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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Weekend play results:
CNQR: Still in the nice test of the 18 day EMA
COH: Tested the 50 day EMA and rebounded on some volume.
GME: Testing the 18 day EMA on low volume.
EPIC: Turning lower; just needs some more volume.
SPY: Struggling at the 50 day EMA.
PSSI: Holding the 18 day EMA with a nice tight doji
TYC: Looks to be failing the test of the 10 day EMA
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/13/2006
ANN (Ann Taylor--$34.46; -0.25; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ann.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ANN surged to a new all time high to start the month on strong, better than expected January sales. That jumped it out of a 7 week base that formed over the 50 day EMA (33.03). Strong volume on the break higher. In the subsequent market weakness ANN has tested that move, easing back to the 18 day EMA (34.21) on lower, below average volume. Ht has held that near support along with price support at 34. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the short base (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) shows plenty of buying. Strong money flow has held up during the pullback. Nice test and ready for a higher volume bounce to start the play as ANN moves toward a new high.
Volume: 720.7K Avg Volume: 1.559M
BUY POINT: $35.21 Volume=2.3M Target=$42 Stop=$34.05
POSITION: ANN FG - June $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ann.html
Play Date: 02/13/2006
BLKB (Blackbaud--$18.34; +0.44; no options): Software products for non-profit orgs.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blkb.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. BLKB is trying to make the break higher from its 12 week pattern that formed using the 50 day EMA (17.13) on the two legs as support. Broke higher Monday but volume was lower and below average. Positive 3 to 2 accumulation shows net buying and relative strength is making the breakout. Very solid technically and solid fundamentals.
Volume: 258.91K Avg Volume: 393.461K
BUY POINT: $18.57 Volume=500K Target=$22 Stop=$17.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/blkb.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/13/2006
NDE (Indymac Bancorp--$38.14; -0.47; optionable): Savings and loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nde.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. NDE is under pressure, having formed an 11 week distribution pattern. It is right at the neckline, the breakdown point for a downside move from this type of pattern. Money flow is falling ahead of price. This is the same pattern that NDE showed from June to September and it tumbled just as the textbooks say it should, i.e. the height of the pattern. Our initial target is modest, just half the pattern height. If it continues lower from our target we will let it, but a move to our first target lands us a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 543.5K Avg Volume: 768.564K
BUY POINT: $37.95 Volume=775K Target=$36 Stop=$38.25
POSITION: NDE OH - Mar. $40p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nde.html
Continuing plays ready to move:
Play Date: 02/07/2006
OVTI (Omnivision Technologies--$25.85; -0.45; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ovti.html
After Hours: $25.87
STATUS: Breakout test. OVTI blasted higher last Thursday on strong volume, breaking higher as it continues working on the right side of a large 27 month base. Nice surge and a lower volume test Friday and Monday, holding the 10 day EMA (25.57) on the intraday low. Looking for a rebound from here on continued above average volume. Strong money flow is leading higher. Relative strength broke out on the price move; good sign for the break higher.
Volume: 1.59M Avg Volume: 2.888M
BUY POINT: $26.05 Volume=3M Target=$30.88 Stop=$25.25
POSITION: UCM FE - June $25c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ovti.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/11/2006
EPIC (Epicor Software--$12.17; -0.2; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/epic.html
STATUS: Downside test of the 10 day EMA. Rolled lower Monday but on very light, below average volume. Want to see a bit more volume on the turn lower, but ready to make the drop. To recap: EPIC gapped sharply lower to start February. It had faded back to the 200 day SMA (13.11) in a 10 week head and shoulders pattern. The gap was on huge volume and then EPIC recovered this month on lower and lower volume. It stalled out at the 10 day EMA (12.46) last week and with the poor money flow we anticipate EPIC heading back down this week. A move to the target lands us a 55%ish gain.
Volume: 295.155K Avg Volume: 480.006K
BUY POINT: New: $12.07 (orig. $12.25) Volume=675K Target=$11.09 Stop=$12.57
POSITION: EUE OV - Mar. $12.50p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/epic.html
Play Date: 02/09/2006
TYC (Tyco Intl.--$25.17; -0.29; optionable): Conglomerates
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tyc.html
STATUS: Downside test 10 day EMA. TYC continues to struggle, trying to move through the 10 day EMA (25.51) Monday, but reversing and closing lower. Volume was still very low and very below average as it turned; want to see it pump up a bit more as it continues lower. Looks primed to make the fall and make us a run to the target and a 55%ish gain.
Volume: 5.539M Avg Volume: 13.519M
BUY POINT: $24.94 Volume=14M Target=$23.91 Stop=$25.32
POSITION: TYC OE - Mar. $25p (-38 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tyc.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
Need some replacements for the portfolio for AAPL, BR, RTSX. Send in your ideas for leaders that you want to see in the portfolio.
AAPL, CELG, BR, COH, NVDA, PSYS, RTSX, STN, UNH
COH: Reached down 34 on the low and rebounded on rising, almost average volume. Good shakeout and looking for the breakout.
NVDA: Hanging tough in a weak market, making a test of the 18 day EMA.
PSYS: Tapped the 50 day EMA on the low and rebounded to close positive on rising volume. May be the shakeout it needed.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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