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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: CEPH; DRIV; GILD; QCOM
Play Date: 03/08/2006
DRIV (Digital River--$40.03; +1.54; optionable): Internet network solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/driv.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Saw this move intraday and issued an alert on it. The leader in its sector and sporting top notch sales and earnings growth, DRIV broke out from a 15 month base on surging volume. This is one of the market leaders we want to stick with during this choppy period in the market. Still a buy on this move and then we look for a test to hold and start back up for another entry point.
Volume: 2.219M Avg Volume: 1.071M
BUY POINT: $40.08 Volume=1.4M Target=$48 Stop=$38.11
POSITION: DQI IH - Sept. $40c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/driv.html
Potential Pre-Announcement.
Play Date: 03/08/2006
MSTR (Microstrategy--$98.10; +0.04; optionable): Enterprise software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mstr.html
After Hours: $97.02
STATUS: Cup w/handle. MSTR was one of the first stocks back in 2002 to announce a reverse split. The timing was right, and it helped energize MSTR and send it on this run. MSTR has formed the current 8 week base over the 50 day EMA (91.75), consolidating the mid-December breakout and run higher into early January. Strong volume as MSTR rallied to start the month and form the right side of the base, and now a modest, low volume pullback to the 10 day EMA (96.95), forming the handle to the base. Just being patient and waiting for the next volume surge to push it higher. Solid 3:1 accumulation in the base.
Volume: 210.136K Avg Volume: 344.19K
BUY POINT: $100.95 Volume=516K Target=$115 Stop=$96.68
POSITION: EOU GA - July $105c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mstr.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/04/2006
DAKT (Daktronics--$35.73; +0.64; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments. Just announced earnings on 2-15-06. Researching to pinpoint the date, but really like this low volume test so did not want to wait.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-24-01 at $29.20. Before that a 2:1 split on 12-7-99 at $24.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dakt.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Held firm at the 10 day EMA (35.09) during the selling and then started higher Wednesday. Volume was still below average, but looks as if DAKT is ready to continue its breakout move. To recap: DAKT got a case of the dips in mid-February, crashing through the 50 day EMA (32.05) when it reported earnings. It was a one-day affair, however, as earnings were solid and DAKT shot right back up, breaking out anew from a 6 week lateral base. It spent the past two weeks easing back on low volume to the 10 day EMA, holding that level the past week. Strong money flow is leading higher even as DAKT makes the test. Very strong market leader with excellent fundamentals to set the stage for the next move to a new all-time high.
Volume: 93.531K Avg Volume: 112.595K
BUY POINT: $35.81 Volume=168K Target=$41.95 Stop=$34.64
POSITION: QKC GG - July $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dakt.html
Pre-Split Plays: New buy point on current position
Play Date: 03/07/2006
NVDA (Nvidia--$47.98; -0.24; optionable): Semiconductors. Splits 3:2 on 3-28-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
After Hours: $47.98
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Another good shakeout as NVDA reached below the 18 day EMA (47.08) on the low (46.26) and then rallied hard to get back to flat. Volume rose on the rebound, a very good sign that buyers came back into the stock after the selling. Good shakeout and ready to continue its run higher. A chip stock that has avoided the selling. It is in a continuing uptrend, breaking out from a short 6 week base in late February. Nice test of that move is setting up the further run higher.
Volume: 5.508M Avg Volume: 4.15M
BUY POINT: $49.25 Volume=6.2M Target=$56.95 Stop=$46.78
POSITION: UVA FZ - June $47.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nvda.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AMX 02/18 Asc Bse 33.25 -0.76 35.45 41.85 6.8M 5.6M 34.15
Current.
ANN 02/25 PreAnn 36.1 +0.61 36.05 43 748K 2M 34.89
Buy Not Issued.
ANSS 03/04 PreAnn 47.46 +0.04 48.42 56.95 147K 475K 46.55
Buy Not Hit.
ATHR 02/28 FlyPlat 23.95 +0.34 21.98 26.45 1.7M 1.4M 21.88
Current. Tapped 22.94 at the intraday low and rallied back for a nice gain as stock moves up the 10 day MVA on lower, but strong volume.
BLUD 02/25 PreAnn 28.85 -0.12 29.92 37.95 188K 669K 28.45
Buy Not Hit.
