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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: CELL; DIOD; DRI; IMGC; NIHD; RFJ; WFT
New Potential Pre-Announcement Play:
Play Date: 02/08/2006
ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch--$69.05; +0.57; optionable): Apparel stores
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-11-99 at $95.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anf.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. ANF is easing back the past week, tapping at the 10 day EMA (67.60) on the Wednesday low and rebounding to post a modest gain. Solid 7.5 month base has formed, setting up the breakout to a new all-time high. Strong 11 to 6 accumulation shows net buying in the consolidation; that accumulation will be the foundation for the breakout and run higher. Solid fundamentals to go with the strong technical pattern. Looking for a return of volume as ANF continues higher.
Volume: 1.06M Avg Volume: 2.238M
BUY POINT: $70.65 Volume=3.4M Target=$81.95 Stop=$67.45
POSITION: ANF EN - May $70c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anf.html
Leader Plays: These stocks could turn into pre-announcement plays. The patterns are solid as are the stocks, and they can make us money as they breakout from these bases.
Play Date: 02/04/2006
FFIV (F5 Networks--$63.34; +0.75; optionable): Internet traffic management products & services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
After Hours: $63.27
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice doji Wednesday as FFIV reached down to the 18 day EMA (62.30) and rebounding to post a decent gain. Volume remained low. Still looks solid and ready to move. Just needs some volume. To recap: FFIV has formed a short 5 week base using the 50 day EMA (58.80) as support, a key support level for stocks as big money uses these tests to add to positions. It broke out from a 10 month cup with handle base to start January, rallied some, and then fell into the current base when it sold off sharply when YHOO announced earnings. FFIV announced its own about a week lateral and gapped back up. It looks as if it is just about ready to complete the handle to the new base, holding the 10 day EMA and 18 day EMA. May take a couple more days to finish the pattern, but a market leader and the leader in its group. When it moves, it moves in a hurry.
Volume: 672.127K Avg Volume: 1.091M
BUY POINT: $64.45 Volume=1.7M Target=$76.95 Stop=$62.65
POSITION: FLK GM - July $65c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ffiv.html
Play Date: 02/04/2006
SLAB (Silicon Labs--$48.36; -0.48; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slab.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still the nice test of the 10 day EMA (48.08), fading Wednesday on low, below average volume. Biding its time and now ready to move higher. To recap: SLAB gapped higher the fourth week of January on a strong earnings report, breaking out from a two year cup with handle pattern. It came back to test the 10 day EMA last week, and then bounced Friday on rising, above average volume. Strong stock in a strong sector. Looking to start the play on a continued volume move higher as SLAB follows the strong money flow higher. Relative strength broke out on the move, a good corroboration of the stock move.
Volume: 846.593K Avg Volume: 1.201M
BUY POINT: $50.12 Volume=1.6M Target=$59.95 Stop=$47.68
POSITION: QFJ GJ - July $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slab.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays ready to move
Play Date: 02/04/2006
PNRA (Panera Bread--$71.74; +0.5; optionable): Restaurants. Forecast to announce 2-9-06 after the close.
BACKGROUND: Announced its only 2:1 split on 4-10-02 at $62.00
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pnra.html
After Hours: $71.78
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume did not move higher with PNRA Wednesday, but it still looks solid, ready to make the breakout to a new all-time high. To recap: PNRA is ready to make the breakout from its current 7 week base that formed on the heels of a 5 month cup with handle and breakout in mid-November. This quick consolidation in the current base has set up a nice run ahead for PNRA. Strong 3 to 1 accumulation in the current base (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows buying as it consolidated, complementing the good money flow. Volume started higher Friday as PNRA moved toward the breakout, and relative strength is ready for the breakout as well. Solid leader ready to lead higher once more.
