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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/11/2006
AMX (America Movil--$33.61; -0.04; optionable): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
STATUS: Ascending base. AMX is making at test of near support at the 18 day EMA (33.16) as it makes a higher low and sets up its next break higher. Rising 6 week pattern has formed after AMX tested the 50 day EMA (31.56) to end December. That test has set up the next run higher. Solid fundamentals to go with the pattern. Big volume spike Wednesday after reporting strong earnings on a lower tax rate. It could not hold its surge up to 36.88 that session, but it is a solid market leader that held its support as the market struggled. Looking for AMX to show us a high volume upside move to start the play.
Volume: 2.642M Avg Volume: 3.738M
BUY POINT: $34.38 Volume=5.6M Target=$39.95 Stop=$32.95
POSITION: AMX HG - Aug. $35c (49 delta) or AMX EF - May $30c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amx.html
Play Date: 02/11/2006
COH (Coach--$35.47; -0.15; optionable): Handbags, accessories
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
After Hours: $35.55
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. COH has formed an 11 week base over the 200 day SMA (32.96) as part of a larger 7.5 month ascending triangle base. Solid accumulation in the current pattern, showing net buyers and setting up the breakout. COH has formed a nice handle to the base the past week, using the market selling to make a low volume pullback to test and hold near support at the 18 day EMA (35.30). Nice money flow to go along with the accumulation. Ready to move to a new all-time high after this handle completes. The doji Friday suggests it may be ready.
Volume: 1.658M Avg Volume: 2.715M
BUY POINT: $36.88 Volume=4.1M Target=$42.95 Stop=$35.15
POSITION: COH EG - May $35c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Downside play:
Play Date: 02/11/2006
BAC (Bank of America--$43.92; +0.09; optionable): Big bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bac.html
After Hours: $44.10
STATUS: Downside test of 18 day EMA. BAC formed a top from November to early January, unable to break through the ceiling. No volume as it tried to move higher, showing no buyers to push it. It failed and has tumbled lower, using the 10 and 18 day EMA (43.87, 44.23) as resistance. If fell through the 200 day SMA (44.70) in late January and failed at a test at that level. It has rebounded to test the 10 day EMA and 18 day EMA the past week on low volume, struggling at 44. Looking to move in as it rolls back down and follows its diving money flow. A move to the target lands us a 55%ish gain.
Volume: 9.039M Avg Volume: 13.367M
BUY POINT: $43.75 Volume=14M Target=$42 Stop=$44.21
POSITION: BAC OI - Mar. $45p (-59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bac.html
Play Date: 02/11/2006
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$126.64; +0.23; optionable): SP500 ETF
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spy.html
After Hours: $126.57
STATUS: Head and shoulders. SPY is working on the right shoulder to a 2-headed reverse head and shoulders pattern that has formed over the past 11 weeks. SPY is struggling at the 50 day EMA (126.46) as money flow heads lower ahead of the price. If SPY makes the break lower as the market contiues its selling. A move to the target makes us around 40%.
Volume: 64.51M Avg Volume: 57.177M
BUY POINT: $126.22 Volume=65M Target=$124.45 Stop=$126.97
POSITION: SPY OW - Mar. $127p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/spy.html
Play Date: 02/09/2006
FOXH (Foxhollow Technologies--$27.95; -0.07; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/foxh.html
STATUS: Put. FOXH continues to struggle at resistance below the 10 and 18 day EMA (28.30, 28.82) on low volume, showing a doji on the candlestick chart Friday. Still looks ready to fall and continue its downtrend. To recap: FOXH broke down in December, gapping below the 50 day EMA (now at 32.76) as it fell out of a 19 week flat base. It is making its second attempt to test the move, rising up through the 18 day EMA last week but failing. It tried to hold that level but is slipping lower as money flow falls as well. Looking for volume to jump once more to send it lower on its next leg down in this trend. A move to the target lands us a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 208.452K Avg Volume: 761.097K
BUY POINT: $27.85 Volume=765K Target=$24.75 Stop=$28.55
POSITION: FJQ OF - Mar. $30p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/foxh.html
Leader Plays: These stocks could turn into pre-announcement plays. The patterns are solid as are the stocks, and they can make us money as they breakout from these bases.
