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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good Movers: ATW; BOOM; ESRX; HAL; HOLX; JEC; MRVL; PPDI; SLB; SU; WFT
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 01/28/2006
TKC (Turkcell--$16.73; +0.18; optionable): Wireless communications in Turkey
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tkc.html
Earnings: April 5
STATUS: Breakout test. Wireless is hot wherever you are in the world. TKC split in June 2005 in the middle of a big 11 month base. It broke out in mid-November and has worked up the 50 day EMA (15.55) since, forming another shorter 7 week ascending base. It made the breakout in mid-January and then moved laterally last week along the 10 day EMA (16.34), setting up the next move higher in the breakout. Friday volume surged back up to breakout levels as TKC moved off that support. Strong 3 to 1 accumulation in the base (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) shows more buying as TKC consolidated the first breakout move. Like the surge Friday, and we expect TKC to continue the breakout move this week.
Volume: 825.3K Avg Volume: 420.171K
BUY POINT: $16.89 Volume=630K Target=$20.98 Stop=$16.11
POSITION: TKC GC - July $15c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tkc.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Lots of stocks in position for split announcements in January and February. We have some good information on many though some are wild cards, i.e. no split history but hearing word of a possible split announcement. All are good leadership quality stocks that can make us money if they show us the breakout moves.
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AAPL: Forecast 2-10-06
ACI: Forecast 2-10-06. Still watching to see if ACI will set up and give us an entry point ahead of the forecast date.
AGN: Forecast 2-1-06
ATW: Potential announcement 1-30-06 after the close
CLF: Forecast second week of February.
CTSH: Forecast 1-30-06 or 2-10-06
DATK: Forecast 2-15-06
DBRN: Researching next date; looking at February for this strong stock.
DRI: Forecast third week in March.
DVN: Forecast 2-15-06
EOG: Forecast 2-3-06
FTO: Forecast mid-April. Picking up a bit of momentum off the 18 day EMA.
HAL: Forecast 1-27-06. No split announcement Friday but simply acting strong.
HOC: Forecast 2-13-06.
GIL: Forecast February 1
GILD: Forecast 1-30-06
JEC: Forecast 2-7-06
LCAV: Researching next potential date as no announcement 1-24-06, but still trending higher above the 10 day EMA. This is why we love split candidates as they are leaders and perform well.
LM: Forecast 2-1-06 before the open.
LUFK: Tentatively forecast in March
MRVL: Forecast 2-23-06. Gapped higher and rallied, giving us a good interim gain before fading some off the high to close. Love to bank some money along the way to the split announcement.
NOV: Forecast 2-24-06
ODP: Forecast 2-23-06
PPDI: Forecast 2-8-06 after the close.
RJF: Forecast 2-9-06
RIO: Researching exact date.
SNDK: No split announced 1-26-06 after the close. Managed to hold the 50 day EMA after gapping lower. Will see if it can give us a bounce back from here toward some resistance at 70
TECH: Forecast for 1-31-06 before the open.
UPL: Forecast 2-8-06
XTO: Forecast 2-15-06
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 01/28/2006
BIO (Bio-rad Labs--$67.97; +1.72; optionable): Life science research products & clinical diagnostics. Forecast 2-2-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 2-7-02 at a price of $57.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bio.html
STATUS: Breakout test. BIO is moving laterally, working along the 18 day EMA (66.51) the past three weeks, using that as support as it consolidates the mid-December breakout from a 4.5 month cup with handle base. Strong stock as it hangs onto its gains as it consolidates, refusing to give them back. Volume started higher to end the week, after a very low volume lateral move. That often precedes the next upside move. Strong money flow is leading higher. Want to see that volume continue to move up as BIO moves through the buy point and continues the breakout run. Consistently a strong stock, evidenced by the break to a new all-time high.
