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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: CELG; GG; TALX; WIRE; SLB
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 03/02/2006
APC (Anadarko Petroleum--$101.73; +2.75; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Splits 2:1 on 5-30-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apc.html
After Hours: $101.95
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. As with many energy stocks, APC has formed a short double bottom pattern around the 50 day EMA (110.10), rallying Thursday on a strong shot of volume. Double bottoms are known for their up and down action, and this is no exception. Nice low volume fade the past two weeks has set up the move. Want to see continued strong trade as APC continues the move. Funny thing; APC does have oil production, but it is known as a natural gas company and natural gas is not heading higher right now.
Volume: 3.48M Avg Volume: 2.571M
BUY POINT: $102.89 Volume=3M Target=$118 Stop=$99.72
POSITION: APC EA - May $105c (49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apc.html
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 03/02/2006
OPLK (Oplink Communications--$17.37; -0.32; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oplk.html
STATUS: Ascending base. OPLK split in November and ran right through, rallying up to 17.90 on a 7 point run. It needed a breather after that and it has formed the current 6 week pattern, using the 50 day EMA (15.89) to make two higher lows as it butts its head up against the top of the pattern at 18. Solid 3 to 0 accumulation in the base (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows all buyers as OPLK sets up for a breakout to a 2 year high. This little pattern is part of a larger 2 year cup with handle base. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price, paving the way for OPLK to follow.
Volume: 167.897K Avg Volume: 171.789K
BUY POINT: $17.87 Volume=258K Target=$21.55 Stop=$16.62
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/oplk.html
Play Date: 03/02/2006
WFT (Weatherford International--$44.64; +1.50; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wft.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume punched up to just above average Tuesday and Thursday as WFT reached lower and recovered and then started the break higher. Strong money flow is leading the way higher as WFT moves for a new all-time high. WFT rallied nicely from its breakout in December and needed a breather. The current 7 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (41.10) at the 'head', a good place for WFT to find support. Looks ready to make the all-time high.
Volume: 3.571M Avg Volume: 3.539M
BUY POINT: $44.89 Volume=5M Target=$51.95 Stop=$42.64
POSITION: WFT HI - Aug. $45c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wft.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Lots of stocks still in position for split announcements. We have some good information on many though some are wild cards, i.e. no split history but hearing word of a possible split announcement. All are good leadership quality stocks that can make us money if they show us the breakout moves.
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ANF: Potentially forecast for May. Dove lower on its February sales.
ANN: Forecast 3-10-06
BLUD: Researching date.
CEPH: Just announced earnings in February, but really like its pattern.
CLZR: Researching date.
CRDN: No split on 2-28-06 but nice earnings drove it higher.
CTSH: Looking for a mid-April announcement.
DBRN: Could give us the announcement on 3-1-06. No announcement and is fading back to test the 50 day EMA on the February sales numbers.
DRI: Forecast 3-20-06. Fading back, closing below the 18 day EMA. Will see if it tests the 50 day EMA and gives us a new entry point there.
FRK: Forecast 4-25-06 after the close or 5-3-06
GG: Forecast 3-10-06. Nice break higher.
GS: Forecast 3-16-06 before the open.
IEX: Tentatively forecast for third week of April.
IRM: Forecast 3-1-06. No announcement, just holding the 18 day EMA. Still a good pattern but need to see it move.
ITG: Forecast first week of March.
JEC: Forecast 4-25-06
LM: Researching to pinpoint a date. Right now it looks like late April.
ODP: No split announcement in late January. ODP continues to move higher above the 10 day EMA on stronger volume.
PNRA: Forecast 4-12-06
POOL: No announcement with earnings on 2-16-06. Making a nice test of its strong surge.
RARE: Tentatively forecast for 4-26-06
VMC: Tentatively set for late April
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/02/2006
CNQ (Canadian Natural Resources--$60.26; +3.04; optionable): Oil and gas. Forecast 3-16-06
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 3-17-05 at $58. Prior to that a 2:1 split on 2-25-04 at $49.90.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnq.html
After Hours: $60.24
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. As with many energy stocks of late, CNQ has formed a short double bottom with handle base around the 50 day EMA (54.83), consolidating the strong January rally higher. It broke out from a 15 week base in December, setting up that run. After the second test of the 50 day to end January, CNQ has started higher with a solid volume surge. Looking to start positions on the next move higher and then again on a test.
Volume: 2.029M Avg Volume: 1.227M
BUY POINT: $60.78 Volume=1.5M Target=$69.95 Stop=$57.45
POSITION: CNQ FL - June $60c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cnq.html
Play Date: 03/02/2006
MATR (Matria Healthcare--$44.50; +0.93; optionable): Home health care. Researching next date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split in 1-6-05 at $37.30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/matr.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. After a mid-December breakout from a 12 week base, MATR rallied up the 18 day EMA (43.31) to 45 and then started the current lateral move as the 18 day EMA pushes up on it from below. Low volume shows no selling, and the tight lateral range shows its strength as it refuses to give up the gains. Thursday price jumped but volume did not. Looking for the volume to kick in as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 140.905K Avg Volume: 196.364K
BUY POINT: $45.11 Volume=295K Target=$52.55 Stop=$42.92
POSITION: PQT FI - June $45c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/matr.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 02/23/2006
FRK (Florida Rock--$58.61; -0.02; optionable): Cement. Still researching an exact date.