Play Date: 02/11/2006
GME (Gamestop--$40.48; +0.02; optionable): Electronic games stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
STATUS: Breakout test. GME is another market leader. It broke higher in January out of a 7 month base that formed after a strong run the first half of 2005. This base has allowed it to consolidate that move and set up for the next run. The mid-January breakout took GME to 43.50 on the run and then it made a nice, orderly and low volume pullback to test that move last week, holding the 18 day EMA (40.12) Friday, showing a doji on the session. In short, it used the selling to test the move, but there was no dumping the stock as volume was quite low. Strong money flow continues to lead higher. Relative strength broke out on the move, a very bullish indication. Looking for a bounce off this near support on a good return of volume to enter the play.
Volume: 835K Avg Volume: 1.722M
BUY POINT: $41.11 Volume=2M Target=$48.95 Stop=$39.89
POSITION: GME GH - July $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gme.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Lots of stocks still in position for split announcements. We have some good information on many though some are wild cards, i.e. no split history but hearing word of a possible split announcement. All are good leadership quality stocks that can make us money if they show us the breakout moves.
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AAPL: No split announced last week as AAPL continued its selling. Trying to hold some support at 65 to set up a new base. Researching for a new date as we wait for this to begin.
BIO: Forecast 2-16-06
CNQ: Forecast 2-23-06
CTSH: No split last week but surged. Researching the next possible date but enjoying the gains.
DAKT: Forecast 2-15-06
DBRN: Researching next date; still looking for the date but performing well.
DRI: Forecast third week in March.
DVN: Forecast 2-15-06
FTO: Forecast mid-April
HOC: Forecast 2-13-06. Struggling to hold the 50 day EMA.
GVA: Forecast 2-15-06
ITG: Researching the date.
JEC: No split announced last week but just letting it consolidate the gain while it moves laterally.
LUFK: Tentatively forecast in March
MRVL: Forecast 2-23-06. Testing the gap higher
NOV: Forecast 2-24-06
ODP: Forecast 2-23-06
PNRA: No split announced last week but a gap higher Friday on some strong volume and very volatile price action.
PTEN: Forecast 3-16-06
RARE: Researching to pinpoint the date.
RJF: No split last week but continuing its move up the 10 day EMA. Researching the next date.
TLM: Forecast 3-1-06
XTO: Forecast 2-15-06. Not looking good at all.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 02/11/2006
POOL (SCP Pool--$39.73; +0.53; optionable): Swimming pool accessories. Researching to pinpoint a date.
BACKGROUND: A frequent splitter, announcing six splits in the past 8 years. Last announced a 3:2 split 8-6-04 at $39.90. Prior to that it announced a 3:2 split on 8-8-03 at $37.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pool.html
After Hours: $39.64
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Nice 13 week accumulation base has formed that tapped the 200 day SMA (36.20) on the very bottom of the pattern for one session and then started right back up. Strong money flow is leading higher. Last week POOL started higher off the test of the 50 day EMA (38.23), bucking the market trend. Like that it is minding its own business as the market struggled. Good volume Thursday, and we need to see more as it continues higher through the buy point.
Volume: 125.526K Avg Volume: 219.878K
BUY POINT: $40.12 Volume=285K Target=$48 Stop=$38.77
POSITION: QCL GH - July $40c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pool.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays ready to move
Play Date: 02/07/2006
DBRN (Dress Barn--$43.83; -0.16; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast late February.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-2-02 at $31
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dbrn.html
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Excellent doji Friday at the 18 day EMA (43.51) on low volume as DBRN sold with the market last week, but it was simply an ordinary test for DBRN. Very nice and looking to move in for more positions as it continues higher off this near support. To recap: DBRN broke out in late November from a 16 week base and has rallied up the 10 and 18 day EMA. It is making its third test of the 10 and 18 day EMA, easing back to that level the past week on very low volume after a strong rally to close out January. A strong stock such as DBRN will make four to five runs off the 10 or 18 day EMA after a breakout before it needs a test. This stock is ignoring the market, going about its test and showing very little selling. Strong money flow continues higher and relative strength is ready to make a breakout once more as well. Very strong.