Volume: 302.044K Avg Volume: 530.543K
BUY POINT: New: $71.89 (orig. $71.72) Volume=801K Target=$82.55 Stop=$68.55
POSITION: UPA EN - May $70c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pnra.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/07/2006
DADE (Dade Behring Holdings--$41.19; +0.19; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dade.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Strong volume again Wednesday as DADE moved toward the breakout point. Looking solid. To recap: DADE broke out from a 14 week base in early November and rallied to 41. It has worked laterally the past 8 weeks, coming back to test the 50 day EMA (40.45), holding, then starting higher this month on rising volume. Stronger trade Tuesday as it bounced up off the 50 day. Strong 4 to 0 accumulation in the current lateral move shows all buying (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume). Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength is making the breakout move. Solid, having set up well after its August split.
Volume: 855.065K Avg Volume: 544.033K
BUY POINT: $41.55 Volume=800K Target=$47.95 Stop=$39.89
POSITION: JDQ EH - May $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dade.html
Play Date: 02/06/2006
TRID (Trident Microsystems--$25.05; +0.13; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trid.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Nice doji Wednesday, tapping the 18 day EMA (24.16) on the low and rebounding to hold the 10 day EMA on the close. Low volume as it tests, making the last shakeout after the strong break higher in January. Looks ready to resume the move. To recap: TRID is making the second test of the December breakout from a 16 week flat base. Strong rally using the 18 day EMA as support. Strong move the last week of January sent TRID higher and now it is testing that move, tapping at the 18 day EMA on the Monday intraday low and rebounding for a solid gain. Volume did not rally with it on that move, but we anticipate it will be there as it continues. Strong money flow moving higher ahead of the price. Relative strength broke out on the price move, a good sign of a strong stock. Strong fundamental growth to go along with the price pattern. Ready to move in on a continued move through the buy point that shows a jump in volume.
Volume: 925.255K Avg Volume: 2.003M
BUY POINT: New: $25.85 (orig. $26.05) Volume=2.5M Target=$31.25 Stop=$24.35
POSITION: HVU GE - July $25c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trid.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://stocksplits.net/ssr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AMMD 02/04 Cup hdl 21.6 -0.02 22.95 27.55 360K 957K 21.27
Buy Not Hit.
ATW 01/26 PreAnn 93.82 +0.7 98.11 110.35 381K 546K 97.48
Current.
BIO 01/28 PreAnn 66.38 +0.7 68.48 78.85 20K 115K 65.88
Buy Not Hit.
BOOM 12/21 FlyPlat 29.56 -2.74 32.23 38.62 2.6M 2.1M 35.68
Exited.
BOOM 11/30 Test 50 29.56 -2.74 24.75 29.75 2.6M 2.1M 35.68
Exited.
CELG 01/17 PreSplt 69.27 +0.18 68.55 78.85 1.2M 3.2M 68.45
CELL 01/17 Cup hdl 25.13 +3.79 20.83 24.94 2.6M 1.3M 32.75
Target Hit.
CHRW 01/31 DB hdl 42.01 +1.3 42.03 49.98 1.5M 1.4M 39.95
Entered today. Gapped up at the open for a great move filling the gap intraday on strong volume surge.
CHS 01/30 Flat 44.91 +1.11 44.75 52.95 1.9M 2.9M 42.84
Buy Not Issued. Moving up after testing the 50 day MVA on rising, but only average volume. Volume not there to enter the play.
CNI 02/07 PreSplt 90.47 +1.06 90.45 101.95 518K 800K 88.21
Entered today. Tapped 88.59 at the intraday low and rallied back on average volume. Ready to continue to move up after testing the 10 day MVA.
CRDN 12/19 Test 50 54.57 -4.16 46.47 53.95 3.1M 1.1M 56.55
Trailing Stop.
CTSH 01/07 PreAnn 50.15 -1.62 52.15 59.98 2M 2M 51.05
Current.
CVH 02/01 Asc Tri 58.94 -0.68 61.57 70.95 1.1M 1.3M 59.95
Buy Not Hit. Gapped down at the open and made a fierce rally back showing a doji just under the 18 day MVA on average volume. Still in the pattern, but needs to hold here.
