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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ADAM; INFA
Weekend play results:
ISIL: Low volume hold at the 10 day EMA as it took the day off
IM: Nice doji testing the 18 day EMA on the low.
MCHP: Reached down below the 18 day EMA and rebounded.
SCMR: Nope. Gapped higher and then tanked.
SONO: Nice. Looks ready to make the break now.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/21/2006
ADM (Archer Daniels Midland--$31.19; +1.11; optionable): Corn products used for ethanol
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adm.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. ADM broke out from a 12 week flat base in January and rallied to 32. This month it has moved laterally over 30 as the 18 day EMA (30) rose to meet it. Tuesday the President was out and about touting renewable energy, and thus ADM jumped on volume. Money flow is still leading the stock higher. Relative strength looks ready for another breakout. Looking solid and just needs to clear the highs in this pattern for us to start the play.
Volume: 6.584M Avg Volume: 3.708M
BUY POINT: $31.62 Volume=4.2M Target=$37.95 Stop=$29.94
POSITION: ADM FF - June $30c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/adm.html
Play Date: 02/21/2006
KNOT (The Knot--$14.96; -0.34; no options): Internet marriage services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/knot.html
STATUS: Breakout test. After gapping away from us to start the month, KNOT is testing that move, fading back to the 10 day EMA (14.92) on lower trade. It has partially filled the second gap and may still come back to fill the first gap up from 14, but it is very strong and looking for it to hold support near this level. Want to see that volume kick back up as it makes the rebound from here. KNOT Formed a 12 week base and broke higher in mid-January. It then faded back to test, holding the 18 day EMA as it did. It broke higher form there on the last move higher. Now it looks ready after this test. Want to see the volume turn back up as it rebounds through the buy point.
Volume: 97.572K Avg Volume: 145.84K
BUY POINT: $15.45 Volume=210K Target=$18.55 Stop=$14.75
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/knot.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/21/2006
SWN (Southwestern Energy--$35.27; +0.3; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/swn.html
STATUS: Put. SWN double topped in late January and plunged. It broke through the 50 day EMA (37.25) on its way to 31, just over the 200 day SMA (30.52). It managed a rebound last week, but could only muster one session of stronger volume (the session that started the rebound); after that volume declined as it rebounded. Tuesday SWN gapped higher on the Nigeria and general oil news, coming close to the 18 day EMA (36.50) on the high. It reversed and closed near the 10 day EMA. Looking for SWN to roll over here and move lower toward the 200 day SMA to either breakdown or form a double bottom. Our initial target is well above that level, but if it keeps going we will let it do just that. A move to our target lands us a 43% gain.
Volume: 2.42M Avg Volume: 3.2M
BUY POINT: $34.98 Volume=3.2M Target=$33 Stop=$35.48
POSITION: SWN OG - Mar. $35p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/swn.html
Continuing plays ready to move:
Play Date: 02/13/2006
ANN (Ann Taylor--$35.42; -0.09; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ann.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Gapped higher Friday but faded on low volume. Tapped the 10 day EMA (35.07) on the low and rebounded to recoup some losses. Looks ready to make the breakout from its 10 week base. Strong money flow is leading the way higher.
Volume: 614.4K Avg Volume: 1.468M
BUY POINT: $35.21 Volume=2.3M Target=$42 Stop=$34.05
POSITION: ANN FG - June $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ann.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, BRCM, CELG, COH, FFIV, GME, MRVL, NVDA, PSYS, UNH
AAPL: Tested the 50 day EMA (71.09) last week but rolled lower Tuesday on rising volume. Not a good sign that this rebound will hold.
FFIV: Gapped higher and rallied to 65 but could not hold the move on this day. Still really nice.
MRVL: Sold to the 50 day EMA on above average volume. Not liking this action.
NVDA: Has given back the earnings move but still holding the 10 day EMA.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock option
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