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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: CNI; TKC; TRID
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/18/2006
PPDI (Pharmaceutical Prodcut Dev.--$68.25; +0.95; optionable): Medical labs. Splits 2:1 on 3-1-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppdi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. PPDI broke out from a 12 week ascending base in mid-January and rallied to 70 on the high. In the weakness this month PPDI has come back to test that move, holding near the 18 day EMA (66.96) support. It fell mid-month, but caught support and worked laterally. It started back up to end last week but volume lagged behind. Looking for a bit more trade as it continues higher; that will give us the entry point we want as PPDI makes its pre-split move.
Volume: 240.445K Avg Volume: 362.414K
BUY POINT: $68.62 Volume=544K Target=$78.95 Stop=$66.72
POSITION: PJQ GN - July $70c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ppdi.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/18/2006
GPN (Global Payments--$49.92; +0.55; optionable): Payment systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpn.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Market leader coming back to test the 50 day EMA (48.06) after a solid run from September to November, a short base, and another run from December through January. It ahs spent the past three weeks fading back to test that run, holding at the 50 day EMA (48.06) and price support at 48 as well. Volume has started to pick back up on the upside sessions, and Friday was a very solid price/volume move. Money flow is solid and is leading higher. Looking for GPN to continue its rebound this week on continued strong volume.
Volume: 655.6K Avg Volume: 668.53K
BUY POINT: $50.35 Volume=1M Target=$57.95 Stop=$48.78
POSITION: GPN HJ - Aug. $50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gpn.html
Play Date: 02/18/2006
AMX (America Movil--$34.32; -0.12; optionable): Latin America wireless telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Taking another run at AMX. It dipped to the 50 day EMA (31.92) and price support at 32 twice in February, setting up a very short attempt at a double bottom. AMX is trending higher and has done so for 2005. This little lateral jog this month is giving it a breather for the next leg higher. It rebounded off the 50 day last week but volume fell as it made its move. Friday it showed a doji on lower volume, and we anticipate it will slide laterally a couple more sessions and then be ready to vamanos.
Volume: 2.459M Avg Volume: 3.75M
BUY POINT: $34.68 Volume=5.6M Target=$40.95 Stop=$33.11
POSITION: AMX HG - Aug. $35c (49 delta) or AMX EF - May $30c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amx.html
Leader Plays: These stocks could turn into pre-announcement plays. The patterns are solid as are the stocks, and they can make us money as they breakout from these bases.
Play Date: 02/18/2006
RSTI (Rofin-Sinar Tech--$50.81; +1.07; optionable): Laser-based products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rsti.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. RSTI jumped out of a 7 week base in late January and rallied to 52. It slipped into the current 3 week lateral move to consolidate the break higher, moving laterally on much lower, below average volume as the 10 day EMA (49.30) rose up to meet it. Friday that was enough to start it back up as RSTI rallied out of the consolidation on very strong volume. Looks ready to continue its run. Top rated stock on all counts.
Volume: 241.131K Avg Volume: 115.248K
BUY POINT: $51.05 Volume=173K Target=$58.95 Stop=$48.55
POSITION: QRT FJ - June $50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rsti.html
Play Date: 02/11/2006
GME (Gamestop--$41.15; -0.55; optionable): Electronic games stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
STATUS: Breakout test. GME continues to trade around the 10 and 18 day EMA (40.96 and 40.45, respectively), trying to make the next leg higher after holding near support. It is not getting any volume to drive it just yet, and it tested back to the 10 day EMA Friday on the close. Excellent money flow is leading higher; after this pullback is over it will be ready to continue its move. To recap: GME broke higher in January out of a 7 month base that formed after a strong run the first half of 2005. This base has allowed it to consolidate that move and set up for the next run. The mid-January breakout took GME to 43.50 on the run and then it made a nice, orderly and low volume pullback to test that move last week, holding the 18 day. In short, it used the selling to test the move, but there was no dumping the stock as volume was quite low. Strong money flow continues to lead higher. Relative strength broke out on the move, a very bullish indication. Looking for a bounce off this near support on a good return of volume to enter the play.