DADE 02/07 Test 50 41.19 +0.19 41.55 47.95 855K 800K 39.89
Buy Not Hit. Tested the simple 50 day MVA intraday and rallied back on strong volume. Looking good.
DBRN 02/07 PreAnn 43.83 -1.44 45.88 52.95 645K 1.1M 43.88
Buy Not Hit.
DBRN 01/21 PreAnn 43.83 -1.44 42.72 49.55 645K 1.1M 43.88
Current.
DIOD 01/26 Test 18 37.32 +0.97 35.65 41.85 549K 518K 35
Current.
DRI 12/29 PreAnn 41.94 +0.73 40.35 46.48 1.6M 1.3M 40.89
Current.
DTAS 01/23 Test 50 13.48 +0.16 13.91 16.77 568K 1.2M 12.82
Current. Moving up on low volume after testing the 50 day MVA.
DVA 01/24 PreAnn 55.2 -0.03 56.21 64.75 443K 816K 55.98
Current.
ESRX 01/27 Flat 91.36 +0.81 92.24 103.45 1.4M 3.3M 88.65
Current.
FFIV 02/04 Cup hdl 63.34 +0.75 64.45 76.95 672K 1.7M 62.65
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 61.59 at the intraday low and rallied back holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still forming the handle.
FTO 01/12 PreAnn 42.79 -0.62 46.18 54.55 1.3M 2M 43.91
Current.
GIL 01/21 PreAnn 49.58 -0.47 45.95 53.85 116K 207K 48.32
GILD 01/04 PreAnn 59.38 -0.96 56.58 66.95 3.9M 7.2M 59
Current. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday on rising, but average volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to 18 day MVA (59)
GVA 01/28 PreAnn 42.6 +0.09 40.85 48.88 561K 337K 39.22
Buy Not Issued.
HOC 01/26 PreAnn 66.27 -0.43 70.32 82 302K 350K 71
Will let it pullback to 50 day MVA (65) and rebound.
HOLX 12/19 DB hdl 50.88 -0.05 39.33 45.85 398K 1.2M 49.89
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on low volume. Meeting some resistance at 52.25.
HRS 02/02 Flat 46.93 -0.26 47.91 55.35 487K 900K 46.21
Current.
IMGC 02/02 PreSplt 44.7 +1.21 42.37 49.95 499K 450K 42.88
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
JEC 12/10 PreAnn 83 +0.39 66.75 75.95 512K 610K 80.55
KWK 01/19 Cup hdl 46.89 +0.62 46.88 55 1.5M 1.6M 48.35
Current.
LCAV 12/15 PreAnn 53.89 -0.54 50.28 61.32 520K 1M 54.21
Current.
LM 01/26 PreAnn 131.2 +1.21 132.95 149.95 800K 1.4M 129.21
Buy Not Issued.
LUFK 02/04 PreAnn 60.8 -3 66.57 79.38 489K 359K 64.65
Current.
MATR 12/13 PreAnn 42.1 +0.19 41.36 46.98 80K 392K 41.25
Current.
MRVL 02/01 PreAnn 67.75 +0.81 67.28 78 3.8M 6.1M 66.38
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a tight doji on below average volume. Filled in the gap nicely. Looking ready to move back up from here.
MRVL 01/14 PreAnn 67.75 +0.81 66.04 76.75 3.8M 6.1M 68.22
Current.
MRVL 01/03 PreAnn 67.75 +0.81 58.97 66.95 3.8M 4.5M 68.22
Current.
MSCC 01/05 Test BO 30.86 -0.32 29.14 33.95 807K 900K 29.75
Current. Pullback tapping 35.54 at the intraday low and rallied back holding the 10 day MVA on rising, but average volume. Meeting some resistance at 31.
