stock watch, stock split

Begin Part 4 of 4

CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.

Watchlist:

AZO ($66.88; +2.32): AZO has made quite a run since the re-open, but is still too extended to consider additional positions. After we see a stable pullback and consolidation over support (10 day at 63.26) we will look at new positions.

FLIR ($45.25; +0.29): The consolidation over support continues. Volume increased slightly to 184,700 (average 302,700) as FLIR closed with a doji, again over support at the 18 day. The aggressive upside play remains a strong move back up over 47.50 on volume of 400,000 with stock and/or January $45 calls to buy (FFQ AI - low open interest).

RMD ($57.20; +0.40): RMD again held the 18 day MVA (56.71) but could not clear the 10 day (57.40) despite the slightly higher volume of 255,700 (average 252,000). The aggressive move remains over 59 on increased, above average volume. After forming more of a handle, the breakout is 60.02 on volume 380,000. With either play: stock and/or January $55 calls to buy (RMD AK).

TECD ($42.56; +0.46): TECD has sold back hard to the 50 day (41.52), today bouncing but selling back down as volume fell slightly to 1.01 million (average 874,600). We will see if it can hold the 50 day, establish support and show a better bounce on increased volume, with the buy point on that move 44.75 with stock and/or December $40 calls to buy (TDQ LH).

Plays:

CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$75.00; +0.10; optionable): Banking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5:4 split on 6-29-98. The stock price was $54.63. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-20-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has insufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Consolidating and holding support in the right side of the cup. Volume fell slightly today (down to 94,100, average 158,100) as CBH closed with a tight doji over the 10 day MVA (74.44). This stock recovered quickly when the markets re-opened, and since then has shown a series of small breakouts along its trend that are quickly leveling off (or pulling back to the short-term MVA's) before taking off again. It has made four moves up the 18 day MVA, the most recent occurring last week, and is now approaching the left side high (77.90, from the v-shaped cup that dates back to early August). After four moves we often see a longer rest with a deeper pullback, so if it cannot hold here we will watch the 50 day (71.80). At any rate, we are looking for the formation of a solid handle for the breakout move. Target: 85.
BUY POINT: After a lower-volume consolidation over the 71.50 to 72.50 range, we will look for a breakout: 76.82 on volume of 240,000. Stop: 72.50.
POSITION: Stock and/or December $70 calls to buy (CBH LN).

JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$74.19; +2.29; optionable): Construction. Did not get the announcement Thursday.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that JEC has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 2-13-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Trying to move on low volume. Today JNC pushed up from its brief consolidation at 72 (10 day MVA at 71.12), but volume stayed steady and below average at 187,200 (average 216,100), so although it hit the buy point a play was not triggered. Today's action follows a stalled breakout attempt from a rough cup-with-handle dating back to June; we were looking for a more stable handle to set up over support. The aggressive can consider positions on a stronger move up, but we prefer to see a more stable consolidation that drifts back on lower volume and leads to a stronger run up. Left side high (from June) at 75.67. New target: 85
BUY POINT: After pulling into a low-volume consolidation in the 71 range, a move back over 73 on volume in the 250,000 range. Stop: 69. From here: 75.79 on volume of 280,000 or better. Stop: 71.
POSITION: Stock or January $70 calls to buy (JEC AN).

MKC (McCormick--$43.16; -0.01; optionable): Food & Beverage.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mkc.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in November 1991. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-21-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: After plunging through support Friday, we were looking for a failed bounce of the 50 day to set up a quick put play. Instead, MKC is hovering just over 43 on below average volume. From here, we don't have a lot of in either direction, and the play is not shaping up, so we are dropping for now but will keep an eye on it.

SLM (USA Education--$86.90; +1.30; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slm.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 7:2 split on 11-21-97 at a price of $132. The annual shareholder meeting 5-10-01 at which time additional shares were authorized.
STATUS: Tried to breakout today. But although the volume increased significantly to 418,200 (average 761,900), it was still much lighter than we were looking for, so this move may not last. Still, SLM did managed to close over the left side highs (from the small cup dating back to the early October), so we will watch to see if we get stronger upward momentum from here to carry the move out of this broad ascending wedge pattern (dating back to late September). Target: If we get a strong move up, it could make a run to 100.
BUY POINT: From here: a move over 87.50 on above average volume. Stop: 84. If we get a pullback we will see if it can hold the 85 range for a stronger move back up.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $85 calls to buy (SLM AQ).

