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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: CNI; CTSH; HRS; MRVL
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/09/2006
JOSB (Joseph A. Banks--$52.70; -0.78; optionable): Apparel stores. Splits 5:4 on 2-16-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/josb.html
After Hours: $52.63
STATUS: Breakout test. JOSB gapped out of a 9 week cup with handle base in early February on news of strong January sales. It has come back to test that gap higher, reaching down intraday Thursday to fill most of it and then rebounding to close on near support at the 10 day EMA (52.70). Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying. Nice volume breakout to a new all-time high and an orderly test of that move. Waiting for it to complete this pullback and rebound on solid trade. Not expecting it to fall much further though it may make another intraday test to fill a bit more of that gap.
Volume: 547.155K Avg Volume: 463.024K
BUY POINT: $53.55 Volume=695K Target=$61.75 Stop=$51.85
POSITION: QZS GK - July $55c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/josb.html
Downside play:
Play Date: 02/09/2006
FOXH (Foxhollow Technologies--$28.02; +0.54; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/foxh.html
After Hours: $28.03
STATUS: Put. FOXH broke down in December, gapping below the 50 day EMA (now at 32.96) as it fell out of a 19 week flat base. It is making its second attempt to test the move, rising up through the 18 day EMA (28.92) last week but failing. It tried to hold that level but is slipping lower as money flow falls as well. Looking for volume to jump once more to send it lower on its next leg down in this trend. A move to the target lands us a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 377.638K Avg Volume: 759.43K
BUY POINT: $27.85 Volume=765K Target=$24.75 Stop=$28.55
POSITION: FJQ OF - Mar. $30p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/foxh.html
Leader Plays: These stocks could turn into pre-announcement plays. The patterns are solid as are the stocks, and they can make us money as they breakout from these bases.
Play Date: 02/04/2006
SLAB (Silicon Labs--$48.37; +0.01; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slab.html
After Hours: $48.40
STATUS: Breakout test. Surged early to 50.40 but volume remained below average and SLAB could not hold the gain. Still very solid, showing a hammer doji as it sits on the 10 day EMA (48.13), refusing to give up its gains. To recap: SLAB gapped higher the fourth week of January on a strong earnings report, breaking out from a two year cup with handle pattern. It came back to test the 10 day EMA, setting up for the next move as it holds onto almost all of its gains. Strong stock in a strong sector. Looking to start the play on a continued volume move higher as SLAB follows the strong money flow higher. Relative strength broke out on the move, a good corroboration of the stock move.
Volume: 1.04M Avg Volume: 1.181M
BUY POINT: $50.12 Volume=1.6M Target=$59.95 Stop=$47.68
POSITION: QFJ GJ - July $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slab.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Lots of stocks still in position for split announcements. We have some good information on many though some are wild cards, i.e. no split history but hearing word of a possible split announcement. All are good leadership quality stocks that can make us money if they show us the breakout moves.
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AAPL: Forecast 2-10-06. Selling harder again.
ACI: Forecast 2-10-06. Unable to hold the 50 day EMA as the selling accelerates
BIO: Forecast 2-16-06
CNQ: Forecast 2-23-06
CTSH: No split announced but CTSH shot higher on strong results.
DAKT: Forecast 2-15-06
DBRN: Researching next date; still looking for the date but performing well.
DRI: Forecast third week in March.
DVN: Forecast 2-15-06
FTO: Forecast mid-April
HOC: Forecast 2-13-06
GILD: Broke through the 18 day EMA so took the gain off the table.
GVA: Forecast 2-15-06
JEC: Forecast 2-7-06. No word on a split but strong volume as it continues higher up the 10 day EMA.
LCAV: Researching next potential date as no announcement 1-24-06.
LUFK: Tentatively forecast in March
MRVL: Forecast 2-23-06. Testing the gap higher
NOV: Forecast 2-24-06
ODP: Forecast 2-23-06
PNRA: Forecast 2-9-06 after the close. Moving higher after hours.
PPDI: Forecast 2-8-06 after the close. Announced the split but had a tough session.
PTEN: Forecast 3-16-06
RJF: Forecast 2-9-06. No word on a split today.
SNDK: No split announced 1-26-06 after the close.
SU: Researching next date. Slipped through the 18 day EMA
TLM: Forecast 3-1-06
UPL: Forecast 2-8-06. No split on Thursday.
XTO: Forecast 2-15-06. Diving lower.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 02/09/2006
ITG (Investment Technology--$44.81; +1.86; optionable): Investment brokerage. Researching the date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 11-13-2001 at $64.80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itg.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Just announced earnings so this is a wildcard, but it is in great shape. ITG jumped higher to start the month on strong volume and a strong earnings report. That tried to break it out of its 9 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (40.36) as support. After a test back to the 18 day EMA (43.19) to consolidate some, it jumped higher Thursday on a very strong shot of volume. Positive accumulation and surging money flow are a great complement. Relative strength is making the breakout as it starts back up, a very good sign for the move to continue. Solid.