BACKGROUND: Frequent splits. Last announced a 3:2 split on 5-4-05 at $59.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Forming a handle the past week after the stronger volume move to start last week. Nice lower volume test back to the 10 day EMA (57.94), but it is likely to test another day or two before it is ready for the new break higher. To recap: Working on the right side of a 19 week base, starting the move in late January on strong trade. Big upside volume sessions have punctuated upside surges on this run. Forming the handle and our buy is when it clears that consolidation. Excellent 9 to 3 accumulation in the base shows a lot of buying, complementing the surging money flow.
Volume: 237.9K Avg Volume: 645.238K
BUY POINT: $59.75 Volume=850K Target=$71.75 Stop=$57.05
POSITION: FRK IL - Sept. $60c (52 delta) &.or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/frk.html
Play Date: 02/23/2006
IEX (Idex--$47.14; -0.12; optionable): Engineered industrial products.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 4-22-04 at $44.80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iex.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Coming back to the 10 day EMA (47.00) the past week after that strong volume bounce last week. It is setting up our entry point nicely. To recap: IEX is just coming off of its late January earnings announcement that helped break it out from its 18 week base. This is its second test of that breakout, holding the 18 day EMA on each test. A strong stock will power up that support and IEX is doing that, showing a big doji last Wednesday and a strong surge Thursday, both sessions on strong volume. Ready to start the play with a partial position as it continues higher and then will add on the next test. Strong fundamentals to go along with its great pattern.
Volume: 109.6K Avg Volume: 190.436K
BUY POINT: $48.05 Volume=200K Target=$55.35 Stop=$46.36
POSITION: IEX GI - July $45c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/iex.html
Play Date: 03/01/2006
SLAB (Silicon Labs--$49.9; -0.41; optionable): Semiconductors. Researching to pinpoint the date.
BACKGROUND: A new issue in 2000, SLAB has yet to split its stock.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slab.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Took a breather Thursday, showing a tight doji as volume fell back below average. This gives it a nice pause to regroup and set the entry point a bit better. To recap: SLAB gapped higher in late January on a strong earnings prognosis. It rallied to 52.50 and then faded back the past 5 weeks to test the move and fill most of the gap. It held mostly near the 18 day EMA (47.58), testing toward the 50 day EMA (44.59) on an intraday basis and then rebounding. Strong money flow continues to lead higher. Accumulation is positive. Volume jumped back above average Wednesday for the first time in three weeks. Looking to move in on a continued move higher on solid volume.
Volume: 1.054M Avg Volume: 1.216M
BUY POINT: $50.76 Volume=1.8M Target=$60.95 Stop=$47.68
POSITION: QFJ GJ - July $50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slab.html
Play Date: 02/23/2006
VMC (Vulcan Materials--$79.93; -0.12; optionable): Building materials. Announced earnings to start February. Researching to pinpoint the date.
BACKGROUND: Last split 3:1 on 3-11-99 at $135. The ratio is right for a 2:1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vmc.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume popped to average Tuesday and Thursday as VMC bumps its head against the breakout point from its four week lateral move above the 10 day EMA (79.11). Money flow continues to lead higher; expecting VMC to follow it. To recap: Announced a dividend and stock buy back with earnings so VMC may not be in the market for a split right now, but its pattern is super. VMC is moving laterally above the 10 day EMA as that near support moved up to the stock after its big break higher to start the month. Great earnings helped propel VMC to the breakout from its 16 week base that formed along the 50 day EMA (74.49) and sporting strong 5 to 2 accumulation. Money flow is strong and moving higher. Volume is great, showing strong sessions on upside gains. Looking to move in as it breaks through near resistance on some rising, above average volume. A solid leader with great fundamentals as well.
Volume: 569.5K Avg Volume: 564.96K
BUY POINT: $80.11 Volume=800K Target=$92 Stop=$77.45
POSITION: VMC HP - Aug. $80c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vmc.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/11/2006
COH (Coach--$36.24; +0.36; optionable): Handbags, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
After Hours: $36.22
STATUS: Ascending triangle. COH continues to work laterally on mostly low, below average volume, holding above the 50 day EMA (35.11). This slow, boring action is weeding out the sellers; once they are gone the stock can make the break higher. Thursday it tapped at the 50 day on the low and rebounded to post a gain. Volume rallied higher as well, but it was still below average. Improving, but just have to be patient and let it make the breakout move that we can enter on.
Volume: 2.357M Avg Volume: 2.601M
BUY POINT: $36.88 Volume=4.1M Target=$42.95 Stop=$35.15
POSITION: COH EG - May $35c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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