Volume: 716.5K Avg Volume: 1.693M
BUY POINT: New: $42.05 (orig. $41.11) Volume=2M Target=$48.95 Stop=$39.89
POSITION: GME GH - July $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gme.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Lots of stocks still in position for split announcements. We have some good information on many though some are wild cards, i.e. no split history but hearing word of a possible split announcement. All are good leadership quality stocks that can make us money if they show us the breakout moves.
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ANF: Potentially forecast for May.
BIO: Forecast 2-22 with earnings.
CNQ: Forecast 2-23-06
CTSH: Researching the next possible date but enjoying the gains.
DBRN: Researching to pinpoint the next date.
DRI: Forecast third week in March.
GS: Researching exact date.
GVA: Forecast 2-15-06. Strong earnings and gapped higher.
IRM: Forecast 3-1-06
ITG: Forecast first week of March.
JEC: Did not announce in January. Still in a nice consolidation, setting up the next move.
LM: Researching to pinpoint a date. Right now it looks like late April.
LRCX: Researching the exact date.
MRVL: Forecast 2-23-06
NOV: Forecast 2-24-06. Still not in a position we want to buy into. Will see how it sets up early this week.
ODP: Forecast 2-23-06
PNRA: Forecast 4-12-06
POOL: No announcement with earnings on 2-16-06.
RARE: Researching to pinpoint the date.
RJF: No split announced, but letting it ride higher for us in the current uptrend.
TLM: Forecast 3-1-06. Will need to set back up for us.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 02/18/2006
NX (Quanex--$62.30; +0.90; optionable): Engineered carbon & allow steel, flat rolled aluminum products, precision formed wood and metal products. Forecast to announce a split 2-23-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split 12-2-05 at $58.90.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nx.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. NX pre-announced some strong Q1 earnings in mid-January and gapped higher, completing the 'head' to its pattern. It then spent the past three weeks testing that move, forming the right shoulder to its 19 week base. Excellent 6 to 2 accumulation shows plenty of buying during the consolidation. That sets the base for the breakout and run higher. Thursday and Friday it was moving, rallying to the neckline. Volume was mediocre. Now we need to see that volume surge as it moves through the buy point. Solid set up for the breakout, and timely as well given we are looking for the split announcement this week.
Volume: 291.6K Avg Volume: 379.151K
BUY POINT: $63.48 Volume=569K Target=$73 Stop=$59.89
POSITION: NX HM - Aug. $65c (47 delta) or NX EL - May $60c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nx.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 02/04/2006
PNRA (Panera Bread--$72.29; +0.28; optionable): Restaurants. No split announced on 2-9-06
BACKGROUND: Announced its only 2:1 split on 4-10-02 at $62.00
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pnra.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in the very nice pullback/test this past week, holding the closest support at the 10 day EMA (71.83) on the closes and on low volume. A true leader that has used the recent chop to test its break higher and set up the strong move. To recap: Tried the breakout move two Fridays back after earnings, but the move sputtered. Indeed, it has worked to form a better pattern, pulling back the last two sessions on lower, below average volume, forming a handle to its 9 week base formed above the 50 day EMA (68.15). This is great action, shaking out the last sellers and setting it up for a strong break higher. Strong money flow is leading the stock higher.
Volume: 283.649K Avg Volume: 557.548K
BUY POINT: $72.55 Volume=801K Target=$83.25 Stop=$70.35
POSITION: UPA EN - May $70c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pnra.html
Play Date: 02/09/2006
RARE (Rare Hospitality--$31.88; -0.13; no options): Restaurants. Researching to pinpoint a date. May wait until April, but it is at its split range.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 7-23-03 at $35.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rare.html
After Hours: $31.89
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nicely formed 13 week base, working laterally the past four weeks to build the handle that typically precedes the breakout move. RARE used the 200 day SMA (29.17) as support for the double bottoms, showing that the institutions were buyers at that level, supporting the stock. This base has formed just below a new all-time highs, setting RARE up for a breakout to where there is no overhead resistance. Money flow remains strong. Looks ready to make the move.
