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Begin part 2 of 2
We apologize for the tardy delivery. Technical difficulties.
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ALNY; BABY
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 02/28/2006
ATHR (Atheros Communications--$20.58; +0.07; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/athr.html
After Hours: $20.54
STATUS: Flying plateau. This is the leading sub-sector in semiconductors, and ATHR is a market leader. It broke out from a 10 month base in December and has rallied well. It surged on strong earnings to end January and into February, and has spent the past two weeks working laterally above the 10 day EMA (20.06) on mostly lower, below average volume. The range has tightened up the past week as ATHR holds its gains in the market selling. Money flow is rallying higher ahead of price and we are looking for volume to break back above average as ATHR breaks higher out of this range. Strong fundamentals.
Volume: 748.858K Avg Volume: 1.046M
BUY POINT: $21.45 Volume=1.4M Target=$25.95 Stop=$19.95
POSITION: QRA FD - June $20c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/athr.html
Play Date: 02/28/2006
WITS (Witness Systems--$23.43; -0.48; optionable): Contact center worldwide
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wits.html
STATUS: Breakout test. WITS blasted out of a 16 week flat base to start February, rallying to 24.59 on the high. It peaked out last week and started to faded back this week, heading toward the 18 day EMA (23.24) Tuesday. It is likely to hit that level and then make its next bounce higher. Excellent 7 to 2 accumulation in the base (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a lot of buying. Nice breakout to a new 6 year high and this test is re-setting the breakout move for the next leg.
Volume: 292.145K Avg Volume: 416.835K
BUY POINT: $23.94 Volume=550K Target=$27.74 Stop=$23.02
POSITION: UPJ FX - June $22.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wits.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/28/2006
XXIA (Ixia--$12.06; -0.56; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xxia.html
STATUS: Put. This is one of the chip sector sub-sectors that is not performing well. We played XXIA in 2005 on the upside and had good success. It peaked out midyear and has trended lower since. It just came up to test the 50 day EMA (12.97) and failed. Tuesday it was selling on stronger, above average volume, starting its next leg lower. A move to our initial target lands us a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 1.01M Avg Volume: 775K
BUY POINT: $11.98 Volume=75K Target=$10.96 Stop=$12.28
POSITION: UJC PV - Apr. $12.50p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xxia.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
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http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACN 12/14 Test 18 32.66 -0.28 29.22 33.95 1.7M 2.7M 31.75
ALNY 02/27 Test BO 16.08 +0.34 16.06 19.15 570K 335K 15.21
Entered today.
AQNT 02/23 Test 50 26.59 -1.38 28.11 33.75 2.7M 1.8M 26.25
Buy Not Issued. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back to hold the 10 day MVA on very strong volume surge. Still in the pattern.
ARTC 02/27 Test BO 45.17 -0.69 46.34 53.95 286K 500K 45.12
Buy Not Hit. Pullback holding the 18 day MVA on rising, volume. Testing the breakout. Should hold here.
AXE 02/09 Test 18 45.75 -1.25 47.32 54.45 260K 424K 45.32
BABY 02/25 Asc Bse 19.96 +0.86 19.94 23.82 297K 213K 18.74
Entered today. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and exploded higher on excellent volume surge.
BMRN 02/18 Cup hdl 13.08 +0.07 12.75 15.25 651K 700K 11.92
Current. Tapped 12.69 at the intraday low and rallied back on stronger above average volume. Continue with the uptrend.
CTXS 01/25 Test BO 32.36 +0.22 31.05 36.95 2.8M 3M 30.95
Current. Moving up on rising volume after testing the 18 day MVA.
CTXS 01/04 Test BO 32.36 +0.22 30.05 35.95 2.8M 2.2M 30.95
Current.
CVD 02/11 Test BO 56.45 -0.34 56.11 64.95 252K 643K 54.95
Buy Not Issued.
CYMI 02/06 Test BO 44.98 +0.22 48.35 57.95 523K 1.2M 45.89
Buy Not Issued.
