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stock recommendation, stock picking
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BTUI; CYMI; FORM; VSEA; WBSN
Strong plays:
1) MDCC: Strong volume and strong price move.
2) RADS: Excellent test of the 10 day EMA and the breakout.
3) SPIL: Nice set up for the chip stock.
4) ABI: Looks as if the pullback is over.
5) SCUR: Volume is picking up as SCUR moves toward the breakout.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 02/01/2006
MDCC (Molecular Devices--$29.6; +1.01; optionable): Bioanalytical measurement systems for drug discovery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdcc.html
Earnings: 2-8-06
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Strong volume Wednesday as MDCC surged off the 50 day EMA (27.55) after a 3 week pullback to test a nice November to January run. The 50 day EMA is one of the key points where the institutional investors step in to buy more positions. Volume started higher Monday and Tuesday as MDCC gathered for the move. Strong start and looking to move in as MDCC continues higher, following its strong money flow.
Volume: 248.024K Avg Volume: 165.872K
BUY POINT: $29.88 Volume=249K Target=$34.95 Stop=$28.45
POSITION: MCQ GF - July $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mdcc.html
Play Date: 02/01/2006
RADS (Radian Systems--$13.74; -0.26; optionable): Retail and food service management software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rads.html
Earnings: 2-8-06
STATUS: Ascending base. After a strong mid-January surge, RADS is coming back the past week on lower and lower volume. It broke out on that move and is now making a solid test. Strong 8 to 4 accumulation in the base (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying, setting up the next run after this breakout test. Strong money flow is leading higher, a good complement to accumulation. Relative strength broke out on the stock break, a good corroboration. Ready to move in on a strong volume rebound.
Volume: 184.839K Avg Volume: 320.908K
BUY POINT: $14.12 Volume=400K Target=$17.48 Stop=$13.48
POSITION: QRC GC - July $15c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rads.html
Play Date: 02/01/2006
SPIL (Siliconware Precision--$7.53; +0.02; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spil.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A short, nice base ahs formed the past 4 weeks as SPIL takes a breather after a breakout and solid move in December and on into early January. Strong 3 to 0 accumulation shows that there is only buying during this consolidation and that SPIL will be ready to move higher and continue its rally. It may take another day or two to finish the handle, but with chips starting back up Wednesday we want to be ready.
Volume: 981.584K Avg Volume: 1.357M
BUY POINT: $7.75 Volume=2M Target=$9.32 Stop=$7.25
POSITION: QSP FU - June $7.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/spil.html
Play Date: 02/01/2006
VTAL (Vital Images--$29.84; -0.71; optionable): Analytical software for use in diagnosis, disease screening, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vtal.html
Earnings: 2-16-06
STATUS: Breakout test. VTAL surged out of a 9 week cup with handle base in late January and is starting to make the test. Strong stock that moved to a new all time high on that breakout. Strong 3 to 1 accumulation shows continued buying even as the stock consolidated, using the key 50 day EMA (26.77) as support. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout with the stock, a very good indication of the move's strength. Looking for VTAL to test back toward the 10 day EMA at 28.82 and then rebound. That is when we move in.
Volume: 295.487K Avg Volume: 135.522K
BUY POINT: Test 28.85 and then $29.25 on the rebound. Volume=203K Target=$33.95 Stop=$28.05
POSITION: HXQ GF - July $30c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vtal.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 01/31/2006
CKCM (Click Commerce--$28.72; -1.03; optionable): On-demand supply chain management solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ckcm.html
After Hours: $28.73
Earnings: 2-16-05
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Solid move Monday but then faded back Wednesday on continued above average volume. It managed to close off the session low (28.23); may still come back toward the 10 day EMA (27.52) before it recovers and moves again. To recap: Strong break higher last week off the 50 day SMA, a quick test to end last week, and then a strong volume surge Monday off a modest 10 day EMA test. Strong 6 to 3 accumulation in the larger 24 week base set up the move, and now CKCM is making the break to a 4+ year high. Strong.