BR 03/04 PreAnn 89.19 +0.33 91.88 104.95 3.5M 7M 90.05
Buy Not Hit.
BRCM 02/14 PreSplt 46.72 +0.87 45.66 52.38 13M 10M 46.05
Current.
BRO 02/21 DB hdl 32.66 +0.34 32 37.95 382K 808K 31.85
Current.
CELG 02/16 PreSplt 39.94 +0.28 35.45 40.75 2.8M 3M 39.24
Current. Meeting some resistance at 40. Continue with the uptrend.
CELG 01/17 PreSplt 39.94 +0.28 32.28 39.45 2.8M 3.2M 39.24
CELL 03/07 FlyPlat 28 -0.4 29.57 35.48 853K 1M 27.57
Buy Not Hit.
CELL 01/17 Cup hdl 28 -0.4 20.83 24.94 853K 1.3M 28.08
Current.
CEPH 03/07 PreAnn 81.39 +2.25 81.59 97.38 1.6M 3.2M 77.69
Entered today. Nice move up after testing the 10 day MVA on low volume.
CEPH 02/23 PreAnn 81.39 +2.25 76.72 92 1.6M 3M 80.29
CHE 02/22 Asc Bse 54.37 +0.65 55.65 65.75 284K 284K 54.64
Current. Break out on strong volume surge holding at some resistance at the 10 day MVA. Moving up after testing the breakout.
CHRW 01/31 DB hdl 44.08 -0.34 42.03 49.98 1.1M 1.4M 44.14
Trailing Stop.
CNQ 03/02 PreAnn 54.76 -2.38 60.78 69.95 2.5M 1.5M 57.45
Buy Not Issued. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
COH 02/11 DB hdl 35.22 -0.14 36.88 42.95 1.2M 4.1M 35.15
Buy Not Issued.
CTSH 03/04 PreAnn 55.68 -0.83 57.38 68 1.1M 2M 55.78
Buy Not Hit. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
CWTR 03/04 Cup hdl 21.71 +0.32 22.81 27.45 1.5M 1.9M 21.39
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 20.65 at the intraday low and made a fierce rally back to hold the 10 day MVA on slightly above average volume. Still forming the handle.
DAKT 03/04 PreAnn 35.73 +0.64 35.81 41.95 94K 168K 34.64
Buy Not Hit.
DBRN 02/21 PreAnn 42.63 +1.01 44.11 52.95 1.5M 1.2M 42.55
Buy Not Issued.
DIOD 02/22 Asc Bse 35.4 -1.31 38.25 45.88 468K 550K 38.28
Current. Pullback holding the 50 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Will let stock test back to support at 34.
DIOD 01/26 Test 18 35.4 -1.31 35.65 41.85 468K 518K 38.28
Current.
DRIV 03/08 DB hdl 40.03 +1.54 40.08 48 2.2M 1.4M 38.11
Entered today. Sector leader in internet solutions. Broke out on strong trade from a 15 mo base. Saw the move & issued the buy.
DVA 01/24 PreAnn 58.44 +0.16 56.21 64.75 383K 816K 58.11
Current.
FFIV 03/06 Test BO 65.19 -0.66 66.75 80.95 1.6M 1.4M 64.88
Buy Not Hit. Pullback tapping simple 50 day MVA intraday (63)and rallied back to hold the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Still in the pattern. Should be ready to bounce.
FFIV 02/17 Test 50 65.19 -0.66 63.65 77.95 1.6M 1.7M 66.48
Trailing Stop.
GG 02/25 PreAnn 25.55 -1.51 27.07 32.45 8.4M 5M 26.18
Exited.
GILD 03/07 PreAnn 60.78 +1.69 61 69.95 3.7M 4.8M 58.45
Entered today.
GS 02/14 PreAnn 142.49 -1.79 144.88 156.95 3.6M 4.4M 142.98
Current. Pullback holding the 18 day MVA on much stronger, but average volume. Should be ready to bounce from here.
IEX 02/23 PreAnn 47.07 -0.17 48.05 55.35 365K 200K 46.36
Buy Not Hit. Pullback to hold the 10 day MVA on very strong volume surge. Should be ready to bounce from here.
