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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
We apologize for the tardy delivery of part 3. We experienced some power issues in our area this evening.
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 01/24/2006
JOYG (Joy Global--$47.32; +2.68; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/joyg.html
After Hours: $47.40
STATUS: Breakout test. JOYG broke out from a 15 week base in the second half of December and is making the second test of the breakout, coming back to the 18 day EMA (44.37) the past week. It has worked laterally below 47.50 on low volume. Trade jumped Tuesday as JOYG made a solid move. Now it just needs to show us the breakout over the recent range on continued strong volume, and then we know the move is back on in the breakout run.
Volume: 2.201M Avg Volume: 1.326M
BUY POINT: $47.65 Volume=1.5M Target=$54.95 Stop=$45.21
POSITION: JQY GJ - July $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/joyg.html
Play Date: 01/24/2006
PSYS (Psychiatric Solutions--$32.69; +0.05; optionable): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psys.html
STATUS: Breakout test. PSYS broke out from a 7 week base in early January, surging on strong volume. It is making its second test of that move, easing back the past three sessions on much lower volume but holding onto its gains. It does not want to give the move up, a good sign. Strong money flow is leading higher and a good relative strength breakout shows the move has some guts. May vcome back a bit more to test the 10 day EMA (31.98), but we want to be ready to move in from here if PSYS and the market get a wild hair and decide to streak higher.
Volume: 429.563K Avg Volume: 649.579K
BUY POINT: From the close: $33.22. Test 32: 32.48 on the rebound Volume=800K Target=$38.95 Stop=$31.77
POSITION: BYU FZ - June $32.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psys.html
Play Date: 01/24/2006
TRID (Trident Microsystems--$22.45; +0.98; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trid.html
After Hours: $22.24
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. This is TRID's second test after its early December breakout from a 16 week base. It dropped to the 50 day EMA (19.57) last Wednesday but recovered the same session; a good shakeout to get rid of the sellers, then buyers pushed it back up. It worked laterally on low volume over the 18 day EMA (21.20) and then started higher Tuesday on a strong shot of volume. Strong money flow. Relative strength is already breaking out ahead of price, a bullish indication. The leader in its group, TRID looks ready for a new high.
Volume: 3.508M Avg Volume: 2.067M
BUY POINT: $22.88 Volume=2.2M Target=$27 Stop=$21.54
POSITION: HVU GX - July $22.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trid.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Lots of stocks in position for split announcements in January and February. We have some good information on many though some are wild cards, i.e. no split history but hearing word of a possible split announcement. All are good leadership quality stocks that can make us money if they show us the breakout moves.
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AAPL: Forecast 2-10-06
ACI: Forecast 2-10-06
AGN: Could announce anytime after 1-24-05 when it completes its tender offer.
ATW: Potential announcement 1-30-06 after the close
CLE: Forecast 1-26-06
CLF: Forecast second week of February.
CTSH: Forecast 1-30-06 or 2-10-06
DATK: Forecast 2-15-06
DBRN: Researching next date; looking at February
DRI: Forecast third week in March.
EOG: Forecast 2-3-06
FTO: Forecast mid-April. Will pinpoint the date shortly.
HAL: Forecast 1-27-06
GIL: Forecast February 1
GILD: New information: Forecast 1-30-06
JEC: Forecast 2-7-06
LCAV: Forecast 1-24-06. No word of an announcement yet but a nice move on the session.
LM: Tentatively forecast 1-24-06. Announced it was delaying its earnings due to acquisition of Citigroup asset management unit.
LUFK: Tentatively forecast in March
MRVL: Forecast 2-23-06
NOV: Forecast 1-23-06. No split announced Monday. New date: 2-24-06
ODP: Forecast 2-23-06
PPDI: Forecast 2-8-06 after the close.
RJF: Forecast 2-9-06
RIO: Researching exact date.
SNDK: Looking at 1-26-06 after the close.
TECH: Forecast for 1-31-06 before the open.
UPL: Forecast 2-8-06
WIRE: Forecast third week of January. Unable to get work on an exact date yet.
XTO: Forecast 2-15-06
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 01/24/2006
DVA (Davita--$56.06; +1.37; optionable): Specialized health services. Forecast to announce a split 2-15-06
BACKGROUND: Announced its only 3:2 split on 5-17-04 at $46.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dva.html
STATUS: Breakout test. After a quick test of the 18 day EMA (53.83) and the early January breakout from a 6 week base, DVA hit the throttle again Tuesday, jumping to a new all-time high on an excellent volume surge. Solid market leader and one of the top stocks in its group. Strong 3 to 1 accumulation complemented by surging money flow. Relative strength made the breakout as well, a good indication the breakout has some stamina to keep thrusting higher.
Volume: 979K Avg Volume: 543.978K
BUY POINT: $56.21 Volume=816K Target=$64.75 Stop=$54.25
POSITION: DVA GK - July $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dva.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays ready to move
Play Date: 01/21/2006
AGN (Allergan--$113.38; +0.52; optionable): Tentatively forecast 2-1-06. Extended its tender offer deadline for IMDC shares to 1-24-06. After that is complete we hear AGN may be ready to split its stock down.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 1-27-2000 at $88.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agn.html
After Hours: $113.38
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Still holding above the 18 day EMA (112.01) as AGN tests back, showing a doji Tuesday on continued lower, below average volume. Still looks solid for a rebound to continue its strong trend higher. To recap: A great market leader and good mover for us, AGN is making one of its periodic tests of the 18 day EMA. This is its third test after the early November breakout sent AGN on this strong run. Looking for AGN to hold this support and then rebound for the next run in the breakout.