Volume: 757.191K Avg Volume: 512.47K
BUY POINT: $29.78 Volume=600K Target=$34.25 Stop=$28.12
POSITION: QCP FF - June $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ckcm.html
Play Date: 01/25/2006
CTXS (Citrix Systems--$31.14; +0.3; optionable): Internet access infrastructure software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctxs.html
After Hours: $31.04
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped lower Wednesday, finishing filling the gap and holding some support at 30. It rebounded to post a modest gain on rising volume, managing to close above the 10 day EMA (31.04). Strong money flow remains. Just waiting for CTXS to continue higher on the breakout move after filling the gap. To recap: CTXS made us a nice gain already this month when it reported strong earnings and shot higher. It has come back to test that move, basically filling the gap as it has come back to rest on the 10 day EMA. Slipped lower but showed its investor support as it recovered to hold the 10 and 18 day EMA. Looking for a continuation of the breakout run after this nice test that filled the gap.
Volume: 1.699M Avg Volume: 2.042M
BUY POINT: $31.85 Volume=3M Target=$36.95 Stop=$30.65
POSITION: XSQ FF - June $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ctxs.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 01/28/2006
ABI (Applera Corp-Appliaed Biosystems--$28.27; -0.07; optionable): Technologies & products to support genomics research.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abi.html
STATUS: Ascending base. ABI continued the test, tapping at the 18 day EMA (27.95) on the low and rebounding to close just above the 10 day EMA. Nice point to make a higher low and continue higher and complete the breakout. To recap: Strong volume Friday as ABI broke out of an 8 week base that used the 50 day EMA (27.11) as support. Strong earnings the past week gave it the push to make the breakout. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation shows net buying, setting the foundation for the breakout run. Money flow is strong as well, surging higher ahead of price. Relative strength moving with the stock, a good confirmation of the breakout move. Looking to move in as ABI continues the break higher and then again on the first test.
Volume: 929.3K Avg Volume: 1.22M
BUY POINT: $29.18 Volume=1.4M Target=$33.95 Stop=$27.75
POSITION: ABI FF - June $30c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abi.html
Play Date: 01/21/2006
CRUS (Cirrus Logic--$8.49; +0.02; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crus.html
Earnings: 1-25-06 after the close
STATUS: Breakout test. Still banging its head against 8.50, the resistance hit 3 of the last 4 sessions. Money flow is strong and leading higher. Volume has been kicking up the past week. CRUS looks ready to make the move. To recap: CRUS broke higher three weeks back on some strong volume then gave back some of the move on expiration Friday as technology and chips sold back with the market. Still holding the breakout from its 21 week base sporting strong 8 to 4 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume), showing plenty of buying during the base.
Volume: 736.341K Avg Volume: 827.403K
BUY POINT: New: $8.57 (orig. $8.39) Volume=1.2M Target=$10.49 Stop=$7.88
POSITION: CUQ FU - June $7.50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crus.html
Play Date: 01/31/2006
OCAS (Ohio Casualty--$30.19; +0.05; optionable): P&C Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ocas.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Another doji Wednesday as OCAS butts against the breakout point. Volume backed off so not enough to break it out. It remains, however, quite solid. To recap: OCAS is bumping resistance, setting up for the breakout. Right on the edge of the breakout from an 8 week base that formed making higher lows along support at the 50 day EMA (28.99). Solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) is setting up the move along with strong money flow. Insurance stocks are performing well in this market, and OCAS is ready for a new all-time high on a breakout.
Volume: 186.018K Avg Volume: 229.194K
BUY POINT: $30.55 Volume=344K Target=$35 Stop=$29.42
POSITION: OHQ EF - May $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ocas.html
Play Date: 01/28/2006
SCUR (Secure Computing--$14.87; +0.31; optionable): Network security solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scur.html
Earnings: 2-2-06
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume moved higher to average Wednesday as SCUR posted a nice price gain, moving toward the breakout. Just needs to show us stronger volume as it clears the recent highs. To recap: Broke out from a short but nice 7 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (13.55) as support. It immediately has come back to test, holding key support as it does. Outstanding 5 to 1 accumulation as it formed up. That shows plenty of buying as it consolidated and set up the next move. Money flow complements the accumulation, running higher ahead of price. Looks as if SCUR has reloaded after the Friday fade and is ready to continue the breakout that started on Thursday.
Volume: 517.228K Avg Volume: 496.89K
BUY POINT: New: $15.11 to clear recent highs (orig. $14.88) Volume=852K Target=$17.88 Stop=$14.18
POSITION: UQU GC - July $15c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/scur.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock picking
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