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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good Movers: CELL; CRDN; HAL; HOLX; LCAV; MRVL; MSCC; RIO; RJF; SU; TRID
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 01/26/2006
SLB (Schlumberger--$124.34; +3.64; optionable): Oil and gas service company. Splits 2:1 on 4-10-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slb.html
After Hours: $124.52
STATUS: Test breakout. After a quick money making run for us, SLB tested and is not ready to go again. Thursday SLB showed a quick test of the 10 day EMA (117.61), same as Wednesday. This time is jumped back up after that intraday test. Lots of momentum after the split announcement and then the strong earnings announcement the next session. Ready to catch some more of that momentum as it continues the move. Using options to leverage our return on this one.
Volume: 7.03M Avg Volume: 5.806M
BUY POINT: $124.92 Volume=7M Target=$135 Stop=$122.15
POSITION: SLB EZ - May $130c (48 delta) or SLB CU - Mar. $125c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/slb.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Lots of stocks in position for split announcements in January and February. We have some good information on many though some are wild cards, i.e. no split history but hearing word of a possible split announcement. All are good leadership quality stocks that can make us money if they show us the breakout moves.
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AAPL: Forecast 2-10-06
ACI: Forecast 2-10-06. Shook us out with the reach lower and recovery. Will see how it responds here and whether it gives us a new play.
AGN: New information: Forecast 2-1-06
ATW: Potential announcement 1-30-06 after the close
CLE: Forecast 1-26-06. Did not hear anything re a split, but a nice gain again after last week's test of the 50 day EMA.
CLF: Forecast second week of February.
CTSH: Forecast 1-30-06 or 2-10-06
DATK: Forecast 2-15-06
DBRN: Researching next date; looking at February
DRI: Forecast third week in March.
DVN: Forecast 2-15-06
EOG: Forecast 2-3-06
FTO: Forecast mid-April. Will pinpoint the date shortly.
HAL: Forecast 1-27-06. Showing some good action.
GIL: Forecast February 1
GILD: Forecast 1-30-06
JEC: Forecast 2-7-06
LCAV: No announcement 1-24-06, but moving right on up.
LM: New information: Forecast 2-1-06 before the open.
LUFK: Tentatively forecast in March
MRVL: Forecast 2-23-06. Giving us a very nice lead in to the forecast split, surging after hours.
NOV: Forecast 2-24-06
ODP: Forecast 2-23-06
PPDI: Forecast 2-8-06 after the close.
RJF: Forecast 2-9-06
RIO: Researching exact date.
SNDK: Looking at 1-26-06 after the close. No split announcement w/earnings. Crushed the street but was getting hammered after hrs regardless. Will have to see if it rebounds more as it was doing in the late trade as the conference call continued.
TECH: Forecast for 1-31-06 before the open.
UPL: Forecast 2-8-06
WIRE: Forecast third week of January. Shook us out.
XTO: Forecast 2-15-06
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 01/26/2006
HOC (Holly Corp.--$69.80; +2.90; optionable): Oil and gas refining. Potential to announce a split 2-13-06 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 8-2-04 at $39.50. Before that a 2:1 on 6-8-01 at 42.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hoc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume surged Thursday as HOC resumed its breakout, moving off the 10 day EMA (67.19) on a strong volume surge, the strongest since mid-December. Nice 14 week ascending base sporting solid 5 to 3 accumulation, forming using the 50 day EMA (62.51) as support. Key support level and HOC used it well to set up for the new high. Ready to move in on a continued run from here.
Volume: 422.7K Avg Volume: 286.678K
BUY POINT: $70.32 Volume=350K Target=$82 Stop=$67.05
POSITION: HOC FN - June $70c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hoc.html
New Buy Points on Current Positions:
Play Date: 01/25/2006
HAL (Halliburton--$75.15; +0.91; optionable): Oil and gas service company. Potential to announce a split 1-27-06.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split 6-10-97 at $80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hal.html
After Hours: $75.14
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice reach down below the 10 day EMA (73.02) and then a rebound on stronger trade to close positive. Excellent action and still a buy on this move. To recap: Best group in the energy sector. HAL broke out last week with a nice gap higher and is coming back this week to test. Wednesday it tapped at the 10 day EMA on the intraday low and then rebounded to recoup some of its losses. Thursday it undercut that level and then rebounded on even stronger trade, showing the buyers ran back to it. Nice breakout from a 14 week base and this is the first test, one of our favorite entry points.
Volume: 11.464M Avg Volume: 7.205M
BUY POINT: New: $75.42 Volume=10M Target=$84.75 Stop=$72.32
POSITION: HAL GO - July $75c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hal.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays ready to move
Play Date: 01/26/2006
ATW (Atwood Oceanics--$95.54; +2.39; optionable): Oil and gas drilling. Potential to announce 1-30-06 after the close.