Volume: 59.3K Avg Volume: 71K
BUY POINT: $68.48 Volume=115K Target=$78.85 Stop=$65.88
POSITION: BIO FN - June $70c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bio.html
Play Date: 01/28/2006
CNQ (Canadian Natural Resources--$59.94; +1.16; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Forecast 2-23-06.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 3-17-05 at $58. Prior to that a 2:1 split on 2-25-04 at $49.90.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnq.html
After Hours: $59.88
STATUS: Test breakout. CNQ is right back in the split range for the third straight new year, rallying in mid-January to put some teeth into the mid-December breakout move that was so-so. It came back to test the 50 day EMA after that move and that gave it some legs. Solid volume to weeks back and then a nice easy pullback to tap at the 18 day EMA (55.61) on the Thursday low before rebounding. Looking to move in on a return of strong volume that sends it higher. If it comes back to the 10 day EMA (57.32) once more before continuing, no problem; we will pick it up off that test. Nice 17 week base sporting 5 to 3 accumulation set up this move. Strong money flow to boot and a relative strength breakout on the move two weeks back. Looks solid for another announcement.
Volume: 768K Avg Volume: 1.129M
BUY POINT: $60.55 Volume=1.2M Target=$71.95 Stop=$58.32
POSITION: CNQ FL - June $60c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cnq.html
Play Date: 01/28/2006
GVA (Granite Construction--$40.56; -0.44; optionable): Heavy construction. Potential announcement 11-22-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 2-21-01 at $32.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gva.html
STATUS: Breakout test. It ahs been awhile but GVA has surpassed the prior split level for the first time, breaking out from an 18 week base last Tuesday on very strong trade. Nicely formed ascending base sporting solid 5 to 3 accumulation; net buying during the consolidation that set up the next breakout and run. After the strong Tuesday move it stalled a bit but held its gains. Looking for it to continue higher from here and resume the breakout move. Solid money flow is leading, and relative strength broke out with the stock price, a good corroboration of its strength. Excellent fundamentals.
Volume: 373.2K Avg Volume: 224.384K
BUY POINT: $41.11 Volume=337K Target=$48.88 Stop=$39.54
POSITION: GVA FH - June $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gva.html
Play Date: 01/28/2006
QSII (Quality Systems--$82; +2.04; optionable): Healthcare info systems for dental and medical group practices. Forecast to announce a split 2-2-06.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-2-05 at $69.90
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qsii.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. QSII is working through an 8 week base, using the 50 day EMA (78.48) as support. This is the third base in the past 7 months as QSII has powered higher since early 2005. These periodic bases give it the rest it needs to continue the move. It still has some work to do here, but we like how it has held the 50 day EMA on the lows, a sign the big institutions are supporting the stock as it consolidates. It may not give us a strong move before the earnings announcement next Thursday. If it does we will start some positions; if not we will take a partial ahead of the event. Solid leader and tops in its sector.
Volume: 119.418K Avg Volume: 277.936K
BUY POINT: $83.55 Volume=400K Target=$99.92 Stop=$79.85
POSITION: QCR FQ - June $85c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qsii.html
Play Date: 01/28/2006
TLM (Talisman Energy--$60.51; +0.62; optionable): Oil and gas. Forecast to announce a split 3-1-06.
BACKGROUND: Last split 3:1 on 3-3-04 at $59.00
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tlm.html
STATUS: Breakout test. TLM broke out from a 16 week base to start the year, moving on strong volume and rallying near 65 on that move. Last week it came back to test the move, tapping the 18 day EMA (58.16) on the Thursday intraday low and then rebounding. Nice lower volume test of the breakout, taking a breather and setting up the next move higher. Strong 6 to 2 accumulation shows plenty of buying as TLM consolidated in the base, and that sets the stage for the breakout rally. May come back a bit to test the 10 day EMA (59.61) again. After that test it will be ready to move higher once more.