CYMI 01/21 Test BO 44.98 +0.22 41.35 47.95 523K 1M 47.55
Current. Tapped 44.03 at the intraday low and rallied back on low volume. Moving up after testing the breakout.
DIOD 02/22 Asc Bse 37.78 -0.74 38.25 45.88 222K 550K 36.75
Current. Tapped 39.39 at the intraday high, but gave it back to hold the 10 day MVA on low volume. Should be ready to bounce from here.
DTAS 01/23 Test 50 14.11 -0.28 13.91 16.77 631K 1.2M 13.97
Current. Pullback tapping 13.94 at the intraday low and rallied back on low volume. May continue to test back to 10 day MVA (14).
EZPW 02/11 FlyPlat 21.63 -0.14 22.22 26.75 69K 267K 20.68
Buy Not Issued. Ease back on low volume holding below the 10 day MVA. Still in the pattern.
FORM 01/30 Test BO 36.84 +0.2 30.32 36.25 959K 627K 37
Current. Ease back on low volume holding below the 10 day MVA. Still in the pattern.
FSL 02/13 DB hdl 26.89 +0.07 28.37 33.18 1.8M 2.5M 27.22
Current. Tested the 50 day MVA intraday and rallied back to hold the 10 day MVA on rising volume. Second attempt to break through the 10 day MVA.
GS 02/13 Test 18 141.29 -2.53 140.88 152 3.9M 4.4M 42.98
Current. Pullback holding below the 18 day MVA on much stronger volume. May continue to test back to support at 140.81
HOLX 02/21 FlyPlat 47.83 -0.93 52.38 62 567K 1.1M 49.54
Buy Not Hit. Pullback below the 18 day MVA on low volume. May continue to test back to support at 47.50. Will need to hold here.
HOLX 12/19 DB hdl 47.83 -0.93 39.33 45.85 567K 1.2M 49.89
Trailing Stop.
ISE 02/21 Test 18 42.21 -1.4 40.33 48 424K 869K 41.88
Current.
MER 02/14 Test BO 77.21 -0.67 74.45 84.85 5.2M 6.5M 76
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on above average volume. Still in uptrend.
MGI 02/22 DB hdl 28.67 -0.06 28.69 33.98 434K 550K 27.55
Current. Pullback showing a doji on much stronger above average volume. Doji may indicate stock is ready to test the breakout.
MSTR 01/14 Test BO 91.68 -3.18 96.72 111 225K 493K 96.98
Current. Gapped down and continued to move down below the 18 day MVA on below average volume. May continue to test back to support at simple 50 day MVA (90.84)
MSTR 11/15 DB hdl 91.68 -3.18 81.22 91.25 225K 612K 96.98
Current.
MYOG 02/15 Flat 37.9 -2.06 39.68 47.75 1.7M 1.8M 37.21
Buy Not Issued. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep an eye on it.
NOVL 02/04 Test BO 9.51 -0.13 9.42 11.72 4M 7M 9.34
Current.
NOVL 01/24 Flat 9.51 -0.13 9.36 11.29 4M 6M 9.34
Current.
OII 02/23 Test 50 55.14 -1.1 58.25 69.95 450K 374K 55.55
Buy Not Issued. The stock has not performed so will drop.
OXPS 02/22 Asc Bse 30.78 -0.24 31.55 37.85 1.5M 1.5M 29.92
Current.
PDLI 02/25 Asc Bse 31.31 +0.76 31.11 37.35 3.5M 1.9M 29.24
Buy Not Issued.
PKE 02/25 Test BO 28.87 -0.06 29.62 35.55 127K 185K 28.31
Buy Not Hit.
RADS 02/25 Asc Tri 14.28 -0.39 14.89 17.95 291K 496K 13.98
Buy Not Issued. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back to hold the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Should be ready to rebound from here.
