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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
We apologize for the tardy delivery of part 3. A water pipe from the office above ours broke and we had to find higher ground. Time to find a new office lease.
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ATHR; CBST; EZPW; ISE; LTR; OIS; PDS
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 03/07/2006
TRID (Trident Microsystems--$27.35; -0.81; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trid.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. TRID is making its third test of the 18 day EMA (27.24) after a 50 day EMA test (24.60) in late December. That test followed a strong breakout earlier that month that got caught in the market selling. It didn't lose any momentum and started this run. It has at least 2 more moves off the short term moving averages, and we are looking for it to hold this level and rebound on strong volume. Volume did jump up toward average Tuesday as it undercut the 18 day EMA but then rebounded to hold it. That shows some buyers stepping in on the test.
Volume: 1.662M Avg Volume: 1.705M
BUY POINT: $28.11 Volume=2M Target=$33.75 Stop=$26.85
POSITION: HVU GE - July $25c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/trid.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 03/04/2006
MER (Merrill Lynch--$77.21; -0.03; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mer.html
After Hours: $77.20
STATUS: Flying plateau. Nice doji that tapped the 18 day EMA (76.28) on the low and rebounded to close flat on rising, average volume. Looks like a good shakeout and ready to move in.
Volume: 4.764M Avg Volume: 4.55M
BUY POINT: $77.55 Volume=6.5M Target=$88.95 Stop=$76.39
POSITION: MER GP - July $80c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mer.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 03/04/2006
ORCC (Online Resources--$13.18; +0.13; no options): Outsourced internet financial technology services to financial service providers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orcc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up to average Tuesday as ORCC held the 18 day EMA (12.93) on the low and rebounded. Held up extremely well in the selling. Looks good. To recap: ORCC has formed a short but nice 6 week base on top of the 50 day EMA (12.60), this base forming right on the heels of the breakout from an 11 week base in January. Nice base on base pattern, and they really work to weed out the sellers and place the stock in the hands of strong holders. ORCC bounced off the 50 day EMA last Wednesday and is now testing that move, making the final shakeout. Strong 4 to 0 accumulation shows all buying in the current base. Strong money flow is moving higher ahead of the price. May take another day or two to complete the pattern, but a solid leader with strong fundamentals ready to break to a 6 year high.
Volume: 124.62K Avg Volume: 128.207K
BUY POINT: $13.55 Volume=199K Target=$16.25 Stop=$12.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/orcc.html
Play Date: 03/04/2006
QUIK (Quicklogic--$5.05; -0.02; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/quik.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice tight doji at the 10 day EMA (4.95). Ignoring the market selling as it forms its handle. Nice. To recap: QUIK is in one of the hotter sub-sectors of the semiconductor sector, and it is working on a weeklong handle to its 8 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (4.62) as support. Price/volume action is great; volume died off in February as QUIK bottomed over the 50 day EMA and then surged as it formed the right side of the base. It trailed off in the handle and then shot higher Friday as QUIK showed a doji, setting the stage for the breakout move. This base consolidates the January breakout from a 7 month cup with handle as well. QUIK is not what you would call a serious market leader, but its sector is hot and QUIK has set up well to give us a breakout and a really nice gain in short order.
Volume: 182.352K Avg Volume: 248.307K
BUY POINT: $5.29 Volume=360K Target=$6.48 Stop=$4.92
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/quik.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACN 12/14 Test 18 31.88 -0.49 29.22 33.95 2.5M 2.7M 31.75
Broke the 18 day MA on volume & time to exit short
term positions (options). Managed to rebound some
off test toward 50 day, but expecting a further test
of 50 day to give us the next buy.
ADBE 03/06 Test 50 38.11 -0.32 39.75 45.95 2.9M 7.5M 37.89
Buy Not Hit.
ALNY 02/27 Test BO 16.36 -0.9 16.06 19.15 491K 335K 16.18
Current. Pullback on stronger above average volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to 16.23
ARTC 02/27 Test BO 44.74 -0.42 46.34 53.95 262K 500K 45.12
Buy Not Issued. Will drop for now and let test back.
ASPV 03/04 Asc Bse 27.35 -0.12 27.49 32.92 269K 523K 25.89
Current.
ATHR 02/28 FlyPlat 23.61 +0.76 21.98 26.45 5.1M 1.4M 21.88
Current. Gapped up at the open for a nice gain on very strong volume surge. Continue with the uptrend.