Volume: 849.3K Avg Volume: 1.317M
BUY POINT: $113.39 Volume=2M Target=$125 Stop=$111.42
POSITION: AGN GC - July $115c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/agn.html
Play Date: 01/21/2006
GIL (Gildan Activewear--$45.77; +0.63; no options): Clothing. Forecast to announce a split 2-1-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-5-05 at $44.20. Prior to that a 2:1 split on 2-7-01 at $45.50. Just a short time between splits, but has moved well already and GIL won't hesitate to announce again.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gil.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Volume dried up Tuesday as GIL tested the breakout waters, moving slightly above its recent lateral range. Strong trade Monday; just want some more trade as GIL continues its move. To recap: GIL is making its second test of the early December breakout from an 8 week base. Nice volume to start the year and send it higher after its first test, and now a low volume test to near support once more. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout. Like how GIL is ignoring the market and setting up its next move.
Volume: 50.9K Avg Volume: 138.721K
BUY POINT: $45.95 Volume=207K Target=$53.85 Stop=$44.12
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gil.html
Play Date: 01/19/2006
RIO (Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce--$47.83; +0.65; optionable): Steel and iron. Researching to pinpoint an exact date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rio.html
BACKGROUND: Last split 3:1 on 9-7-04 at $57.
STATUS: Breakout test. Metals were stronger Tuesday and RIO gapped higher on stronger volume, but it closed at the session low. Posted a gain, but did not like how it was selling back. If it continues higher from here we will open the play. To recap: Volume has been jumping the past week as RIO tries to resume the breakout move from its 14 week ascending triangle. The breakout sent it to a new all-time high in its short, 4 year history in the market. Outstanding 8 to 2 accumulation in the base shows all buying, setting up a strong run. Relative strength is making the breakout along with stock, a very good indication of the breakout's strength. Looking to move into this leader as it continues higher.
Volume: 4.044M Avg Volume: 2.526M
BUY POINT: $48.27 Volume=2.8M Target=$55.95 Stop=$45.97
POSITION: RIO FI - June $45c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rio.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/17/2006
CELG (Celgene--$67.30; -0.2; optionable): Drugs. Splits 2:1 on 2-27-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
After Hours: $67.25
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Another nice doji at the 18 day EMA (66.41) Tuesday, tapping that support on the low and holding the lateral move over this near support. CELG is just minding its own business, setting up for the break hither to follow that money flow. To recap: CELG broke out from a 6 week base in early December, rallying to 72 on the move. It has come back the past week to test, filling the gap higher from 6 sessions back. It has held the 18 day EMA on the intraday lows the past week and rebounded. Strong leader with money flow moving higher ahead of price. We anticipate CELG is going to continue its run after this test.
Volume: 1.794M Avg Volume: 2.39M
BUY POINT: $68.55 Volume=3.2M Target=$78.85 Stop=$65.48
POSITION: LQH GN - July $70c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/celg.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/21/2006
GPN (Global Payments--$50.76; -0.13; optionable): Payment systems for international clients
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpn.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Volume surged Tuesday but GPN held in a very tight intraday range as it continues its two week lateral move over the 10 day EMA (50.28). We call these spikes when the stock barely moves in a consolidation 'get ready' spikes: they tell us to get ready for the break higher because buyers are buying up all of the shares for sale. Looking for that breakout move. To recap: GPN is working laterally in a tight range above the 10 day EMA, holding its gains to the late December breakout from a 7 week flat base. It has rallied up the 10 day EMA since with a big break higher in January. It got ahead of the 10 day and stalled out waiting for it to catch up. Strong market leader in fundamentals as well as technical pattern. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength has continued its breakout move. Minding its own business as the market sold, setting up for the next rally higher.
Volume: 1.12M Avg Volume: 718.219K
BUY POINT: $51.33 Volume=1.1M Target=$59.95 Stop=$49.68
POSITION: GPN EJ - May $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gpn.html
Play Date: 01/21/2006
NFX (Newfield Exploration--$51.70; -0.33; optionable): Oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nfx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working laterally over the 10 day EMA (51.38) as volume fades off this week after that big spike Friday. Energy has softened some and thus NFX has not made the break it has set up. Once energy gets over this small soft spot NFX will be ready. To recap: NFX is in a 17 week base, ready for the breakout to a new all-time high. Excellent 6 to 2 accumulation in the base shows plenty of buying to send NFX to that new high. May need to reload a bit after last Friday's big surge that it could not hold, and this lateral move on low volume is doing that. Strong stock in a strong pattern, and looking for it to show us another breakout move this week.
Volume: 702.9K Avg Volume: 1.229M
BUY POINT: $52.65 Volume=1.9M Target=$60.95 Stop=$50.78
POSITION: NFX FJ - June $50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nfx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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