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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: AMX
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/23/2006
QLGC (Qlogic--$39.24; +0.15; optionable): Bus adaptors, switches, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
After Hours: $39.22
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. On again, off again, but hanging in there and looking good. Big 13 month base and now fading back the past two weeks on mixed volume. It has held where it needs to, right at the 18 day EMA (39.26), showing a pair of dojis at that level after some choppier high volume trade. Looks to have settled down and volume jumped up to average Thursday on that doji. Looking for even stronger trade as it starts the move and blasts through the buy point.
Volume: 2.016M Avg Volume: 1.823M
BUY POINT: $40.25 Volume=2.2M Target=$46.35 Stop=$38.95
POSITION: QLC GH - July $40c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qlgc.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Lots of stocks still in position for split announcements. We have some good information on many though some are wild cards, i.e. no split history but hearing word of a possible split announcement. All are good leadership quality stocks that can make us money if they show us the breakout moves.
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ANF: Potentially forecast for May.
BIO: Forecast 2-22 with earnings. Massive gap lower. Fortunately it never gave us the entry we wanted, and the action on the earnings shows why it did not.
CNQ: Forecast 2-23-06. Never gave us a decent recovery to buy into. Announced a dividend Thursday.
CTSH: Researching the next possible date but enjoying the gains.
DBRN: Researching to pinpoint the next date.
DRI: Forecast third week in March.
GS: Researching exact date.
IRM: Forecast 3-1-06
ITG: Forecast first week of March.
JEC: Did not announce in January. Surged this week on some nice contracts.
LM: Researching to pinpoint a date. Right now it looks like late April.
MRVL: Forecast 2-23-06. No split announcement. Announce some huge earnings but was down initially after hours and then started to rebound.
NOV: Forecast 2-24-06. And still not in a position we want to buy into.
NX: Forecast 2-23-06. Announced its split after the close and was bouncing off the 10 day EMA.
ODP: Forecast 2-23-06. No news today but ODP keeps on moving higher.
PNRA: Forecast 4-12-06
POOL: No announcement with earnings on 2-16-06. Making a nice test of its strong surge.
RARE: Researching to pinpoint the date.
RJF: Announced the split Wednesday, giving us a nice gain and we took part of it.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 02/23/2006
CEPH (Cephalon--$76.49; +1.30; optionable): Drugs. Researching the exact date, but it is ready to move now.
BACKGROUND: No splits in CEPH's history.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceph.html
After Hours: $76.39
STATUS: Ascending triangle. After a strong surge from September to January, CEPH needed a breather. This 6 week pattern formed over the 18 day EMA (73.24) has given it the rest and is ready to propel it higher and continue toward a new all-time high. This is the handle to a long, 4 year double bottom base. Volume has come to life the past three months, indicating plenty of buying in CEPH. That is what will drive it higher out of this current lateral move that shows excellent 4 to 1 accumulation.
Volume: 2.074M Avg Volume: 2.726M
BUY POINT: $76.72 Volume=3M Target=$92 Stop=$74.05
POSITION: CQE HP - Aug. $80c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ceph.html
Play Date: 02/23/2006
FRK (Florida Rock--$59.25; +0.6; optionable): Cement. Looking at March but researching to pinpoint the date.
BACKGROUND: Frequent splits. Last announced a 3:2 split on 5-4-05 at $59.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frk.html
STATUS: Cup. Working on the right side of a 19 week base, starting the move in late January on strong trade. Big upside volume sessions have punctuated upside surges on this run. Volume was again up Thursday as FRK broke through some resistance in the base at 58. Looking to start the play on a continued move on solid trade and then will add when it forms the handle and breaks out. Excellent 9 to 3 accumulation in the base shows a lot of buying, complementing the surging money flow. Solid.
Volume: 742.4K Avg Volume: 643.132K
BUY POINT: $59.75 Volume=850K Target=$71.75 Stop=$57.05
POSITION: FRK IL - Sept. $60c (52 delta) &.or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/frk.html
Play Date: 02/23/2006
IEX (Idex--$47.74; +1.49; optionable): Engineered industrial products.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 4-22-04 at $44.80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iex.html
STATUS: Test breakout. IEX is just coming off of its late January earnings announcement that helped break it out from its 18 week base. This is its second test of that breakout, holding the 18 day EMA (45.78) on each test. A strong stock will power up that support and IEX is doing that, showing a big doji Wednesday and a strong surge Thursday, both sessions on strong volume. Ready to start the play with a partial position as it continues higher and then will add on the next test. Strong fundamentals to go along with its great pattern.
Volume: 370K Avg Volume: 188.574K
BUY POINT: $48.05 Volume=200K Target=$55.35 Stop=$46.36
POSITION: IEX GI - July $45c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/iex.html
Play Date: 02/23/2006
VMC (Vulcan Materials--$79.53; +1.26; optionable): Building materials. Announced earnings to start February. Researching to pinpoint the date.
