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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
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THE PLAYS
Good movers: CTXS; RVSN; SNDK; LTR; OIS
Strong plays:
1) ALNY: Biotech moving higher on strong trade.
2) SMSI: Volume is strong as it resumes its breakout move.
3) TECH: Perennial leader ready for the breakout move.
4) BABY: Still ready to move.
5) RADS: Volume is moving higher as it readies for the breakout.
6) CDIS: Ready for the downside now.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 02/27/2006
ALNY (Alnylam Pharmaceuticals--$15.74; +1.02; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alny.html
After Hours: $15.81
STATUS: Ascending base. A sector of the market that is heating up, and ALNY, a new issue in June 2004, is heading for a new high on solid volume. Trade has kicked up the past two weeks as it moved off an early February test. A quick pause to end last week and then volume shot higher Monday as ALNY broke higher to a new high. Positive accumulation with money flow surging higher ahead of price. Relative strength broke out as well, a good indication of a solid breakout. Looking to move in as ALNY continues higher on some more solid trade.
Volume: 1.218M Avg Volume: 285.141K
BUY POINT: $15.89 Volume=335K Target=$19 Stop=$14.97
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/alny.html
Play Date: 02/27/2006
ARTC (Arthrocare--$45.86; +0.10; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/artc.html
STATUS: Test breakout. ARTC broke out from a 16 week reverse head and shoulders base in early January, then rallied up the 18 day EMA (45.33). A big surge in mid-February on earnings and then a gap lower that saw a furious intraday recovery. Wild action but ARTC then settled down the past week in a tight range on low volume above the 18 day EMA. That held the breakout and settled it down for the next move. Strong money flow is leading higher. After this lateral move it will be ready to continue the breakout run. Waiting for volume to kick back up as ARTC resumes the move.
Volume: 185.717K Avg Volume: 343.542K
BUY POINT: $46.34 Volume=500K Target=$53.95 Stop=$45.12
POSITION: ARU FI - June $45c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/artc.html
Play Date: 02/27/2006
SMSI (Smith Micro Software--$9.10; +0.65; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smsi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume has jumped as SMSI makes the move out of a 15 month base. It broke higher in late January on strong trade, then moved laterally the past three weeks on very low, below average volume. Volume jumped last Wednesday as SMSI gapped higher. It immediately tested, but then rebounded Monday on strong volume, moving off near support at the 18 day EMA (8.31). Strong fundamentals growth and an excellent pattern. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and relative strength is making the breakout with the stock. SMSI is ready to move higher.
Volume: 527.051K Avg Volume: 232.534K
BUY POINT: $9.29 Volume=300K Target=$11.25 Stop=$8.64
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/smsi.html
Play Date: 02/27/2006
TECH (Techne--$60.02; +0.52; optionable): Biotechnology. Researching to pinpoint the date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 11-9-00 at $105. Prior to that a 2:1 split on 10-23-97 at $40 (back when prices were not so inflated as in 2000).
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tech.html
STATUS: Ascending base. TECH got wild to end January when it announced earnings, but it held the pattern after a brief upset, building higher the past two weeks up tot the top of the range. Solid 24 week base built along the 50 day EMA (57.89), sporting positive accumulation and strong money flow. Top rated in fundamentals as well as technically. Tried to make the move Monday, rallying to 60.74 on the high before giving back a chunk of the gain. Looking for volume to come in as TECH continues back up and drives through the buy point.
Volume: 229.129K Avg Volume: 249.442K
BUY POINT: $60.57 Volume=374K Target=$71.88 Stop=$58.88
POSITION: TGQ GL - July $60c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tech.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 02/25/2006
BABY (Natus Medical--$19.10; +0.15; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/baby.html
STATUS: Ascending base. BABY was up Monday, but volume was not after a strong showing Friday and last week in general. Set up very nicely for the break higher. To recap: Volume surged last week as BABY butted up against the breakout from a 16 week base formed above the 50 day EMA (17.81). Made a higher low at that 50 day support here in February, setting up the breakout to a new all-time high. Outstanding 6 to 2 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows all buying, setting up the move to come. Super technical pattern, super growth in its sales and earnings.
Volume: 106.08K Avg Volume: 142.003K
BUY POINT: $19.25 Volume=213K Target=$23.12 Stop=$18.21
POSITION: QBU GW - July $17.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/baby.html
Play Date: 02/11/2006
CVD (Covance--$56.79; +0.18; optionable): Drug product development services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvd.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Tested the 18 day EMA (56.29) again on Monday and rebounded for a modest gain on lower, below average volume. Still set to resume the move higher after this test of near support. To recap: Broke out from a 20 week cup with handle base in January and surged to 58. It has since tested the 18 day EMA, rebounded on low trade, and then tested the 10 day EMA, all on low volume. Strong money flow and a market leader.
