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Begin part 2 of 2
Full report issues Wednesday.
THE PLAYS
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 01/24/2006
CKCM (Click Commerce--$27.07; +2.69; optionable): On-demand supply chain management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ckcm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume jumped Tuesday as CKCM started the breakout from a 9 week base that formed on the heels of a 14 week pattern, a nice base on base pattern that has shaken out the sellers and set up the breakout. Positive accumulation in the base that formed using the 200 day SMA (20.43) on the lows as support. Positive accumulation shows net buying, setting up the breakout. Looking for a 5 year high on this breakout move. The leader in its group and sporting strong technicals and strong fundamentals.
Volume: 691.121K Avg Volume: 486.567K
BUY POINT: $27.32 Volume=600K Target=$32.95 Stop=$25.89
POSITION: QCP FE - June $25c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ckcm.html
Play Date: 01/24/2006
NOVL (Novell--$9.10; +0.19; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/novl.html
After Hours: $9.10
STATUS: Flat base. Volume jumped as NOVL started the breakout move from its 6 week flat base that formed above the 18 day EMA (8.88) after a strong breakout in late August and run higher. This is its first real base since the breakout, and we like the low volume lateral move, the refusal to give up the gains, the positive accumulation and strong money flow leading price higher. Ready to move in as it continues the breakout.
Volume: 12.06M Avg Volume: 5.779M
BUY POINT: $9.22 Volume=6M Target=$11.12 Stop=$8.78
POSITION: NKQ EU - May $7.50c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/novl.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
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http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABAX 01/23 Cup hdl 18.6 +0.54 18.55 22.25 300K 303K 17.68
Entered today. Solid breakout on strong trade, taking ABAX out of
its 10 week base.
ACN 12/14 Test 18 30.59 -0.14 29.22 33.95 3.2M 2.7M 30.48
Tested the 18 day MA on the low adn rebounded for a
modest loss. Volume jumped above average. Volatile
here & needs to show us the move off the 18 day test
soon though it is still in its uptrend.
ALNY 01/14 Cup hdl 13.62 -1.04 14.78 17.78 247K 212K 13.75
Buy Not Issued. Heading the wrong way on volume. That broke up the
pattern so dropping for now.
AMTD 01/04 Test BO 26.1 +0.13 25.11 29.45 8.4M 5M 25.29
Current. Moving higher but in fits and sputters. Volume has
picked up the past 3 sessions, however, & that is a
positive indication that AMTD may pick up the pace.
ANGO 01/18 Test BO 28.33 +1.31 27.69 33.55 98K 205K 25.75
Buy Not Issued. Nice bounce but volume did not come with it yet. If
it can show us average trade or so it is a nice buy.
ATMI 01/18 Cup hdl 32.21 +0.69 32.65 39 411K 862K 30.89
Buy Not Issued. Recovering from the test of the 10 day EMA, rising
on rising volume. If we get a good volume shot it will
be a buy on the move.
BCRX 01/04 Test BO 20.07 -0.14 19.58 23.87 1.1M 4.5M 19.78
Current. Another doji but managed to hold the 10 day EMA on
the close once again as it makes its test and fills
the gap from that big breakout last week.
BNT 01/23 Cup hdl 19.59 +0.42 19.69 23.65 691K 579K 18.35
Buy Not Issued. Good volume and was moving, but not quite ready. Great
stock and still ready to move.
BOOM 12/21 FlyPlat 34.85 +0.33 32.23 38.62 406K 2.1M 33.39
Current. Still working laterally on minute volume. Indeed, volume
has been tepid for 7 weeks. Cannot complain if it keeys
moving up the 10 day EMA (34.17) which is what it is doing.
BOOM 11/30 Test 50 34.85 +0.33 24.75 29.75 406K 2.1M 33.39
BRCM 01/18 Test BO 57.72 +0.84 59.28 68.57 8.4M 10M 55.78
Current.
BRCM 01/05 Cup hdl 57.72 +0.84 50.14 59.95 8.4M 10M 55.78
Current. Sparked upside some but closed well off its high on
slightly above avg volume. BRCM has held up well on
the selling & tried to lead Tues but was still digesting
its recent move. Solid & will be ready to run soon.