Volume: 981.7K Avg Volume: 514.133K
BUY POINT: $45.25 Volume=700K Target=$53.95 Stop=$43.15
POSITION: ITG GI - July $45c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/itg.html
Play Date: 02/09/2006
RARE (Rare Hospitality--$32.34; +0.84; no options): Restaurants. Researching to pinpoint a date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 7-23-03 at $35.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rare.html
After Hours: $32.29
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. RARE is trying to make the breakout from an 11 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (29.61) as support. This is part of a larger year long reverse head and shoulders base. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the shorter base shows plenty of buying to set up the breakout. Looking solid in a rollover market Thursday. Want to see solid volume continues as RARE continues higher through the buy point.
Volume: 410.298K Avg Volume: 267.129K
BUY POINT: $32.65 Volume=401K Target=$37.65 Stop=$31.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rare.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays ready to move
Play Date: 02/07/2006
DBRN (Dress Barn--$43.99; +0.16; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast late February.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-2-02 at $31
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dbrn.html
After Hours: $44
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Still the nice test of the 18 day EMA (43.48) is underway, showing a nice tight doji Thursday at that near support. Very orderly test; just needs volume on the rebound. To recap: DBRN broke out in late November from a 16 week base and has rallied up the 10 and 18 day EMA. It is making its third test of the 10 and 18 day EMA, easing back to that level the past week on very low volume after a strong rally to close out January. A strong stock such as DBRN will make four to five runs off the 10 or 18 day EMA after a breakout before it needs a test. This stock is ignoring the market, going about its test and showing very little selling. Strong money flow continues higher and relative strength is ready to make a breakout once more as well. Very strong.
Volume: 481.656K Avg Volume: 793.077K
BUY POINT: $45.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$52.95 Stop=$43.88
POSITION: DTQ FI - June $45c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dbrn.html
Play Date: 02/06/2006
NVDA (Nvidia--$44.15; -0.76; optionable): Semiconductors. Potential split in March. Trying to pinpoint the date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split back in its prior heyday before its 2002 peak. Announced a 2:1 split on 8-14-200 at $85.90. Prior to that a 2:1 split at $94 on 5-16-00.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
After Hours: $44.39
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Sold back to the 18 day EMA (43.88) on slightly rising average volume. Still holding up very well as it moves laterally, consolidating its January run. Being patient and letting it show us the break to the upside that resumes its strong uptrend. To recap: NVDA broke out from a 12 week ascending base in early January, and has rallied up the 18 day EMA, using that near support level to rebound. This is exactly the action you want to see as a stock breaks out and trends higher. In the recent selling NVDA has come back to test the 18 day for the second time. Strong money flow continues higher, leading the way for the stock. Relative strength broke out and is ready to do it once more after this pullback. Ready to move in on a continued move higher through the buy point on strong trade.
Volume: 3.642M Avg Volume: 4.052M
BUY POINT: $45.78 Volume=6.1M Target=$53.95 Stop=$43.65
POSITION: UVA FI - June $45c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nvda.html
Play Date: 02/08/2006
ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch--$69.47; +0.42; optionable): Apparel stores
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-11-99 at $95.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anf.html
After Hours: $68.98
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continuing its low volume lateral move above the 10 day EMA (67.94) as ANF continues to form its handle. Just being patient as it rides through this market chop. To recap: ANF is easing back the past week, tapping at the 10 day EMA and rebounding to post modest gains. Solid 7.5 month base has formed, setting up the breakout to a new all-time high. Strong 11 to 6 accumulation shows net buying in the consolidation; that accumulation will be the foundation for the breakout and run higher. Solid fundamentals to go with the strong technical pattern. Looking for a return of volume as ANF continues higher.
Volume: 1.013M Avg Volume: 2.229M
BUY POINT: $70.65 Volume=3.4M Target=$81.95 Stop=$67.45
POSITION: ANF EN - May $70c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anf.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/07/2006
QLGC (Qlogic--$41.11; +0.69; optionable): I/O products, switches, semiconductors. Splits 2:1 on 3-3-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
After Hours: $41.08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher Thursday and rallied to 41.86 but faded as the market sold in the afternoon. Solid trade; if it can hold here & start back up we are looking at positions. To recap: QLGC has formed a big 12 month base and is now moving laterally over the 10 day EMA (39.44) on low volume, shaking out the profit takers from the last run higher. May take a few more sessions to get ready and set up the breakout move. Strong money flow is leading and relative strength is solid.
Volume: 2.505M Avg Volume: 1.761M
BUY POINT: New: $41.29 (orig. $40.25) Volume=2.2M Target=$46.35 Stop=$38.89
POSITION: QLC GH - July $40c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qlgc.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/07/2006
DADE (Dade Behring Holdings--$40.65; -0.54; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dade.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Sold back to the 10 day EMA (40.36) on lower, average volume Thursday, still holding its pattern in the market turnover. Looking for DADE to hold near this level and then move toward the breakout from its solid pattern. To recap: DADE broke out from a 14 week base in early November and rallied to 41. It has worked laterally the past 8 weeks, coming back to test the 50 day EMA (40.43), holding, then starting higher this month on rising volume. Stronger trade Tuesday as it bounced up off the 50 day. Strong 4 to 0 accumulation in the current lateral move shows all buying (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume). Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength is making the breakout move. Solid, having set up well after its August split.
Volume: 593.549K Avg Volume: 553.908K
BUY POINT: $41.55 Volume=800K Target=$47.95 Stop=$39.89
POSITION: JDQ EH - May $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dade.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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