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trade stock, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AMTD; CKCM; CMED; CRM; HAL; NOVL; NXY; SLB;
Strong plays:
1) ENER: Lots of volume as it rebounds on strong trade.
2) TOMO: Surging higher on volume.
3) WBSN: An aggressive play, but setting up nicely.
4) CKCM: Making the next breakout and ready for a new buy.
5) ABI: Low volume test of the Friday move.
6) SCUR: Looks as if the test is over.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 01/30/2006
ENER (Energy Conversion Devices--$51.75; +3.85; optionable): Alternative energy products and devices (hybrid car components)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ener.html
After Hours: $51.80
STATUS: Breakout test. ENER made gave us a great run in December and January as it broke from a 12 week cup with handle base that formed along the 50 day EMA (42.52), using that key level as support. It blasted higher and rallied up the 10 day EMA (51.22), peaked at 58, and then fell last week. It caught itself Monday just below the 18 day EMA (49.20) and then rebounded on strong volume for a solid gain. Solid recovery move that held the breakout on the test. Ready to move in as it continues higher toward another new all-time high.
Volume: 3.498M Avg Volume: 1.613M
BUY POINT: $52.25 Volume=2.4M Target=$62.75 Stop=$49.89
POSITION: EQU FK - June $55c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ener.html
Play Date: 01/30/2006
FORM (Formfactor--$30.28; -0.88; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/form.html
Earnings: 2-1-06
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders breakout test. FORM is making a test toward the 10 day EMA (29.16)after a strong break higher two weeks back from its 30 week base. Strong initial move that immediately tumbled back on expiration Friday. It regrouped, held the breakout and started higher. After the surge last week FORM took Monday off on lower volume. It may come back to test the 10 day EMA fully; if it does, we pick it off as it rebounds on some good trade. If not we pick it up as it moves higher.
Volume: 602.989K Avg Volume: 417.979K
BUY POINT: Test 29, then $29.78 on the rebound. From the Monday close: $30.55 Volume=627K Target=$35.75 Stop=$29.04
POSITION: AFU GF - July $30c (55 delta) &?or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/form.html
Play Date: 01/30/2006
TOMO (Tom Online--$23.35; +1.35; optionable): Multimedia products & services from its internet portal, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tomo.html
After Hours: $23.33
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders breakout. After a strong move two weeks back that was pushed back on expiration Friday, TOMO drifted on low volume and then exploded higher Monday on the strongest volume in 1.5 months outside of expiration Friday. Excellent fundamentals to go with the pattern. Breaking to a new all-time high after forming the current base at the 50 day EMA (20.73). Strong move and looking to step in on a continued break higher and then on a test of that initial move.
Volume: 597.704K Avg Volume: 345.57K
BUY POINT: $23.57 Volume=375K Target=$28.35 Stop=$21.98
POSITION: QWX FX - June $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tomo.html
Play Date: 01/30/2006
WBSN (Websense--$65.05; +1.35; optionable): Employee internet management software products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wbsn.html
After Hours: $65.07
Earnings: 1-31-06 after the close
STATUS: Double bottom. Broke out from a great 8.5 month cup with handle base in mid-November, rallying from 60 to 69. It then slipped into the current 5 week base, consolidating the breakout move. It held above 60 on the two legs of the short double bottom, holding the breakout move from the larger base. Volume was up toward average Monday as WBSN moved higher. Want to see trade continue to build as it breaks higher and through the buy point. Positive 2 to 0 accumulation in the current pattern, and money flow has turned back up ahead of price. A top rated stock in earnings growth and set up very well to make the next key move. Earnings are after the Tuesday close, making entering Tuesday an aggressive play. We like what it is showing us in the pattern.
Volume: 408.262K Avg Volume: 506.21K
BUY POINT: $65.65 Volume=750K Target=$74.95 Stop=$63.92
POSITION: DQH GM - July $65c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wbsn.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 01/31/2006
CKCM (Click Commerce--$29.49; +2.26; optionable): On-demand supply chain management solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ckcm.html
After Hours: $29.48
Earnings: 2-16-05
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong break higher last week off the 50 day SMA, a quick test to end last week, and then a strong volume surge Monday off a modest 10 day EMA (26.70) test. Strong 6 to 3 accumulation in the larger 24 week base set up the move, and now CKCM is making the break to a 4+ year high. Strong.
Volume: 706.365K Avg Volume: 497.84K
BUY POINT: $29.78 Volume=600K Target=$34.25 Stop=$28.12
POSITION: QCP FF - June $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ckcm.html
Play Date: 01/28/2006
VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$51.06; +0.37; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
After Hours: $50.96
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice hold over the 10 day EMA (50.04) on very low, below average volume. It took a breather and after this test and hold of the 10 day EMA, it is ready to continue the move higher. To recap: VSEA fell back to the 10 day EMA Friday, gapping lower after earnings failed to totally please after a nice breakout and run higher put a little froth in the price. It held that near support, however, showing a hammer doji. This is just a pullback to test near support after a the early January breakout from its nice 19 week base. Looking for this support to hold with maybe another tap toward the 10 day EMA and then a rebound to continue the move and give us another entry point.