BACKGROUND: Last split 3:1 on 3-11-99 at $135. The ratio is right for a 2:1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vmc.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Announced a dividend and stock buy back with earnings so VMC may not be in the market for a split right now, but its pattern is super. VMC is moving laterally above the 10 day EMA (77.94) as that near support moved up to the stock after its big break higher to start the month. Great earnings helped propel VMC to the breakout from its 16 week base that formed along the 50 day EMA (73.32) and sporting strong 5 to 2 accumulation. Money flow is strong and moving higher. Volume is great, showing strong sessions on upside gains. Looking to move in as it breaks through near resistance on some rising, above average volume. A solid leader with great fundamentals as well.
Volume: 539.4K Avg Volume: 555.998K
BUY POINT: $80.11 Volume=800K Target=$92 Stop=$77.45
POSITION: VMC HP - Aug. $80c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vmc.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 02/21/2006
DBRN (Dress Barn--$44.84; +0.43; optionable): Apparel stores.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dbrn.html
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 on 5-2-02 at $31.
STATUS: Flying plateau. Still working laterally over the 18 day EMA (43.86) on low, below average volume, setting up for the next breakout move. Edged up Thursday; just need to see volume. To recap: DBRN is working laterally above support at 42.50, consolidating the November breakout and run higher out of a 16 week base. Strong mover for us that started to weaken last week but never gave in. Volume has remained low and below average on the lateral move. Strong money flow remains as well. Volume was up some Tuesday, and looking for more volume as DBRN moves through the 10 day EMA (44.19). If it shows us strong trade we will start the play there. If not we will wait for a break over 45 on strong trade in order to clear some interim resistance.
Volume: 478.733K Avg Volume: 820.503K
BUY POINT: $44.11 Volume=1.2M Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.55
POSITION: DTQ FI - June $45c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dbrn.html
Play Date: 02/04/2006
PNRA (Panera Bread--$70.97; -0.07; optionable): Restaurants. No announcement 2-9-06 after the close. Researching the next date.
BACKGROUND: Announced its only 2:1 split on 4-10-02 at $62.00
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pnra.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. PNRA is testing back on low volume, forming another handle to its 9 week cup with handle base. Money flow continues to lead higher. Solid accumulation. Both are setting the stage for this leader to make the breakout.
Volume: 312.673K Avg Volume: 533.374K
BUY POINT: $72.55 Volume=801K Target=$83.25 Stop=$70.35
POSITION: UPA EN - May $70c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pnra.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/21/2006
SLB (Schlumberger--$116.9; -0.12; optionable): Oil and gas services company. Splits 2:1 on 4-10-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slb.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA (111.53). A bit wild, gapping down toward the 50 day EMA (110.12) but then rebounding to close flat. Still set up to make the pre-split run for us. To recap: After a nasty drop this month, SLB jumped off the 50 day EMA Tuesday after three days at that level. Taking another run at it though energy is all over the map right now; SLB has a lot of institutional support and it showed as volume jumped at the 50 day EMA. Would like to see a little more volume as it moves higher. A move to the target lands us a 70%ish gain.
Volume: 5.097M Avg Volume: 5.964M
BUY POINT: $120.11 Volume=8M Target=$130 Stop=$116.95
POSITION: SLB ED - May $120c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slb.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/21/2006
BRO (Brown & Brown--$31; -0.27; optionable): Insurance brokers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bro.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working on the handle, showing an above average volume spike Thursday as BRO traded basically flat. Working on a very nice base from a very solid market leader. To recap: Solid surge last week as BRO broke out over the hump in the 8 week pattern (at 29.47) and rallied higher on strong upside volume. It is fading back, forming a second handle to the base right at the high on the left side of the base. Positive 2 to 1 accumulation in the base shows net buying, setting up BRO for the breakout to a new high once more. Likely to take another couple of sessions to finish forming the handle, and then looking for a high volume breakout when the move resumes.
Volume: 709.5K Avg Volume: 535.14K
BUY POINT: $31.75 Volume=808K Target=$37.95 Stop=$30
POSITION: BRO FF - June $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bro.html
Play Date: 02/22/2006
DIOD (Diodes--$37.59; -0.37; optionable): Semiconductors integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/diod.html
After Hours: $37.54
STATUS: Flying plateau. Low volume fade Thursday, holding most of the strong volume move Wednesday. Still very strong and ready for the break higher from this consolidation. To recap: Volume jumped Wednesday as DIOD started the breakout move from a four week lateral move over the 18 day EMA (36.64) that formed immediately after the late January breakout from a short 6 week ascending base. A leading stock in the market, DIOD is set up to make the next move to a new all-time high. Excellent money flow and relative strength is ready to make the breakout move.
Volume: 335.569K Avg Volume: 396.552K
BUY POINT: $38.15 Volume=550K Target=$45.75 Stop=$36.38
POSITION: DUH FG - June $35c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/diod.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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