Volume: 297.543K Avg Volume: 790.681K
BUY POINT: $45.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$52.95 Stop=$43.88
POSITION: DTQ FI - June $45c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dbrn.html
Play Date: 02/09/2006
ITG (Investment Technology--$44.57; -0.24; optionable): Investment brokerage. Researching the date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 11-13-2001 at $64.80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itg.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Nice low volume hold of the 10 day EMA (44.03) Friday after a stronger volume bounce off the 18 day EMA (43.34) Thursday. Very solid and ready to make the next move to break it out. To recap: Just announced earnings so this is a wildcard, but it is in great shape. ITG jumped higher to start the month on strong volume and a strong earnings report. That tried to break it out of its 9 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (40.52) as support. After a test back to the 18 day EMA to consolidate some, it jumped higher Thursday on a very strong shot of volume. Positive accumulation and surging money flow are a great complement. Relative strength is making the breakout as it starts back up, a very good sign for the move to continue. Solid.
Volume: 371.3K Avg Volume: 503.905K
BUY POINT: $45.25 Volume=700K Target=$53.95 Stop=$43.15
POSITION: ITG GI - July $45c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/itg.html
Play Date: 02/09/2006
RARE (Rare Hospitality--$32.56; +0.22; no options): Restaurants. Researching to pinpoint a date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 7-23-03 at $35.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rare.html
After Hours: $32.43
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong volume Friday as RARE tapped the 10 day EMA (31.79) on the low and rebounded for a gain. It is heading for the breakout and we are ready to move in as it continues. To recap: RARE is trying to make the breakout from an 11 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (29.62) as support. This is part of a larger year long reverse head and shoulders base. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the shorter base shows plenty of buying to set up the breakout. Looking solid in a rollover market Thursday. Want to see solid volume continues as RARE continues higher through the buy point.
Volume: 557.682K Avg Volume: 272.435K
BUY POINT: $32.65 Volume=401K Target=$37.65 Stop=$31.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rare.html
Play Date: 02/08/2006
ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch--$68.76; -0.71; optionable): Apparel stores
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-11-99 at $95.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anf.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice test back to the 10 day EMA (68.09) Friday as volume shot higher toward average. This holds the strong move higher to start the month and the volume shows it may be ready to give us the breakout now. Solid. To recap: ANF eased back the past week, tapping at the 10 day EMA and rebounding to post modest gains. Solid 7.5 month base has formed, setting up the breakout to a new all-time high. Strong 11 to 6 accumulation shows net buying in the consolidation; that accumulation will be the foundation for the breakout and run higher. Solid fundamentals to go with the strong technical pattern. Looking for a return of volume as ANF continues higher.
Volume: 2.007M Avg Volume: 2.224M
BUY POINT: $70.65 Volume=3.4M Target=$81.95 Stop=$67.45
POSITION: ANF EN - May $70c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anf.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/02/2006
VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$52.26; -0.52; optionable): Chip equipment. Splits 3:2 on 3-1-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. VSEA reached down to the 18 day EMA (50.63) Friday and rebounded well to easily hold the 10 day EMA (51.56) on the close. Broke out in early January and has rallied up the 18 day EMA. Looking for VSEA to continue its run after this modest test, but we might see it pullback toward the 10 or 18 day EMA before it starts higher again.
Volume: 749.897K Avg Volume: 763.803K
BUY POINT: $52.75 Volume=1.4M Target=$59.65 Stop=$50.39
POSITION: UES EJ - May $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vsea.html
Play Date: 02/09/2006
JOSB (Joseph A. Banks--$52.78; +0.08; optionable): Apparel stores. Splits 5:4 on 2-16-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/josb.html
STATUS: Breakout test. JOSB has now filled the gap from early February, showing a loose doji on Friday on lower, below average volume. It is now set up to continue the breakout move. To recap: JOSB gapped out of a 9 week cup with handle base in early February on news of strong January sales. It has come back to test, filling the gap higher. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying. Nice volume breakout to a new all-time high and an orderly test of that move. Waiting for it to complete this pullback and rebound on solid trade. Not expecting it to fall much further though it may make another intraday test to fill a bit more of that gap.
Volume: 379.986K Avg Volume: 466.587K
BUY POINT: $53.55 Volume=695K Target=$61.75 Stop=$51.85
POSITION: QZS GK - July $55c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/josb.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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