a new all-time high.
Volume: 117.516K Avg Volume: 133.671K
BUY POINT: New: $27.74 (orig. $28.85) Volume=205K Target=$34.65 Stop=$27.21
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ango.html
Play Date: 01/14/2006
CBST (Cubist Pharmaceuticals--$22.99; -0.42; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbst.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Good move Thursday and it gave it back Friday, but no harm done as CBST tapped the 10 day EMA (22.72) on the low and rebounded slightly. Very solid pattern that is still ready to go. To recap: CBST has been easing back, tapping near support at the 18 day EMA on the lows, forming a handle to a short 7 week base that formed after a strong breakout in early July that led to a 10 point run. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base shows nice buying even as it consolidates and sets up the next move. Used the 50 day EMA (21.79) as it tested back in December and early January, showing that the big money is supporting it. Nice test back to end the week, setting it up for the breakout. Solid fundamentals to go with its technical position.
Volume: 647.25K Avg Volume: 573.181K
BUY POINT: $23.38 Volume=886K Target=$28 Stop=$22.12
POSITION: UTU EX - May $22.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cbst.html
Play Date: 01/11/2006
FSL (Freescale Semiconductor--$26.29; -0.56; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fsl.html
After Hours: $26.27
STATUS: Breakout test. FSL reported strong earnings after the close Thursday and gapped higher. Friday was not the day for chips, however, and it gave it all back and more. It is still holding the 10 week lateral range, however, and with the strong earnings and overall solid pattern we anticipate FSL will ride through this and show us an upside move this week once more.
Volume: 5.428M Avg Volume: 1.994M
BUY POINT: $27.48 Volume=2.8M Target=$32.95 Stop=$26.31
POSITION: FSL FE - June $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fsl.html
Play Date: 01/19/2006
ORBK (Orbotech--$25; -0.85; optionable): Production support solutions for electronics industry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orbk.html
Earnings: 2-13-06
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Gapped lower Friday on a downgrade, but it did not kill the pattern. ORBK held the 18 day EMA (24.92), showing less volume on the selling than the strong Thursday volume on an upside move. Looking for ORBK to recover this week and deliver the breakout. To recap: Volume surged last week as ORBK massed at the breakout point of its 23 week base. Thursday it started the breakout attempt, rallying on the best volume in three months. Strong 7 to 4 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying and sets ORBK up for the breakout and run higher. Money flow is surging out ahead of price, and ORBK is ready to follow.
Volume: 444.797K Avg Volume: 191.07K
BUY POINT: $26.35 Volume=250K Target=$30.95 Stop=$24.87
POSITION: OKQ GE - July $25c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/orbk.html
Play Date: 01/18/2006
ULTI (Ultimate Software--$20.72; +0.09; optionable): Payroll and workforce management solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ulti.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Broke higher Friday, running to 21.29, but could not hold the move, fading back to flat as volume moved to average. It was ready, but the market was not conducive. Looking for it to make the move this week. To recap: ULTI tested the 10 day EMA (20.39) last week, its second test of this support after the mid-December breakout from a 14 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (18.97) as support. Strong 5 to 2 accumulation shows plenty of buyers, setting up the breakout and run higher. Nice orderly test of the 10 day, showing a pair of dojis the past two sessions. Strong money flow is leading higher, and after this test ULTI is ready to continue its run.
Volume: 119.336K Avg Volume: 135.021K
BUY POINT: New: $20.92 (orig. $20.65) Volume=203K Target=$23.89 Stop=$19.65
POSITION: JUL ED - May $20c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ulti.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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