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world stock market, us stock market
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: LRCX; RATE
Thursday night play results:
PARL: Not bad action and still ready to make the move.
TYC: Testing the 10 day EMA on low volume, ready to resume the downside move.
EMAG: Big reach lower on low volume and then a recovery back into the lateral range.
KNOT: Gapped higher on volume, not giving us an opening.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/11/2006
CNQR (Concur Technologies--$16.19; -0.51; optionable): Automated corporate expense management software.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnqr.html
After Hours: $16.19
STATUS: Flying plateau. Moving laterally the past two weeks, consolidating the January breakout and run higher. It gapped up at the end of January and then came back to fill the gap as it consolidated and moved laterally. Very low volume last week as it worked along 16 on the lows. Strong money flow helped lead higher and is still strong. Solid fundamentals. Nice rest after breaking out from a 16 week flat base and moving to a 6 year high. Likely to test a couple more sessions at 16 and maybe the 18 day EMA (15.89) before it is ready, but it is getting close.
Volume: 179.369K Avg Volume: 313.405K
BUY POINT: $16.88 Volume=415K Target=$20.38 Stop=$15.88
POSITION: JCQ HC - Aug. $15c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cnqr.html
Play Date: 02/11/2006
COH (Coach--$35.47; -0.15; optionable): Handbags, accessories
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
After Hours: $35.55
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. COH has formed an 11 week base over the 200 day SMA (32.96) as part of a larger 7.5 month ascending triangle base. Solid accumulation in the current pattern, showing net buyers and setting up the breakout. COH has formed a nice handle to the base the past week, using the market selling to make a low volume pullback to test and hold near support at the 18 day EMA (35.30). Nice money flow to go along with the accumulation. Ready to move to a new all-time high after this handle completes. The doji Friday suggests it may be ready.
Volume: 1.658M Avg Volume: 2.715M
BUY POINT: $36.88 Volume=4.1M Target=$42.95 Stop=$35.15
POSITION: COH EG - May $35c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/coh.html
Play Date: 02/11/2006
GME (Gamestop--$40.48; +0.02; optionable): Electronic games stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
STATUS: Breakout test. GME is another market leader. It broke higher in January out of a 7 month base that formed after a strong run the first half of 2005. This base has allowed it to consolidate that move and set up for the next run. The mid-January breakout took GME to 43.50 on the run and then it made a nice, orderly and low volume pullback to test that move last week, holding the 18 day EMA (40.12) Friday, showing a doji on the session. In short, it used the selling to test the move, but there was no dumping the stock as volume was quite low. Strong money flow continues to lead higher. Relative strength broke out on the move, a very bullish indication. Looking for a bounce off this near support on a good return of volume to enter the play.
Volume: 835K Avg Volume: 1.722M
BUY POINT: $41.11 Volume=2M Target=$48.95 Stop=$39.89
POSITION: GME GH - July $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gme.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/11/2006
EPIC (Epicor Software--$12.37; -0.03; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/epic.html
After Hours: $12.37
STATUS: Downside test of the 10 day EMA. EPIC gapped sharply lower to start February. It had faded back to the 200 day SMA (13.10) in a 10 week head and shoulders pattern. The gap was on huge volume and then EPIC recovered this month on lower and lower volume. It stalled out at the 10 day EMA (12.53) last week and with the poor money flow we anticipate EPIC heading back down this week. A move to the target lands us a 55%ish gain.
Volume: 668.197K Avg Volume: 480.006K
BUY POINT: $12.25 Volume=675K Target=$11.24 Stop=$12.57
POSITION: EUE OV - Mar. $12.50p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/epic.html
Play Date: 02/11/2006
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$126.64; +0.23; optionable): SP500 ETF
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spy.html
After Hours: $126.57
STATUS: Head and shoulders. SPY is working on the right shoulder to a 2-headed reverse head and shoulders pattern that has formed over the past 11 weeks. SPY is struggling at the 50 day EMA (126.46) as money flow heads lower ahead of the price. If SPY makes the break lower as the market contiues its selling. A move to the target makes us around 40%.
Volume: 64.51M Avg Volume: 57.177M
BUY POINT: $126.22 Volume=65M Target=$124.45 Stop=$126.97
POSITION: SPY OW - Mar. $127p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/spy.html
Continuing plays ready to move:
Play Date: 02/08/2006
PSSI (PSS World Medical--$17.18; +0.02; optionable): Medical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pssi.html
After Hours: $17.16
STATUS: Nice reach lower Friday below the 18 day EMA (17.07) and then a furious recovery to hold that support on the close. Volume edged up toward average as it made this shakeout move. Strong pattern and ready to continue the move. Strong money flow is leading higher, complementing the solid 3 to 1 accumulation. Nice.
Volume: 405.617K Avg Volume: 522.335K
BUY POINT: $17.89 Volume=781K Target=$21.47 Stop=$16.95
POSITION: QYP EW - May $17.50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/pssi.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/09/2006
TYC (Tyco Intl.--$25.46; +0.07; optionable): Conglomerates
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tyc.html
After Hours: $25.50
STATUS: Downside test of 10 day EMA. Very low volume test of the 10 day EMA (25.59) Friday as TYC continues to stall at that level ahead of its next turn lower. To recap: Crashed through the 200 day SMA (28.46) in January and this is the second test of the 10 day EMA after that crash lower. Stocks tend to us the 10 and 18 day EMA as resistance when the trend lower after a breakdown and TYC looks to be using the 10 day EMA. Looks ripe for the fall.
Volume: 5.837M Avg Volume: 13.519M
BUY POINT: $24.94 Volume=14M Target=$23.91 Stop=$25.32
POSITION: TYC OE - Mar. $25p (-38 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tyc.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, CELG, BR, COH, NVDA, PSYS, RTSX, STN, UNH
AAPL: Generated some volume as AAPL rebounded at support at 65 after undercutting that level intraday. Some life here that could take it back up to 70.
NVDA: Reached below the 18 day EMA intraday and recovered on average volume. Trying to hang on here.
RTSX: The move last week was a head fake and RTSX imploded through the 200 day SMA. Very poor action.
UNH: Still trending lower below the 10 and 18 day EMA.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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