CMED 01/07 Cup hdl 42.24 +1 39.42 46.95 708K 1.2M 39.77
Current. Continues working higher up the 10 day EMA (39.90).
Volatile as all get out, but it is moving higher and
holding the near term support at the 10 day as it does.
CRM 01/10 Test BO 39.97 +0.07 38.96 45.95 1M 2.4M 39.65
Current. Nice test of the 10 day EMA (39.11) continues on nice
low volume. Setting up the next move as it continues
its run up the 10 day MA.
CRUS 01/21 Test BO 8.13 +0.14 8.39 10.49 837K 1.2M 7.88
Buy Not Hit. Continues its very nice test of the break higher last
week, holding the 10 day EMA (7.96). Looks excellent
and ready to go.
CTXS 01/04 Test BO 31.2 -0.16 30.05 35.95 2.2M 2.2M 30.95
Current. Has filled most of the gap, tapping the 10 day EMA
(30.83) Tuesday and then rebounding on rising volume
to cut some losses. Nice low volume test and ready
to resume the move.
CYMI 01/21 Test BO 42.57 +1.27 41.35 47.95 755K 1M 40.42
Current. Nice continuation move higher after the Monday doji
that tapped the 10 day EMA. Looks ready to makes some
serious upside for us.
DTAS 01/23 Test 50 13.93 +0.36 13.91 16.77 1M 1.2M 13.32
Entered today. Continuing the solid move off of the 50 day EMA (12.84)
on more above average volume.
ENER 01/03 Cup hdl 57.08 +2.92 43.65 50.65 2.1M 1.8M 55.05
Current. Nice volume as ENER continued its strong move up the
10 day EMA (52.17). Strong move underway with plenty
of volume to support it.
EXPE 01/09 Test 50 25.49 -0.17 25.19 29.98 2.4M 2.5M 25.02
Current. Holding steady over the 18 day EMA (25.17) as volume
jumped up to average. Want to see EXPE give us a break
higher here without wasting too much more time.
FSL 01/11 Test 50 26.61 +0.08 27.48 32.95 1.4M 2.8M 26.31
Buy Not Hit. Still set to make the move, holding above the 10 day
EMA (26.50) on lower, below avg volume. Nice pattern
still ready to breakout.
GPRO 01/04 Asc Tri 49.83 +0.34 51.19 59.58 184K 699K 50.11
Exited. Took the money off the talbe as GPRO could not retake
the 18 day EMA after breaking below that level Monday.
GRP 01/03 Test BO 49.57 -1.18 45.51 52.95 2.4M 1.7M 48.65
Current. Gave back some ground on stronger volume, but still
holding easily in its uptrend and above the 10 day
EMA (49.01).
GS 01/09 Dbl btm 133 +0.13 131.72 140.25 3.8M 4.2M 131.45
Current. Still working laterally over the 10 day EMA (132.05)
on lower but above avg volume. Setting up a handle
here. Not rallying w/most financials. Needs to show
us a move here.
HAL 01/17 PreAnn 75.95 -1.06 71.93 82.89 10M 8M 75.15
Current. After a torrid run HAL took a pause on lower volume.
No issues here, just a breather after a strong breakout
move.
HOLX 12/19 DB hdl 48.24 +5.22 39.33 45.85 3M 1.2M 46.45
Target Hit.
HP 01/05 Test BO 72.77 -0.44 65.85 75.35 484K 725K 70.69
Current. Still working higher above the 10 day EMA (70.88) as
HP continues its uptrend after the breakout earlier
this month.
KWK 01/19 Cup hdl 45.25 -1.21 46.88 55 702K 1.6M 44.05
Current. Fading back to test the 10 day EMA (44.85) on much
lower, below avg volume. Still very solid.
LCAV 12/15 PreAnn 53.25 +1.64 50.28 61.32 377K 1M 50.89
Current. Nice break higher last week, a test of the 10 day EMA
(50.86), & now resuming the move.
MER 01/10 Flat 72.66 +0.56 70.15 80.45 8.2M 6.2M 70.88
Current. Surging volume as MER makes a nice resumption of its
rally up the 10 day EMA (70.99).
