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us stock market, stock research
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ISE; NOVL; RSTI; SIRF; TRID; VTAL; ZIGO; RRC
Strong plays:
1) DIOD: Strong volume as it starts the next move higher.
2) MGI: Strong volume as well as it breaks higher from its base.
3) EZPW: Ready for the breakout.
4) CDIS: Turning down from the 10 day EMA.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 02/22/2006
DIOD (Diodes--$37.96; +1.08; optionable): Semiconductors integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/diod.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Volume jumped Wednesday as DIOD started the breakout move from a four week lateral move over the 18 day EMA (36.52) that formed immediately after the late January breakout from a short 6 week ascending base. A leading stock in the market, DIOD is set up to make the next move to a new all-time high. Excellent money flow and relative strength is ready to make the breakout move.
Volume: 632.037K Avg Volume: 391.36K
BUY POINT: $38.15 Volume=550K Target=$45.75 Stop=$36.38
POSITION: DUH FG - June $35c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/diod.html
Play Date: 02/22/2006
JTX (Jackson Hewitt--$28.67; +0.8; optionable): Income tax services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jtx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice base on base pattern with a reverse head and shoulders breakout to start December and then the current 6 week base. Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows all buying complemented by strong money flow. Volume jumped well above average Wednesday, the strongest volume in almost 2 months. Ready to make the breakout to a new all-time high. A new issue in June 2005, and we like young stocks. Solid fundamentals to go with the pattern.
Volume: 329.7K Avg Volume: 189.01K
BUY POINT: $28.95 Volume=284K Target=$33.95 Stop=$27.42
POSITION: JTX GF - July $30c (49 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jtx.html
Play Date: 02/22/2006
MGI (Moneygram Intl.--$28.1; +0.4; no options): Payment handling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mgi.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A new issue in July 2005, MGI is moving through its second base, an 11 week base formed over the 50 day EMA (26.60). Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows all buying, setting up the breakout move to a new all-time high. Strong money flow is surging and relative strength is ready to deliver the breakout move as well. Volume jumped Wednesday as MGI started the move. Looking to enter on a further gain on solid volume. Strong fundamentals to go with the technical pattern. Love new, strong issues.
Volume: 585.3K Avg Volume: 396.471K
BUY POINT: $28.25 Volume=550K Target=$33.75 Stop=$27.22
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mgi.html
Play Date: 02/22/2006
OXPS (OptionsXpress Holdings--$30.90; +1.02; optionable): Brokerage service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oxps.html
After Hours: $30.91
STATUS: Ascending base. A new issue a year ago, OXPS has enjoyed a good run in the second half of 2005. It needed a breather and started the current 5 week base, using the 18 day EMA (29.60) as support. In short, it has refused to give back any of its gains. Positive accumulation is setting up the breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 611.768K Avg Volume: 1.032M
BUY POINT: $31.21 Volume=1.5M Target=$37.45 Stop=$29.52
POSITION: QYB FF - June $30c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/oxps.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/22/2006
PDS (Precision Drilling--$31.81; +0.21; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pds.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. PD double topped in January, the second top on low volume. It broke down this month, falling through the 50 day EMA (32.18) and then spent he past week building back up to that level. Tuesday it tapped the 50 day on the high and fell back. Wednesday it gained some ground but could not punch through. Looking for PDS to fail here and want to see some volume as it does. A move to the target lands us a 49%ish gain.
Volume: 981.8K Avg Volume: 547.169K
BUY POINT: $31.48 Volume=550K Target=$30 Stop=$31.75
POSITION: PDS PF - Apr. $30p (-33 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pds.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 02/18/2006
BMRN (Biomarin Pharmaceuticals--$12.07; +0.28; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmrn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Good move off the 10 day EMA (11.77) but volume did not follow, remaining below average. Still a sweet little base ready for the breakout to a 3 year high. To recap: Strong surge from October needed a breather, and BMRN has formed a nice 7 week base over the 50 day EMA (11.19), helping it catch the breath it needed. Positive accumulation and strong money flow complement each other as it forms the handle, the last shakeout of sellers, before the next break higher. Strong upside volume last Tuesday and Thursday show buying is ongoing. Solid technically and good fundamentals. Looks to have finished forming the pattern.