Volume: 1.075M Avg Volume: 1.125M
BUY POINT: $60.75 Volume=1.7M Target=$71.95 Stop=$58.45
POSITION: TLM GL - July $60c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tlm.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays ready to move
Play Date: 01/21/2006
AGN (Allergan--$114.32; +1.07; optionable): Pharmaceutical products for ophthalmic, neurological and dermatological markets. Tentatively forecast 2-1-06. Extended its tender offer deadline for IMDC shares to 1-24-06. After that is complete we hear AGN may be ready to split its stock down.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 1-27-2000 at $88.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agn.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Looking stronger Friday as AGN tapped the 18 day EMA (112.52) on the low and rebounding for a nice gain on rising but a bit lower volume. Still very solid with strong money flow and relative strength. Looking for a breakaway move this week. To recap: A great market leader and good mover for us, AGN is making one of its periodic tests of the 18 day EMA. This is its third test after the early November breakout sent AGN on this strong run. Looking for AGN to hold this support and then rebound for the next run in the breakout.
Volume: 1.132M Avg Volume: 1.329M
BUY POINT: New: $114.45 (orig. $113.39) Volume=2M Target=$125 Stop=$111.42
POSITION: AGN GC - July $115c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/agn.html
Play Date: 01/24/2006
DVA (Davita--$54.90; -0.27; optionable): Specialized health services. Forecast to announce a split 2-15-06
BACKGROUND: Announced its only 3:2 split on 5-17-04 at $46.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dva.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume backed off to end the week as DVA settled on the 10 day EMA (54.70), its support of the past two weeks after its strong early January move. All of the indicators remain strong; just has to show us the move. To recap: Solid market leader and one of the top stocks in its group. Strong 3 to 1 accumulation complemented by surging money flow. Relative strength made the breakout as well, a good indication the breakout has some stamina to keep thrusting higher.
Volume: 524.3K Avg Volume: 556.06K
BUY POINT: $56.21 Volume=816K Target=$64.75 Stop=$54.25
POSITION: DVA GK - July $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dva.html
Play Date: 01/12/2006
FTO (Frontier Oil--$45.05; +1.51; optionable): Oil and gas refining. Forecast to announce a split mid-April.
BACKGROUND: Announced its only 2:1 split on 4-15-05 (tax day) at $39.40.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fto.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. FTO broke higher from its 15 week base two weeks back, but volume has been spotty at best. It fell back hard on Wednesday, but held at the 18 day EMA (42.41). That bounced it, with volume moving back above average Friday as it hit a pattern high. Looking for some more solid trade as FTO continues higher. If we see that we will start a part of the position. To recap: FTO formed a prolonged handle to its 14 week base, moving laterally along the 10 day EMA as it did. Nice pattern that has formed just below and all-time high. A strong market leader that needed this rest. The leader in its sector with strong fundamentals and a very strong pattern. Volume has yet to swell on this move, and typically trade will jump just before a stock makes its breakout.
Volume: 1.241M Avg Volume: 1.195M
BUY POINT: New: $45.42 (orig. $42.12) Volume=2M Target=$53.55 Stop=$40.21
POSITION: FTO GI - July $45c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fto.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/24/2006
PSYS (Psychiatric Solutions--$32.80; +0.14; optionable): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psys.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Firming up over the 10 day EMA (32.25) to end the week. Looks to be completing its test of the strong break higher two weeks back. Just need to see volume jumping as it resumes the breakout move. To recap: PSYS broke out from a 7 week base in early January, surging on strong volume. It is making its second test of that move, easing back the past three sessions on much lower volume but holding onto its gains. It does not want to give the move up, a good sign. Strong money flow is leading higher and a good relative strength breakout shows the move has some guts.
Volume: 430.817K Avg Volume: 622.994K
BUY POINT: $32.88 on the rebound Volume=800K Target=$38.95 Stop=$31.77
POSITION: BYU FZ - June $32.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psys.html
Play Date: 01/23/2006
SRZ (Sunrise Assisted Living--$36.37; +0.58; optionable): Long-term care facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srz.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still holding over the 10 day EMA (35.73), its resting point the past week as it came back to form the handle to its short 7 week base that is setting it up for a new all-time high. Used the 50 day EMA (34.57) a support, an important level for a stock to consolidate. Looking for a strong volume kick as we saw on Thursday and a move that sticks.
Volume: 192.6K Avg Volume: 369.397K
BUY POINT: New: $36.72 (orig. $36.25) Volume=565K Target=$41.95 Stop=$34.98
POSITION: SRZ GG - July $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/srz.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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