SUI (Sun Communities--$37.94; -0.03; no options): REIT. http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sui.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that SUI has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-22-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Consolidating over support. Volume increased to 40,600 (average 48,000) as SUI showed a small gain today, but still closed below resistance from its recent highs. This handle-type consolidation (off of an attempted break from a small 'flying W') is gently pulling back over support at the 10 day MVA (37.80), and looks pretty good as it shows light volume. From here we want to see it continue to hold support, while we look for the upward momentum to resume with a strong move. Target 45.
BUY POINT: 38.37 on above average volume, with stock. Stop: 37.25.

THC (Tenet Health Care--$56.95; +0.62; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thc.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a stock split in September 1991 in the $45 range. No additional shares will be authorized at the annual shareholder meeting, but the company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Looking for the stronger selling to resume. After tanking back from its 50 day MVA (57.49), THC closed the week with a weak bounce from support at 54. Since then, volume has continued to fall as the stock has pushed up to the loose convergence of the 50 & short-term MVA's (18 day at 57.33). Today the stock tapped up to those levels again before falling well off the intraday high to close as volume fell to 1.71 million (average 2.11 million). With the weak volume gains and the close of the intraday highs under resistance, we are looking for THC to drop back again, looking for new or additional positions on a move through 56. On that move we could get support again at 54, but if it can make it through that support we are targeting the 200 day MVA, at 50.31.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A drop through 56 on above average volume.
POSITION: December $60 puts to buy (THC XL).

POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

Watchlist:

JNJ ($59.65; +0.63): Split 2:1 June 12. Little change as JNJ is still drifting up a low volume consolidation over the 10 day MVA (59). From here or after a pullback to support at the 58-59 range we are looking for the breakout buy point at 59.97 on volume of 10 million or more (volume increased today to 5.80 million, average 8.09 million), with stock and/or January $55 calls to buy (JNJ AK).

Plays:

ATK (Alliant Techsystems--$77.20; -6.55; optionable): Aerospace/Defense. Split 3:2 effective 9-10-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atk.html
STATUS: Serious breach of support today on good war news and news of a secondary offering of shares. After gently dropping back from the recent high of 92.21, we were watching to see if ATK could catch support at the 50 day MVA (82.38) and former pattern lows from the small October cup, and mount another move up, but that didn't happen. Instead ATK sold back hard through the 50 day today on sharply increased volume of 976,700 (average 321,500). With this strong action it has a lot of downward momentum, but we could get a relief bounce. We will look for a failed bounce toward the 50 day and for more strong selling down to trigger a put play.
PLAY: After a low volume test of the 80 range fails, we are looking for stronger selling back down, with stock and/or December $90 puts to buy (ATK XR).

JNC (John Nuveen--$49.34; +1.19; no options): Financial Services. Split 3:2 effective September 28.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnc.html
STATUS: Good move today! Today JNC gapped out of its brief consolidation (formed after a stalled breakout attempt of a solid flying plateau) and over our buy point (48.50) and made a solid push up to a new all time high as volume increased sharply to 71,200 (average 59,800). Nice move, but although volume was strong, it was a bit lighter than we were looking for; therefore, we will exercise caution with stops on existing positions and watch carefully to see if the move stalls. We want to see the upward momentum to continue on stronger volume. Target: 53.
PLAY: Still a buy up to 50.93 on increased volume. Stop: 48. Stock only.

RMCI (Right Mgmt--$26.59; +2.34; no options): Business services. Split 3:2 effective 11-2-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmci.html
STATUS: Another great move today! After bouncing from the 50 day MVA (20.66) last Friday, RCMI continued up and showed us a terrific breakout today (out of its recent rolling range) and closed at a new all-time high. The stock initially gapped up to open, and then briefly tested back towards Monday's close before catching itself and powering back up on increased volume of 348,300 (average 159,800). From here the stock is too extended to look for additional positions, so we will ride toward the target of 30, eyeing a possible test of the breakout (at 25) for new or additional positions.
PLAY: After lower volume test of 25 that holds, a move back up on increased, above average volume. Stock only. Stop: 25.

WFMI (Whole Foods--$37.88; +0.51; optionable): Grocery Stores. Split 2:1 June 5.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: Could not sustain the breakout, and may be starting to form another handle. After ending last week with consecutive closes off the intraday high, we were looking for a lower volume pullback to support at the 10 day MVA (36.65). WFMI did test back through the 10 day Monday, but managed to run nearly all the way back up and today held its ground as well after gapping down to open. We will see if the stock can move into a slightly descending consolidation over support, on lower volume, to set up the next run (the handle setting up the most recent move was drifting up, which is not solid action). Ultimately, we are looking for a solid move up over the recent high (38.50). The stock is scheduled to report earnings Wednesday after the close.
PLAY: After a lower-volume pullback that forms a handle, 38.62 on volume of 900,000 (average 600,000; today 692,600), with stock and/or February $35 calls to buy (FMQ BG). Stop: 36.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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