Volume: 278.384K Avg Volume: 471.91K
BUY POINT: $12.21 Volume=700K Target=$14.65 Stop=$11.55
POSITION: NUR GV - July $12.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bmrn.html
Play Date: 02/11/2006
CVD (Covance--$56.95; +0.13; optionable): Research services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvd.html
STATUS: Breakout test. CVD jumped off the 18 day EMA (56.13) last week but volume faded as it rose. It has come back to test the 10 day EMA (56.74), holding that level the past two sessions on low, below average volume. Want to see it hold here and then show some volume as it rebounds. To recap: Broke out from a 20 week cup with handle base in January and surged to 58. it has since tested the 18 day EMA, rebounded on low trade, and then tested the 10 day EMA, all on low volume. Strong money flow and a market leader.
Volume: 239.4K Avg Volume: 425.735K
BUY POINT: $56.11 Volume=643K Target=$64.95 Stop=$54.95
POSITION: CVD HK - Aug. $55c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvd.html
Play Date: 02/11/2006
EZPW (Ezcorp--$22.83; +1.24; optionable): Specialty retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ezpw.html
After Hours: $22.79
STATUS: Breakout test. Looks like it is ready to continue the breakout, moving higher Wednesday on stronger, average volume. This comes after a three week lateral move that consolidated the late January gap higher out of an 18 week cup base. This move took it to an 11 year high. Strong money flow is leading the way higher. Relative strength broke out on the Wednesday move, a very good indication for the stock.
Volume: 185.395K Avg Volume: 167.579K
BUY POINT: New: $23.05 (orig. $22.22) Volume=267K Target=$27.55 Stop=$20.68
POSITION: ULP FD - June $20c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ezpw.html
Play Date: 02/14/2006
RVSN (Radvision--$20.18; +0.18; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rvsn.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Still consolidating, holding the 10 day EMA (19.89) on the closed as it moves laterally in a tight range on low volume. Going about its own business, setting up the next move. Just needs some volume. To recap: RVSN held the 10 day EMA the past week, tapping at that level intraday and then rebounding to the close. It is showing great strength on this shallow test after that strong break higher two weeks back on a strong earnings report. With money flow still moving higher ahead of price we anticipate RVSN is going to follow it soon.
Volume: 202.061K Avg Volume: 415.076K
BUY POINT: New: $20.57 (orig. $20.22) Volume=500K Target=$22.32 Stop=$19.22
POSITION: RJU FD - June $20c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rvsn.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/21/2006
CDIS (Cal Dive--$35.33; -0.96; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cdis.html
After Hours: $35.32
STATUS: Put. Head and shoulders. CDIS gapped lower Wednesday. It sold to 34.87 on the low then rebounded to recoup some of the loss. Volume remained low on the selling, and thus the rebound. Anticipating a bit more of a rebound toward the 10 day EMA (36.43) and then the turn back down. To recap: The joke about the pattern you ask? A blonde and brunette are in an elevator. A man walks in with a bad case of dandruff. He gets off at the next floor and the brunette says 'he could use some Head & Shoulders.' The blonde asks 'how do you give shoulders?' CDIS formed the head at the January high and then tanked from that peak on high volume. It ran lower the past three weeks, breaking the 50 day EMA as it did. The past week it rebounded to test the move, but could only make it to the 10 day EMA on the high. It really did not form a right shoulder, instead falling right through the neckline at 36ish last week. Looking for it to roll over here at the 10 day EMA and follow the money flow lower. A move to the target lands us a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 845.56K Avg Volume: 1.627M
BUY POINT: New: Test toward 36, then $35.95 on the drop. Volume=1.8M Target=$33.95 Stop=$36.72
POSITION: KPQ OU - Mar. $37.50p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cdis.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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