ITG 02/09 PreAnn 46.26 -0.34 45.25 53.95 574K 700K 43.15
Buy Not Issued. Pullback holding the 18 day MVA on lower, but strong volume. Stock needs to continue to pullback.
MATR 03/02 FlyPlat 43.29 -0.01 45.11 52.55 314K 295K 42.92
Buy Not Hit.
MSCC 03/04 PreAnn 29.52 -0.07 31.88 38 661K 1.3M 30.58
Buy Not Hit. Pullback tapping 28.81 at the intraday low and rallied back on lower below average volume holding just below the 50 day MVA. Looking for stock to rebound from here.
NURO 02/28 Cup hdl 34.78 +0.36 38.65 45.55 68K 352K 36.44
Current.
NVDA 03/07 PreSplt 47.98 -0.24 49.25 56.95 5.5M 6.2M 46.78
Buy Not Hit.
NVDA 02/06 Test 18 47.98 -0.24 46.96 55.45 5.5M 6.1M 46.48
Current.
OPLK 03/02 Asc Bse 16.71 -0.29 17.99 21.69 212K 258K 16.68
Current.
PLCE 03/07 PreAnn 50.27 -0.89 51.88 59.95 1.3M 1M 48.39
Buy Not Hit.
PNRA 02/04 PreAnn 69.8 +0.1 72.55 83.25 675K 801K 70.35
Buy Not Issued. Showing a doji on strong volume surge. Doji may indicate a change in pattern to the upside.
PPDI 02/18 Test BO 34.94 +0.26 35.06 39.95 350K 544K 34.41
Buy Not Issued.
PPDI 01/19 PreAnn 34.94 +0.26 32.44 37.32 350K 561K 34.22
QCOM 03/04 Rv H&S 49.53 +1.67 48.88 57.95 27M 19M 47.55
Entered today. Explosive move on excellent volume surge.
RSTI 02/18 FlyPlat 49.74 -0.99 51.95 59.95 174K 173K 51.92
Current. Gapped down below the 18 day MVA showing a doji on stronger above average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern to the upside.
SILC 03/07 Test BO 10.34 -0.62 11.39 13.75 149K 155K 10.59
Buy Not Hit. Continue to pullback holding just below the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Testing the breakout. Still in the pattern.
SLAB 03/01 Test BO 48.14 +0.64 50.76 60.95 996K 1.8M 47.68
Buy Not Issued.
SNDK 01/14 Test BO 53.95 -2.55 73.72 89.45 19M 21M 71.55
Current. Was going to let the stock make a double bottom, but stock gapped down showing a doji on stronger above average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern to the upside. Will let rebound for a better exit point.
SNDK 12/20 DB hdl 53.95 -2.55 60.69 72.38 19M 20M 71.55
Current.
TECH 02/27 PreAnn 59.25 +0.63 60.57 71.88 131K 374K 58.88
Buy Not Hit. Bounced off the 50 day MVA to hold at the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern.
TKC 01/28 Test BO 17.15 -0.3 18.55 22.25 503K 630K 18.39
Current. Holding the 50 day MVA on above average volume. Should hold here because there is a lot of support. Looking for a rebound from here.
TRID 03/07 Test 18 27.31 -0.04 28.11 33.75 1.6M 2M 26.85
Buy Not Hit.
TRID 02/06 Test 18 27.31 -0.04 26.22 31.72 1.6M 2.5M 27.05
Current. Tapped 26 at the intraday low and rallied back holding the 18 day MVA on average volume. Should rebound from here.
TRID 01/24 Test BO 27.31 -0.04 22.88 27 1.6M 2.2M 27.05
TRMB 03/06 Test BO 42.08 -0.23 42.75 50.88 227K 450K 40.58
Buy Not Hit. Pullback tapping 41.45 at the intraday low and rallied back showing a doji on low volume. Still in the pattern. Should be ready to bounce.
VMC 02/23 PreAnn 77.25 +0.1 80.11 92 453K 800K 77.45
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 75.61 at the intraday low and rallied back on below average volume. Still in good shape.
WIRE 02/13 Test BO 33.35 -0.65 30.98 36.98 951K 485K 33.65
Current. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on stronger above average volume. Testing the breakout. Showing strength coming off the day's low.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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