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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ABAX; INFA; IVAC; KNOT; MINI; NUAN
Wednesday night play results:
LIFC: Turned right back down on continued strong volume.
MSCC: Nice doji at the 18 day EMA
COH: Low volume fade just below the breakout point.
MCHP: Slipped below the 18 day EMA on the close on lower trade. Still in position.
KMP: Rallied up to test the 18 day EMA on below average volume. Ready to head lower.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/23/2006
AQNT (Aquantive--$27.38; +1.54; optionable): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aqnt.html
After Hours: $27.40
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. AQNT is working laterally in a range over the past 13 weeks, trading around the 50 day EMA (25.77). This week it tested again on low volume and jumped higher Thursday on very strong trade. Showing some big upside volume spiked the past two weeks, and that indicates buying. The pattern is similar to a head and shoulders, and that is not positive, but the action shows accumulation; indeed it is 3 to 1 since January (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume). Money flow is surging higher. Looking for AQNT to power through the 28 shoulder tops on strong volume to start the play. A top ranked stock in earnings and sales growth.
Volume: 2.27M Avg Volume: 1.221M
BUY POINT: $28.11 Volume=1.8M Target=$33.75 Stop=$26.25
POSITION: QBT FE - June $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/aqnt.html
Play Date: 02/23/2006
ARNA (Arena Pharmaceuticals--$16.13; -0.18; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arna.html
After Hours: $16.14
STATUS: Ascending base. Strong market leader, ARNA gapped higher in December and then rallied further to start January. It needed a breather and fell into the current 6 week lateral move, letting the 50 day EMA (15.19) catch up with it. Accumulation is an excellent 4 to 0 in the pattern (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume), showing strong buying even as it works laterally. AQNT is a strong leader with great fundamentals. Money flow is leading higher as well. Strong leader ready to make the move higher.
Volume: 764.754K Avg Volume: 934.864K
BUY POINT: $17.08 Volume=1.2M Target=$20.55 Stop=$15.88
POSITION: UGG GC - July $15c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/arna.html
Play Date: 02/23/2006
VMC (Vulcan Materials--$79.53; +1.26; optionable): Building materials
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vmc.html
STATUS: Test breakout. VMC is moving laterally above the 10 day EMA (77.94) as that near support moved up to the stock after its big break higher to start the month. Great earnings helped propel VMC to the breakout from its 16 week base that formed along the 50 day EMA (73.32) and sporting strong 5 to 2 accumulation. Money flow is strong and moving higher. Volume is great, showing strong sessions on upside gains. Looking to move in as it breaks through near resistance on some rising, above average volume. A solid leader with great fundamentals as well.
Volume: 539.4K Avg Volume: 555.998K
BUY POINT: $80.11 Volume=800K Target=$92 Stop=$77.45
POSITION: VMC HP - Aug. $80c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/vmc.html
Current plays ready to move:
Play Date: 02/18/2006
IM (Ingram Micro--$20.1; -0.1; optionable): PC wholesaler
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/im.html
STATUS: Test breakout. It is a market of stocks; techs may be weaker but IM has a strong pattern, coming back this week on lower volume to test the 18 day EMA (19.91). Nice 10 week pattern at the tail end of a larger base. Money flow is moving higher as the stock tests back down; strong indication. Looking for that volume to return as IM rebounds off of this test.
Volume: 753.2K Avg Volume: 1.141M
BUY POINT: $20.62 Volume=1.3M Target=$23.95 Stop=$19.78
POSITION: IM FD - June $20c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/im.html
Play Date: 02/16/2006
LUK (Leucadia National--$52.52; +0.03; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/luk.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Tight, narrow, razor thin, tight (did we say that?) lateral move over the 18 day EMA (52.18), testing the strong late January breakout and run higher. Excellent action. It is ready to pop.
Volume: 228.4K Avg Volume: 277.842K
BUY POINT: $52.69 Volume=350K Target=$59.75 Stop=$51.75
POSITION: LUK FJ - June $50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/luk.html
Play Date: 02/07/2006
OVTI (Omnivision Technologies--$25.99; +0.14; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ovti.html
After Hours: $26
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. In an 18 day EMA (25.41) of its own, tapping at that level the past three sessions on the low and rebounding. Volume moved up to average Thursday, indicating OVTI is about ready to make the next move. Strong leader walking up the 18 day EMA after an early December breakout. Volume has moved higher the past week on this lateral move, indicating OVTI is ready to make its move.
Volume: 2.236M Avg Volume: 2.931M
BUY POINT: $26.05 Volume=3M Target=$30.88 Stop=$25.25
POSITION: UCM FE - June $25c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ovti.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, BRCM, CELG, COH, FFIV, GME, MRVL, NVDA, PSYS, UNH
PSYS: Nice low volume test of the 18 day EMA is setting up the continued move higher.
MRVL: Announced earnings after the close and was down near 60 before reversing and charging higher for a huge gain near 67.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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