Volume: 659.876K Avg Volume: 900.008K
BUY POINT: $51.12 Volume=1.4M Target=$58.78 Stop=$49.65
POSITION: UES EJ - May $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vsea.html
Play Date: 01/25/2006
CTXS (Citrix Systems--$31.04; -0.43; optionable): Internet access infrastructure software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctxs.html
After Hours: $31.12
STATUS: Breakout test. Low volume pullback continues as CTXS trades right at the 10 day EMA (31.06), testing the strong earnings breakout two weeks back. Looking for that volume to kick back in and take it back up. To recap: CTXS made us a nice gain already this month when it reported strong earnings and shot higher. It has come back to test that move, basically filling the gap as it has come back to rest on the 10 day EMA. Volume jumped last Wednesday as it made the test and showed a hammer doji. Looking for a continuation of the breakout run after this nice test that filled the gap.
Volume: 1.444M Avg Volume: 2.103M
BUY POINT: $31.85 Volume=3M Target=$36.95 Stop=$30.65
POSITION: XSQ FF - June $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ctxs.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 01/28/2006
ABI (Applera Corp-Appliaed Biosystems--$28.52; -0.41; optionable): Technologies & products to support genomics research.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abi.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Low volume breather Monday after a strong volume move Friday started the breakout. Nice quick test gives us a new entry point on the rebound. To recap: Strong volume Friday as ABI broke out of an 8 week base that used the 50 day EMA (27.01) as support. Strong earnings the past week gave it the push to make the breakout. Strong 3 to 1 accumulation shows net buying, setting the foundation for the breakout run. Money flow is strong as well, surging higher ahead of price. Relative strength moving with the stock, a good confirmation of the breakout move. Looking to move in as ABI continues the break higher and then again on the first test.
Volume: 793.7K Avg Volume: 1.261M
BUY POINT: $29.18 Volume=1.4M Target=$33.95 Stop=$27.75
POSITION: ABI FF - June $30c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abi.html
Play Date: 01/28/2006
BTUI (BTU International--$15.36; +0.15; no options): Chip equipment (thermal processing systems)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/btui.html
After Hours: $15.31
Earnings: 2-15-06
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher Monday on continued strong volume, running to 16.25 on the high and then giving most of the move back. Solid and if this gap higher and pullback turns into a continued run higher then BTUI is ready for us. To recap: BTUI rallied from July to November, coming off the bottom of a 1.5 year base. It needed a breather and slipped into the current 10 week pattern, using the 50 day EMA (13.73) as support. Key level as it shows the big money stepping in to accumulate positions; the 50 day is where they tend to do it. Solid volume Friday as BTUI started the move. Looking for continued strong trade as BTUI makes the move through the early January high and gives us the breakout.
Volume: 399.187K Avg Volume: 296.71K
BUY POINT: $15.82 Volume=445K Target=$18.95 Stop=$14.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/btui.html
Play Date: 01/21/2006
CRUS (Cirrus Logic--$8.15; -0.11; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crus.html
Earnings: 1-25-06 after the close
After Hours: $8.18
STATUS: Breakout test. Stabilizing after earnings gapped it lower, holding the 10 day EMA (8.09) Monday on lower but still above average volume. Looking for CRUS to hold here and then rebound on strong trade. To recap: CRUS broke higher two weeks back on some strong volume then gave back some of the move on expiration Friday as technology and chips sold back with the market. Still holding the breakout from its 21 week base sporting strong 8 to 4 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume), showing plenty of buying during the base.
Volume: 1.027M Avg Volume: 809.978K
BUY POINT: New: $8.48 (orig. $8.39) Volume=1.2M Target=$10.49 Stop=$7.88
POSITION: CUQ FU - June $7.50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crus.html
Play Date: 01/28/2006
SCUR (Secure Computing--$14.45; -0.15; optionable): Network security solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scur.html
Earnings: 2-2-06
After Hours: $14.37
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After reversing off the Friday intraday high, SCUR fell a bit more, tapping the 10 day EMA (14.29) on the low and rebounding for a modest loss. Lower, average volume on the move shows no sellers. Looking for it to hold this level and rebound on strong trade to give us the entry point. To recap: Broke out from a short but nice 7 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (13.41) as support. It immediately has come back to test, holding key support as it does. Outstanding 5 to 1 accumulation as it formed up. That shows plenty of buying as it consolidated and set up the next move. Money flow complements the accumulation, running higher ahead of price. Looking for SCUR to reload after the Friday fade and continue the breakout that started on Thursday.
Volume: 514.347K Avg Volume: 567.698K
BUY POINT: $14.88 Volume=852K Target=$17.88 Stop=$14.18
POSITION: UQU GC - July $15c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/scur.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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