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trend trading stock, trading system
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BMRN; CBST; DO; ZIGO
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 03/02/2006
WFT (Weatherford International--$44.64; +1.50; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wft.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume punched up to just above average Tuesday and Thursday as WFT reached lower and recovered and then started the break higher. Strong money flow is leading the way higher as WFT moves for a new all-time high. WFT rallied nicely from its breakout in December and needed a breather. The current 7 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (41.10) at the 'head', a good place for WFT to find support. Looks ready to make the all-time high.
Volume: 3.571M Avg Volume: 3.539M
BUY POINT: $44.89 Volume=5M Target=$51.95 Stop=$42.64
POSITION: WFT HI - Aug. $45c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wft.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 02/06/2006
CYMI (Cymer--$46.1; -0.75; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cymi.html
After Hours: $46.14
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Strong breakout in mid-January sent CYMI to 50. It spent the past four weeks easing back to test that move, holding above the 50 day EMA (43.45) Monday, tapping at it intraday and rebounding. Volume jumped Wednesday as CYMI blasted higher. It took the day off Thursday on lower, below average volume, holding the 10 day EMA at the close. Money flow is leading higher. Ready to continue after this pause. Strong leader in the market.
Volume: 719.271K Avg Volume: 793.087K
BUY POINT: $47.12 Volume=1.2M Target=$57.95 Stop=$45.22
POSITION: CQG EH - May $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cymi.html
Play Date: 03/01/2006
MCHP (Microchip--$36.52; +0.42; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mchp.html
After Hours: $36.51
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. A neat little double bottom has formed the past five weeks, using the 50 day EMA (35.18) as support for the second leg made this past week. MCHP bounced Wednesday and continued Thursday with rising though still below average volume. Money flow is leading higher and MCHP looks ready to follow it. To recap: One of the top rated semiconductors making a test of the 50 day EMA after the mid-January breakout from its 6.5 month base on base pattern. Money flow is running higher ahead of the price as it rebounds. Volume was not rallying with MCHP on Wednesday, something we want to change as it continues higher off this key support. Top rated semiconductor.
Volume: 1.297M Avg Volume: 1.65M
BUY POINT: $36.78 Volume=2.2M Target=$42.95 Stop=$34.89
POSITION: QMT GG - July $35c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mchp.html
Play Date: 03/01/2006
SLAB (Silicon Labs--$49.90; -0.41; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slab.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Took a breather Thursday, showing a tight doji as volume fell back below average. This gives it a nice pause to regroup and set the entry point a bit better. To recap: SLAB gapped higher in late January on a strong earnings prognosis. It rallied to 52.50 and then faded back the past 5 weeks to test the move and fill most of the gap. It held mostly near the 18 day EMA (47.58), testing toward the 50 day EMA (44.59) on an intraday basis and then rebounding. Strong money flow continues to lead higher. Accumulation is positive. Volume jumped back above average Wednesday for the first time in three weeks. Looking to move in on a continued move higher on solid volume.
Volume: 1.054M Avg Volume: 1.216M
BUY POINT: $50.76 Volume=1.8M Target=$60.95 Stop=$47.68
POSITION: QFJ GJ - July $50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slab.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACN 12/14 Test 18 32.6 -0.03 29.22 33.95 2.8M 2.7M 31.75
Pullback tapping 31.90 at the intraday low and rallied back showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on lower, but strong volume. Should be ready to bounce from here.
ALNY 02/27 Test BO 16.23 -0.06 16.06 19.15 425K 335K 15.21
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back tapping 15.55 at the intraday low and rallied back on lower, but above average volume. still in uptrend.
AQNT 02/23 Test 50 24.96 -1.29 28.11 33.75 2.4M 1.8M 26.25
Buy Not Issued. The stock has not performed so will drop.
ARTC 02/27 Test BO 46.89 +0.14 46.34 53.95 198K 500K 45.12
Buy Not Issued. Low volume ascent. Will let test back.
ATHR 02/28 FlyPlat 23.11 +0.01 21.98 26.45 1.7M 1.4M 21.88
Current. Catching a breath from yesterday's great move.
AXE 02/09 Test 18 46 -0.29 47.32 54.45 163K 424K 45.32
Pullback on low volume tapping 45.52 at the intraday low. Should continue to rebound after testing the 18 day MVA.