Volume: 332.4K Avg Volume: 423.411K
BUY POINT: New: $57.05 (orig. $56.11) Volume=643K Target=$64.95 Stop=$54.95
POSITION: CVD HK - Aug. $55c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvd.html
Play Date: 02/25/2006
PDLI (Protein Design Labs--$30.55; -0.34; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdli.html
After Hours: $31.25
STATUS: Ascending base. Gapped higher Monday on stronger trade, but could not hold the move, giving back fractionally on the close. Still solid in its pattern and trading nicely higher after hours on a solid earnings report. To recap: A solid shot of volume Friday as PDLI rallied toward the breakout from its 6 month base formed using the 50 day EMA (28.91) as support. That is the key level where institutions add to their positions; if they are still buyers a stock will hold at that level. That is what happened with PDLI. Its excellent 7 to 2 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows they have been buying during the consolidation. Ready for a new 4 year high. Solid across the board.
Volume: 1.79M Avg Volume: 1.296M
BUY POINT: $31.11 Volume=1.9M Target=$37.35 Stop=$29.24
POSITION: PQI HF - Aug. $30c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pdli.html
Play Date: 02/25/2006
RADS (Radian Systems--$14.67; +0.07; optionable): Site operations software for retail, food services businesses.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rads.html
After Hours: $14.65
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Volume moved up above average Monday as RADS gapped modestly higher and ran in place. Still set up nicely to make the next break higher, and this volume is how it will do that. To recap: RADS has formed a short 6 week triangle as it consolidates the January breakout from a 6.5 month base. As the market sold off RADS used the selling to set up for the next move. It has done just that, showing outstanding 7 to 0 accumulation. Strong money flow complements the accumulation. Relative strength is ready to breakout again as well, a sign of continued strength. Strong technically and strong fundamentally as well.
Volume: 388.917K Avg Volume: 330.732K
BUY POINT: $14.89 Volume=496K Target=$17.95 Stop=$13.98
POSITION: QRC GC - July $15c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rads.html
Play Date: 02/08/2006
VTIV (Ventiv Health--$28.03; +0.72; optionable): Outsourced sales, marketing solutions for pharma, biotech, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vtiv.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Raced higher again Monday on lower but still above average volume, hitting 28.50 on the high. It gave back a chunk of the move so we decided to hold off and see if it fades a bit more before resuming the move. A bit better entry point on a very solid pattern. To recap: Volume finally jumped Friday as VTIV tapped the 50 day EMA (25.98) on the low and then surged toward the breakout from its 20 week base. Strong money flow is surging ahead of price and VTIV is ready to follow it higher with the strength of the Friday move. A breakout takes VTIV to a new all-time high. Huge 6 to 1 accumulation has set up the breakout move.
Volume: 256.962K Avg Volume: 307.971K
BUY POINT: New: A further test toward $27.85, then 28.08 on the rebound. Volume=614K Target=$32.65 Stop=$26.28
POSITION: QBP GY - July $27.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vtiv.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/21/2006
CDIS (Cal Dive--$35.80; -0.95; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cdis.html
After Hours: $35.80
STATUS: Head and shoulders. CDIS tried to rally once more, gapping higher Friday and close just below the 18 day EMA (37.07). Higher oil on global issues helped; Monday those issues reversed and CDIS was back down. It is trying to hold, but with the diving money flow and very weak price pattern it is ready to fall.
Volume: 1.264M Avg Volume: 1.601M
BUY POINT: New: $35.69 (orig. $35.95) Volume=1.8M Target=$33.69 Stop=$36.72
POSITION: KPQ OU - Mar. $37.50p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cdis.html
Play Date: 02/22/2006
PDS (Precision Drilling--$31.56; -0.13; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pds.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. PDS continues to hold at the 10 day EMA (31.60) as it moves below the 50 day EMA (32.13). Still a weak pattern, ready to roll over at this resistance and make a lower high, continuing the start of the downtrend. To recap: PDS double topped in January, the second top on low volume. It broke down this month, falling through the 50 day EMA and then spent the past week building back up to that level. Looking for PDS to fail here and want to see some volume as it does. A move to the target lands us a 49%ish gain.
Volume: 526.6K Avg Volume: 544.813K
BUY POINT: $31.48 Volume=550K Target=$30 Stop=$31.75
POSITION: PDS PF - Apr. $30p (-33 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pds.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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