NIHD 01/12 Test 18 48.71 +1.07 47.21 55.95 991K 2.1M 48.44
Current. Moving up on rising volume after testing the 18 day MVA.
NOV 01/05 PreAnn 68.13 -1.5 69.37 79.45 3.5M 3M 74.38
Current.
NVDA 02/06 Test 18 44.91 +1.26 45.78 53.95 3.3M 6.1M 43.65
Buy Not Hit.
PNRA 02/04 PreAnn 71.74 +0.5 71.72 82.55 302K 801K 68.55
Buy Not Issued. Volume not there to enter the play. If stock makes the breakaway move on strong volume will still be a buy.
PPDI 01/19 PreAnn 68.83 +0.28 64.88 74.65 624K 561K 67.35
PSYS 01/24 Test BO 32 +0.03 33.22 38.95 525K 800K 31.77
Buy Not Issued.
QLGC 02/07 PreSplt 40.42 +0.96 40.25 46.35 1.9M 2.2M 38.89
Buy Not Issued. Volume not there to enter the play. If stock continues the move on strong volume will still be a buy.
QSII 02/07 PreSplt 86.9 -1.32 89.25 99.95 227K 335K 86.38
Buy Not Hit.
RJF 01/21 PreAnn 43.86 +0.86 40.15 45.57 337K 427K 42.28
Current.
SLAB 02/04 Test BO 48.36 -0.48 50.12 59.95 847K 1.6M 47.68
Buy Not Hit.
SLB 02/02 PreSplt 119.22 +1.72 124.22 136 8.8M 8.6M 119.85
Current. Bounced on stronger above average volume to hold the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Should be ready to rebound.
SLB 01/26 PreSplt 119.22 +1.72 127.11 137 8.8M 7M 128.25
Current.
SNDK 01/14 Test BO 64.56 +2.24 73.72 89.45 7.4M 21M 71.55
Current. Moving up on low volume after testing the simple 50 day MVA. Meeting some resistance at 65 (10 day MVA)
SNDK 12/20 DB hdl 64.56 +2.24 60.69 72.38 7.4M 20M 71.55
Current.
SRZ 01/23 Cup 34.73 -0.88 36.25 41.95 290K 565K 34.98
Buy Not Issued. The stock has not performed so will drop.
STT 01/25 Asc Bse 60.19 +0.29 61.11 70.32 1.4M 1.6M 58.48
Current. Tapped 59.69 at the intraday low and rallied back on low volume. Meeting some resistance at 60.46
SU 02/04 PreAnn 76.71 +0.89 80.98 95 3.8M 3M 77.55
Current.
SU 01/03 PreAnn 76.71 +0.89 64.88 73.95 3.8M 3.5M 78
Current.
TKC 01/28 Test BO 17.41 +0.36 16.89 20.98 170K 630K 16.11
Buy Not Issued.
TRID 02/06 Test 18 25.05 +0.13 26.05 31.25 925K 2.5M 24.35
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern. Looks ready to rebound from here.
TRID 01/24 Test BO 25.05 +0.13 22.88 27 925K 2.2M 24.25
UPL 01/26 PreAnn 64.2 +0.5 66.65 76.65 2.3M 2M 64.78
Buy Not Issued.
UPL 01/03 PreAnn 64.2 +0.5 58.57 69.95 2.3M 3M 67.11
VIVO 01/19 Test BO 23.35 +0.38 25.74 30.35 244K 400K 24.02
Current. Moving up on rising volume after testing the 50 day MVA. Looking for stock to continue to rebound. Meeting some resistance at 24 (10 day MVA)
VSEA 02/02 PreSplt 52.93 +0.97 51.35 58.78 733K 1.4M 49.89
Buy Not Issued. Volume not there to enter the play. Will let pullback.
WFT 01/25 Test BO 43.29 +0.94 43.25 49.95 4.8M 5.5M 43.39
Current. Nice move up to hold the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Moving up after testing the 18 day MVA.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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