MSTR 01/14 Test BO 91.59 -0.36 96.72 111 341K 493K 92.78
Current. Nice hammer doji at the 18 day MA (90.87). Looks like
a very good test; Mondays test lower filled the gap.
Now it looks ready again.
MSTR 11/15 DB hdl 91.59 -0.36 81.22 91.25 341K 612K 92.78
Current.
NFX 01/21 DB hdl 51.7 -0.33 52.65 60.95 703K 1.9M 50.78
Buy Not Hit.
NIHD 01/12 Test 18 49.49 +1.47 47.21 55.95 860K 2.1M 47.45
Current. Nice price gain Tuesday though volume did not move
higher with the stock. Just letting it trend higher
above the 10 day EMA (47.70).
ORBK 01/19 Rv H&S 24.99 -0.09 26.35 30.95 106K 250K 24.87
Buy Not Hit. Still looking for a bounce off the 18 day EMA as volume
subsides and the pattern still holds.
RCCC 01/21 Cup hdl 16.95 +0.06 17.68 21.75 32K 140K 16.44
Buy Not Hit. Still an excellent lateral move at the 10 day EMA,
setting up a strong breakout to come from this sweet
little base.
RVSN 01/07 Test 18 18.16 -0.07 17.45 20.95 329K 471K 17.77
Current. Tightening up very nicely along the 10 day EMA (18.11)
on low volume. Looking for a big break higher from
RVSN from this lateral consolidation.
SNDK 01/14 Test BO 74.47 +1.88 73.72 89.45 15M 21M 71.55
Current.
SNDK 12/20 DB hdl 74.47 +1.88 60.69 72.38 15M 20M 71.55
Current. Gapped higher and rallied though it gave back about
1/2 of the gain. Good recovery by this strong market
leader.
STJ 01/06 Test 50 53.3 +0.3 52.92 61.45 2.6M 3.1M 52.89
Current. Nice hammer doji on strong volume that tapped the 18
day EMA on the low (52.75) and recovered. Setting up
for the next move.
THE 01/21 Cup 46.18 -0.69 46.06 54.95 2.3M 2.3M 43.94
Current. Took a pause after the strong Monday move higher. Still
a solid pattern and ready for more.
TOMO 01/14 Rv H&S 21.44 +0.15 22.32 27.35 221K 325K 21.11
Buy Not Issued. Holding the 18 day EMA but a bit too volatile for us.
If it can show us a strong volume break higher we will
let you know. Goign to drop for now.
ULTI 01/18 Test BO 21.16 +0.5 20.65 23.89 77K 203K 19.65
Buy Not Issued. Just not showing the volume you want to see that indicates
the big money is buying into the move. Had to let it
go for now.
VAR 01/11 Test 50 54.07 +1.71 53.32 61.35 1.6M 1.2M 52
Current. Strong volume as VAR jumped off the 18 day EMA (52.24)
test. After a wild ride Friday and Monday, looks ready
to resume the breakout run.
VSEA 01/05 Rv H&S 50 +2.01 47.29 54.38 921K 1.2M 47.88
Current. Sweet recovery off the 10 day EMA test, rebounding
on strong volume to post a strong price gain.
VTS 01/03 Test BO 44.31 -0.22 38.39 44.48 451K 941K 42.25
Current. Slowing the move the past few sessions, but still trending
higher following the nice early January breakout move.
No worries thus far & just letting it move higher for us.
WRES 01/12 Cup hdl 17.67 +0.13 17.73 21.38 344K 676K 16.88
Current. Big surge upside again to 18.35 but could not hold
the move once again. Still showing strong volume on
the upside, so looking for WRES to show us another
breakout move soon.
ZIGO 01/23 Dbl btm 16.76 -0.04 17.12 20.68 158K 200K 16.21
Buy Not Hit. Nice doji at the 10 day EMA on rising, above average
volume. Looks just about ready to make the breakout move.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
PCP 01/23 Put 50.05 +0.55 49.32 47.75 820K 900K 50.22
Buy Not Hit. Working laterally below the 50 day EMA on lower volume.
Did not do much on a market rally so watching for the
rollover still.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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