BABY 02/25 Asc Bse 20.18 +0.18 19.94 23.82 87K 213K 19.05
Current. Continue with uptrend on low volume.
BMRN 02/18 Cup hdl 13.51 +0.37 12.75 15.25 440K 700K 12.57
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on average volume making a 52 week high.
CBST 03/01 Flat 24.22 +0.49 23.95 28.75 2.6M 750K 22.88
Entered today. Gapped down at the open and rallied back for a great move on excellent volume surge.
CTXS 01/25 Test BO 32.84 +0.02 31.05 36.95 1.7M 3M 31.55
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower volume after testing the 50 day MVA.
CTXS 01/04 Test BO 32.84 +0.02 30.05 35.95 1.7M 2.2M 31.55
Current.
CYMI 02/06 Test 50 46.1 -0.75 47.12 57.95 719K 1.2M 45.22
Buy Not Issued.
CYMI 01/21 Test BO 46.1 -0.75 41.35 47.95 719K 1M 47.55
Current. Pullback holding the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Moving up after testing the breakout.
DIOD 02/22 Asc Bse 39.85 +0.67 38.25 45.88 218K 550K 38.12
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on rising, but low volume.
DO 03/01 Dbl btm 82.32 +1.94 82.88 97 3.7M 3M 78.81
Entered today. Gapped up at the open for a nice gain tapping 83.45 at the intraday high, but gave some of it back on strong volume surge. Looking for stock to continue to trend higher.
DTAS 01/23 Test 50 14.13 -0.1 13.91 16.77 566K 1.2M 13.97
Current. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back to hold the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. May continue to test back to support at 14.
EZPW 02/11 FlyPlat 23.39 +0.16 23.27 27.75 104K 267K 21.92
Current. Tapped 22.61 at the intraday low and rallied back on low volume. Continue with uptrend.
FORM 01/30 Test BO 40.11 -0.59 30.32 36.25 1.1M 627K 39.21
Current. Tapped 41.99 at the intraday high, but gave it back on stronger above average volume. Still in uptrend.
FSL 02/13 DB hdl 27.76 -0.07 28.37 33.18 1.4M 2.5M 27.22
Current. Pullback on low volume. Moving up after testing the 50 day MVA. Meeting some resistance at 28.
GS 02/13 Test 18 144 +0.85 140.88 152 2.9M 4.4M 142.98
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on below average volume. Meeting some resistance at 145.
ISE 02/21 Test 18 43.1 +1.04 40.33 48 460K 869K 41.88
Current. Tapped 40.84 at the intraday low and rallied back for a nice gain on rising, but average volume. Continue to trend higher.
MCHP 03/01 Test 50 36.52 +0.42 36.78 42.95 1.3M 2.2M 34.89
Buy Not Hit. Moving up on rising volume after testing the 50 day MVA. Still in the pattern
MER 02/14 Test BO 77.68 +0.14 74.45 84.85 4.1M 6.5M 76
Current. Meeting some resistance at 78.
MGI 02/22 DB hdl 28.58 -0.42 28.69 33.98 249K 550K 27.83
Current. Pullback on rising, but below average volume. May continue to test back to 10 day MVA (28.42)
MSTR 01/14 Test BO 98.45 -0.3 96.72 111 561K 493K 96.98
Current. Tapped 102.69 at the intraday high, but gave it back showing a tight doji on lower, but strong volume. Still in uptrend.
MSTR 11/15 DB hdl 98.45 -0.3 81.22 91.25 561K 612K 96.98
Current.
NOVL 02/04 Test BO 9.53 -0.23 9.42 11.72 7.8M 7M 9.34
Current.
NOVL 01/24 Flat 9.53 -0.23 9.36 11.29 7.8M 6M 9.34
Current. Trading at 50 day EMA after hours on earnings that
were lower when you ex out a legal gain. Will gap lower
at the open; if cannot retake 50 day EMA (9.14) quickly
we will close it.
NSM 03/01 Asc Bse 29.69 +0.22 29.28 34.55 7.8M 6.5M 27.87
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA o n stronger above average volume.
NURO 02/28 Cup hdl 39.19 +0.59 38.65 45.55 314K 352K 36.44
Current. Continue to trend higher on lower, but strong volume.
OXPS 02/22 Asc Bse 31.07 +0.49 31.55 37.85 866K 1.5M 30.09
Current. Tapped 29.97 at the intraday low and rallied back on lower below average volume. Moving up after testing the 10 day MVA.