RSTI 02/18 FlyPlat 52.68 -0.54 51.95 59.95 161K 173K 51.38
Current. Pullback on stronger above average volume. May test back to support at 52. Still in uptrend.
RVSN 02/14 Test BO 20.05 -0.75 20.78 24.88 308K 500K 19.89
Current.
RVSN 01/07 Test 18 20.05 -0.75 17.45 20.95 308K 471K 19.89
Current.
SIRF 02/18 Test BO 37.43 +0.63 36.68 43.94 1.9M 1.8M 36.48
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Came off the day's high of 38.70
SMSI 02/27 Test BO 8.97 -0.13 9.29 11.25 416K 300K 8.64
Buy Not Hit.
SNDK 01/14 Test BO 60.34 -0.74 73.72 89.45 14M 21M 71.55
Current.
SNDK 12/20 DB hdl 60.34 -0.74 60.69 72.38 14M 20M 71.55
Current. Rallied thru the 50 day EMA (61.82) on the high but
then gave it back after that strong Monday upgrade
session. Lower volume, but has to hold near 60 & recover
& hold the 50 day MA on the close.
SURG 02/13 Test BO 6.01 -0.66 7.42 8.94 581K 201K 7.08
Exited.
SURG 02/04 Cup hdl 6.01 -0.66 6.58 8.25 581K 225K 7.01
Exited.
TECH 02/27 PreAnn 59.47 -0.55 60.57 71.88 165K 374K 58.88
Buy Not Hit. Ease back tapping 58.61 at the intraday low and rallied back on low volume. Still in the pattern.
TKC 02/15 FlyPlat 17.99 -0.81 18.55 22.25 369K 635K 18.39
Current. Sold back on rising trade but was rebounding off the
lows & trying to hold the 18 day EMA (18.07). Needs
to continue the rebound Wednesday to recover that near
support.
TRID 02/06 Test 18 27.94 0 26.22 31.72 1.6M 2.5M 26.35
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on rising, but average volume. Beginning to make a lateral move holding the gain.
USG 02/11 Test BO 84.48 -2.03 87.75 99.95 648K 1.5M 85.85
Buy Not Issued. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
VAR 01/11 Test 50 57.88 -1.26 53.32 61.35 1.2M 1.2M 58
Trailing Stop.
VTAL 02/01 Test BO 33.2 -0.65 29.82 34.45 193K 203K 33.31
Current.
VTIV 02/08 Cup hdl 27.86 -0.17 27.85 32.65 271K 614K 26.28
Buy Not Issued. Gapped down to hold the 10 day MVA on rising, but average volume. Still forming the handle. If stock makes its breakaway move tomorrow on strong volume will be a buy.
WBSN 01/30 Dbl btm 61.81 -0.47 66.45 75.55 444K 750K 65.75
Current. After failing to take out the 50 day EMA Monday, WBSN
sold to 60.87 but then rebounded to hold the 10 day
EMA. Letting it make one more try at the 50 day after
that rebound.
ZIGO 02/15 Test BO 17.19 -0.55 18.15 21.82 262K 200K 17.41
Current.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
CDIS 02/21 Put 35.21 -0.59 35.95 33.95 1.1M 1.8M 36.72
Buy Not Issued. Volume not there to enter the play. Will let stock make relief bounce.
LTR 02/25 Put 92.26 -0.26 93.15 90.85 1.2M 600K 92.65
Current. Moving down the 10 day MVA on lower, but strong volume. Came off the day's low of 91.26. Meeting some support at 92.
NDE 02/13 Put 38.82 -0.23 38.78 36.55 395K 775K 39.45
Buy Not Issued. Moving down holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Needs to break through support here.
OIS 02/14 Put 34.53 -0.47 35.55 33.75 854K 775K 34.95 Current.
PDS 02/22 Put 31.49 -0.07 31.48 30 432K 550K 31.75
Buy Not Issued. Showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on average volume. Will be a buy on continued move down with strong volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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