Volume: 217.169K Avg Volume: 270.214K
BUY POINT: $32.65 Volume=401K Target=$37.65 Stop=$31.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rare.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/16/2006
CELG (Celgene--$70.30; -0.11; optionable): Drugs. Splits 2:1 on 2-27-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
After Hours: $70.30
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. A week until the split, and CELG is poised for a pre-split run. Low volume for the entire month; not showing any strong volume spikes yet. Hammer doji Friday indicates it is in position to make a move. Looking for a volume push when it does. To recap: Has formed something of a short 7 week cup with handle over the 18 day EMA (69.32) following a high volume surge in late December and early January. Very, very quiet trade the past three weeks as it formed the handle. Money flow remains strong. It has simply gone about its business during all of the chop and selling, forming this base. All of this quiet action is leading up to a break higher toward the split.
Volume: 1.582M Avg Volume: 2.348M
BUY POINT: $70.88 Volume=3M Target=$71 Stop=$68.89
POSITION: LQH GN - July $70c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/celg.html
Play Date: 02/02/2006
VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$51.63; +0.04; optionable): Chip equipment. Splits 3:2 on 3-1-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Strong volume Thursday as VSEA gapped higher but could not hold the move. Quiet, low volume session Friday and a tight doji. Holding up very well and setting up for the move. It is just over a week out and it should start the move toward the split move. To recap: VSEA has hung in very well in the recent selling, making a low volume fade to the 18 day EMA (51.06), not giving up its uptrend that started after the early January breakout from its 4.5 month reverse head and shoulders base. Very solid. The split coming up on March 1 (3:2) does not hurt.
Volume: 470.048K Avg Volume: 732.194K
BUY POINT: New: $52.12 (orig. $51.12) Volume=1.4M Target=$59.78 Stop=$49.65
POSITION: UES EJ - May $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vsea.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/11/2006
COH (Coach--$36.20; +0.12; optionable): Handbags, accessories
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still looking for the breakout move as COH continues to form the handle and is testing at the top of the handle range. Volume was up last week as it made the test of the 50 day EMA (34.72) and rebounded. It is close and is looking strong. To recap: COH has formed an 11 week base over the 200 day SMA (33.17) as part of a larger 7.5 month ascending triangle base. Solid accumulation in the current pattern, showing net buyers and setting up the breakout. COH has formed a nice handle to the base this month, using the market selling to make a low volume pullback to test. Nice money flow to go along with the accumulation. Ready to move to a new all-time high after this handle completes.
Volume: 2.187M Avg Volume: 2.739M
BUY POINT: $36.88 Volume=4.1M Target=$42.95 Stop=$35.15
POSITION: COH EG - May $35c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Play Date: 02/15/2006
USPI (United Surgical--$39.25; +0.97; optionable): Short stay surgical facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uspi.html
After Hours: $39.27
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Good volume Friday and a strong price move up to 40.29 on the high, but it could not hold it all, giving back half the move on the close. Not a great day for a strong move, but USPI still held a good move. Excellent action and ready to make the breakout and make it stick. To recap: Low volume in the right shoulder was low but jumped up Thursday and Friday. Nice 22 week base that has formed just below a new all-time high. Solid leader that split in July and then carved out this base. This gives it the foundation it needs for the next run higher.
Volume: 571.888K Avg Volume: 534.584K
BUY POINT: $39.87 Volume=788K Target=$47.85 Stop=$37.96
POSITION: QPJ HH - Aug. $40c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uspi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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