PKE 02/25 Test BO 29.38 +0.13 29.62 35.55 106K 185K 28.31
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on rising volume. Still in the pattern.
RADS 02/25 Asc Tri 14.68 -0.17 14.89 17.95 193K 496K 13.98
Buy Not Issued. Ease back on low volume. Need to see the breakaway move on strong volume.
RSTI 02/18 FlyPlat 52.81 +0.35 51.95 59.95 202K 173K 51.78
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on strong volume surge. Continue with uptrend.
RVSN 02/14 Test BO 20.34 -0.04 20.78 24.88 219K 500K 19.89
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a tight doji on rising, but below average volume. Meeting some resistance here.
RVSN 01/07 Test 18 20.34 -0.04 17.45 20.95 219K 471K 19.89
Current.
SIRF 02/18 Test BO 39.55 -1.36 36.68 43.94 1.8M 1.8M 38.48
Current. Tapped 42.50 at the intraday high, but gave it all back on lower, but strong volume. May continue to test back to 10 day MVA (38)
SLAB 03/01 Test BO 49.9 -0.41 50.76 60.95 1.1M 1.8M 47.68
Buy Not Issued. Pullback on lower below average volume. Still in the pattern. Need to see a clear and decisive move on strong volume.
SMSI 02/27 Test BO 9.04 +0.05 9.29 11.25 131K 300K 8.64
Buy Not Hit. Beginning to make a lateral move on low volume. 10 day MVA moving up to meet the stock.
SNDK 01/14 Test BO 61.2 -0.57 73.72 89.45 8M 21M 71.55
Current. Tapped 62.50 at the intraday high, but gave it back showing a tight doji just above the 18 day MVA on low volume. Consolidating before it makes its next move.
SNDK 12/20 DB hdl 61.2 -0.57 60.69 72.38 8M 20M 71.55
Current.
TECH 02/27 PreAnn 59.54 -0.51 60.57 71.88 108K 374K 58.88
Buy Not Hit. Pullback tapping 59.10 at the intraday low and rallied back on low volume. Meeting resistance at 60.
TKC 02/15 FlyPlat 18.3 +0.05 18.55 22.25 318K 635K 18.39
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on average volume. Moving up after testing the 18 day MVA. Meeting some resistance at 19.
TRID 02/06 Test 18 28.58 -0.54 26.22 31.72 1.4M 2.5M 26.68
Current. Pullback on lower below average volume. Still in uptrend.
VTAL 02/01 Test BO 32.23 -1.03 29.82 34.45 144K 203K 33.31
Trailing Stop.
VTIV 02/08 Cup hdl 28.09 -0.14 27.85 32.65 194K 614K 26.28
Buy Not Issued. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on average volume. Volume was not there to enter the play. Needed to see a clear and decisive move. Will let test back.
WBSN 01/30 Dbl btm 62.07 -0.59 66.45 75.55 418K 750K 65.75
Current. Pullback holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Should be ready to bounce from here.
WITS 02/28 Test BO 23.13 -1.18 23.94 27.74 376K 550K 23.02
Buy Not Issued. Stock has not performed so will drop.
ZIGO 02/15 Test BO 18.03 +0.3 18.15 21.82 160K 200K 17.41
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back for a nice gain on lower below average volume. Moving up after testing the 50 day MVA.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
LTR 02/25 Put 94.62 +0.63 93.15 90.85 1.2M 600K 92.65
Current. Continue to rally on strong volume. May test up to the 18 day MVA (95.30).
NDE 02/13 Put 38.87 -0.33 38.78 36.55 1.1M 775K 39.45
Buy Not Issued. Nice move down holding the 10 day MVA on strong volume surge. Needs to break through support here.
OIS 02/14 Put 35.6 +0.15 35.55 33.75 618K 775K 34.95
Current. Bounced tapping the 18 day MVA (36.10)at the intraday high, but could not hold the entire gain. Holding at 10 day MVA. Should turnover here.
PDS 02/22 Put 31.74 +0.17 31.48 30 537K 550K 31.75
Current. Showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on average volume. May test up to 18 day MVA (32). Still in downtrend.
XXIA 02/28 Put 12 -0.05 11.98 10.96 599K 75K 12.28
Buy Not Hit. Meeting some support here.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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