BABY 02/25 Asc Bse 21.11 -0.4 19.94 23.82 277K 213K 20.12
Current. Pullback on lower, but strong volume. Filling the gap from yesterday's move. May pullback to 20.52
BMRN 02/18 Cup hdl 12.3 -0.45 12.75 15.25 687K 700K 12.57
Current. Pullback testing the 50 day MVA intraday and rallied back on stronger above average volume. Testing the breakout. May continue to test back to 12.18.
CBST 03/01 Flat 24.32 +0.88 23.95 28.75 2.6M 750K 22.88
Current. Volatile session testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back for a nice gain showing a doji on strong volume surge. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA.
CTXS 01/25 Test BO 32.35 -0.43 31.05 36.95 1.9M 3M 31.55
Current. Gapped down at the open and rallied back to hold the 10 day MVA on low volume. Showing good action coming off the day's low.
CTXS 01/04 Test BO 32.35 -0.43 30.05 35.95 1.9M 2.2M 31.55
Current.
CYMI 02/06 Test 50 43.24 -1.12 47.12 57.95 880K 1.2M 45.22
Buy Not Issued.
CYMI 01/21 Test BO 43.24 -1.12 41.35 47.95 880K 1M 47.55
Current. Gapped down and continued to move down holding the simple 50 day MVA on rising, but average volume. Stock should be ready to rebound off the 50 day MVA.
DIOD 02/22 Asc Bse 36.71 -1.66 38.25 45.88 390K 550K 38.28
Current. Thudded down below the 18 day MVA on slightly above average volume. May test back to support at 36.57.
DO 03/01 Dbl btm 77.42 -2.07 82.88 97 2.7M 3M 79.24
Exited.
DTAS 01/23 Test 50 13.34 -0.25 13.91 16.77 615K 1.2M 13.97
Exited.
EZPW 02/11 FlyPlat 24.25 +0.81 23.27 27.75 253K 267K 22.77
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on excellent volume surge.
FFIV 03/06 Test BO 65.85 -1.31 66.75 80.95 1.2M 1.4M 64.88
Buy Not Hit. Gapped down testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on average volume. May test back to support at 65. Still in the pattern.
FORM 01/30 Test BO 36.97 -1.83 30.32 36.25 628K 627K 39.21
Current. Testing the breakout. May test back to 36.84. Should be ready to bounce from here.
FSL 02/13 DB hdl 26.35 -0.67 28.37 33.18 2.2M 2.5M 27.22
Exited.
GME 03/06 Test BO 39.94 -0.85 42.11 49.95 666K 2M 39.65
Buy Not Hit. Pullback on rising, but below average volume to hold at support below the 18 day MVA. Still in the pattern.
GS 02/13 Test 18 144.28 -0.74 140.88 152 2.8M 4.4M 142.98
Current. Gapped down testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a tight doji on below average volume. Moving up after testing the 18 day MVA.
ISE 02/21 Test 18 45.74 +1.73 40.33 48 702K 869K 42.44
Current.
MCHP 03/01 Test 50 35.78 -0.31 36.93 42.95 2.2M 2.2M 35.89
Current. Pullback testing the 50 day MVA intraday and made a fierce rally back on strong volume surge. Stock may continue to test back to the 50 day MVA (35.40)
MER 02/14 Test BO 77.21 -0.03 74.45 84.85 4.8M 6.5M 76
Current. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on rising, but average volume. Meeting resistance at 77.60
MGI 02/22 DB hdl 27.89 -0.28 28.69 33.98 258K 550K 27.83
Current. Gapped down tapping 27.57 at the intraday low and rallied back holding just below the 18 day MVA at some support on rising, but below average volume. Still forming the handle.
MSTR 01/14 Test BO 98.06 -0.5 96.72 111 373K 493K 95.65
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on rising, but average volume. Still in uptrend.
MSTR 11/15 DB hdl 98.06 -0.5 81.22 91.25 373K 612K 95.65
Current.
NETL 03/04 Test BO 36.13 -1.42 38.55 46 296K 500K 36
Buy Not Issued. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on lower below average volume. Testing the breakout. May continue to test back to 35.55.