BACKGROUND: No splits thus far in ATW's history
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atw.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ATW came back to the 18 day EMA (90.96) on the Thursday intraday low and then rebounded for a gain on rising volume. Nice test after a strong early January breakout from a 15 week cup with handle base. This is its first real test of that move, and we really like the first test to enter. Looking for it to continue back up and follow its strong money flow higher. Excellent base, breakout and test.
Volume: 350.1K Avg Volume: 364.19K
BUY POINT: $96.32 Volume=546K Target=$108.35 Stop=$93.42
POSITION: ATW CS - Mar. $95c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atw.html
Play Date: 01/24/2006
DVA (Davita--$55.17; +0.25; optionable): Specialized health services. Forecast to announce a split 2-15-06
BACKGROUND: Announced its only 3:2 split on 5-17-04 at $46.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dva.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still trying to resume the breakout but up and down the past two sessions. Strong move Tuesday but gave it all back the next session. Hammer doji Thursday over the 10 day EMA (54.66). Just being patient and letting it show us the move. Solid market leader and one of the top stocks in its group. Strong 3 to 1 accumulation complemented by surging money flow. Relative strength made the breakout as well, a good indication the breakout has some stamina to keep thrusting higher.
Volume: 704.2K Avg Volume: 555.887K
BUY POINT: $56.21 Volume=816K Target=$64.75 Stop=$54.25
POSITION: DVA GK - July $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dva.html
Play Date: 01/26/2006
LM (Legg Mason--$131.98; +1.07; optionable): Investment brokerage services. Forecast to announce a split 2-1-06 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split 7-20-04 at $76.50. It was a long drought before that when it announced a 2:1 split in July 1998 at a price of $62.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lm.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. LM is moving laterally in a narrow range the past week following a nice run this month when it broke out from a 6 week base. Volume has started to turn back up over the past week, and Thursday LM was starting higher on rising, average trade. Looking for it to make a break from this range to give us a run into next week.
Volume: 941.5K Avg Volume: 939.694K
BUY POINT: $132.95 Volume=1.4M Target=$149.95 Stop=$129.21
POSITION: LM EG - May $135c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lm.html
Play Date: 01/26/2006
UPL (Ultra Petroleum--$65.88; +0.20; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Forecast to announce a split 2-8-06.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-9-05 at $51.60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/upl.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Similar to many strong oil and gas stocks, UPL broke out in early January from a 14 week cup with handle that formed using the 50 day EMA (58.56) as support. Nice run to 70 and now a nice test, reaching down to the 18 day EMA (63.31) on the low and rebounding to close positive. After this test it is ready to resume the breakout run and on to another new high.
Volume: 2.985M Avg Volume: 1.693M
BUY POINT: $66.65 Volume=2M Target=$76.65 Stop=$64.78
POSITION: UPL FN - June $70c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/upl.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/17/2006
CELG (Celgene--$68.91; +2.1; optionable): Drugs. Splits 2:1 on 2-27-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
After Hours: $68.85
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Volume was up Thursday but still below average as CELG moved off the 18 day EMA (66.71). Looks to be starting and just needs another good session of trade. To recap: CELG broke out from a 6 week base in early December, rallying to 72 on the move. It has come back the past week to test, filling the gap higher from 6 sessions back. It has held the 18 day EMA on the intraday lows the past week and rebounded. Strong leader with money flow moving higher ahead of price. We anticipate CELG is going to continue its run after this test.
Volume: 2.321M Avg Volume: 2.387M
BUY POINT: New: $69.12 (orig. $68.55) Volume=3.2M Target=$78.85 Stop=$65.48
POSITION: LQH GN - July $70c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/celg.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/24/2006
PSYS (Psychiatric Solutions--$32.66; +0.54; optionable): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psys.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still holding over the 10 day EMA (32.13), reaching lower toward the 18 day EMA (31.54) intraday to shake out the remaining sellers. Nice action and ready for the move. To recap: PSYS broke out from a 7 week base in early January, surging on strong volume. It is making its second test of that move, easing back the past three sessions on much lower volume but holding onto its gains. It does not want to give the move up, a good sign. Strong money flow is leading higher and a good relative strength breakout shows the move has some guts.
Volume: 349.42K Avg Volume: 651.07K
BUY POINT: $32.88 on the rebound Volume=800K Target=$38.95 Stop=$31.77
POSITION: BYU FZ - June $32.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psys.html
Play Date: 01/23/2006
SRZ (Sunrise Assisted Living--$35.79; +0.08; optionable): Long-term care facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srz.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A short handle has formed to the short 7 week base, holding tight over the 18 day EMA (35.30). Big volume Thursday as SRZ shows a hammer doji at the 10 day EMA (35.58). The volume indicates it is getting ready to make the move, but it has to show it.
Volume: 524.1K Avg Volume: 369.564K
BUY POINT: $36.25 Volume=565K Target=$41.95 Stop=$34.98
POSITION: SRZ GG - July $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/srz.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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