NSM 03/01 Asc Bse 28 -1.07 29.28 34.55 5.2M 6.5M 28.21
Current. Gapped lower and sold toward the 50 day EMA, giving
us few choices. Will see if it can rebound and at least
fill the gap up at 29.
NURO 02/28 Cup hdl 34.42 -1.04 38.65 45.55 151K 352K 36.44
Current.
ORCC 03/04 Cup hdl 13.18 +0.13 13.55 16.25 124K 199K 12.85
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on rising, but average volume. Still forming the handle.
OXPS 02/22 Asc Bse 30.13 -1.61 31.55 37.85 1.3M 1.5M 30.31
Current.
PKE 02/25 Test BO 28.86 +0.04 29.62 35.55 83K 185K 28.31
Buy Not Hit.
QUIK 03/04 Cup hdl 5.05 -0.02 5.29 6.48 182K 360K 4.92
Buy Not Hit.
RADS 02/25 Asc Tri 14.63 -0.07 14.89 17.95 171K 496K 14.22
Current. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on low volume. Testing the breakout. Ready to move up from here.
RSTI 02/18 FlyPlat 50.73 -1.28 51.95 59.95 126K 173K 51.92
Current. Gapped down to hold below the 18 day MVA o n slightly above average volume. May test back to support at 50.
RVSN 02/14 Test BO 20.06 -0.1 20.78 24.88 316K 500K 19.89
Current.
RVSN 01/07 Test 18 20.06 -0.1 17.45 20.95 316K 471K 19.89
Current.
SIRF 02/18 Test BO 37.46 -0.22 36.68 43.94 887K 1.8M 38.48
Current. Testing the breakout. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back holding just below the 10 day MVA. Should be ready to move up from here.
SLAB 03/01 Test BO 47.5 -1.82 50.76 60.95 828K 1.8M 47.68
Buy Not Issued.
SMSI 02/27 Test BO 8.95 -0.28 9.29 11.25 308K 300K 8.64
Buy Not Issued.
SNDK 01/14 Test BO 56.5 -2.23 73.72 89.45 9.4M 21M 71.55
Current. Pullback on below average volume. Needs to hold at 56
SNDK 12/20 DB hdl 56.5 -2.23 60.69 72.38 9.4M 20M 71.55
Current.
TECH 02/27 PreAnn 58.62 -0.72 60.57 71.88 181K 374K 58.88
Buy Not Hit. Gapped down at the open testing the simple 50 day MVA intraday and rallied back on rising, but below average volume. Should rebound off the 50 day MVA (58.37)
TKC 02/15 FlyPlat 17.45 -1.09 18.55 22.25 602K 635K 18.39
Current. Gapped down testing the simple 50 day MVA intraday and rallied back on stronger above average volume. Stock needs to hold the 50 day MVA. (17)
TRID 02/06 Test 18 27.35 -0.81 26.22 31.72 1.6M 2.5M 27.05
Current. Pullback holding the 18 day MVA on much stronger, but average volume. Should be ready to bounce from here.
TRMB 03/06 Test BO 42.31 -0.2 42.75 50.88 320K 450K 40.58
Buy Not Hit. Testing the breakout. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on rising, but below average volume. Still in the pattern.
VTAL 03/04 Test BO 32.31 +0.37 32.98 39.55 153K 269K 31.89
Buy Not Hit.
VTIV 02/08 Cup hdl 28.2 +1.07 27.85 32.65 1.3M 614K 26.28
Buy Not Issued. Big gap up at the open, but gave some of it back on very strong volume surge. Did not enter the play because stock spent session coming off the day's high.
ZIGO 02/15 Test BO 15.4 -1.85 18.15 21.82 612K 200K 17.41
Exited.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
LTR 02/25 Put 93.05 -0.84 93.15 90.85 563K 600K 92.65
Current. Gapped down as stock makes a nice move down the 10 day MVA on strong volume surge.
NDE 02/13 Put 38.54 +0.24 38.78 36.55 855K 775K 39.45
Buy Not Issued. Bounced on stronger above average volume. May rally to the 10 day MVA (38.78)
OIS 02/14 Put 32.85 -0.86 35.55 33.75 827K 775K 34.12
Target Hit. Gapped down and continued to make a nice move down the 10 day MVA on strong volume.
PDS 02/22 Put 29.8 -0.65 31.48 30 458K 550K 30.12
Target Hit. Nice move down the 10 day MVA hitting the target on low volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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