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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Strong plays:
1) CNQR: Ready to continue higher after this nice test.
2) QCOM: Super breakout underway.
3) ORCC: Very nice, orderly handle continues to form.
4) TRMB: Another stocks showing an excellent test during the market selling.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 03/08/2006
CNQR (Concur Technologies--$15.6; +0.35; optionable): Software to automate corporate expense management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnqr.html
After Hours: $15.60
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. CNQR broke out over a long-term resistance level in early January, moving out of a 16 week flat base as it did. Nice run to 17 and the past three weeks a nice test of the move, landing at the 50 day EMA (15.21). Strong money flow has turned up even as CNQR makes this test. Unlike many stocks and some indices, CNQR held this level. Given its strong fundamentals, not surprising. Looking for a continued volume move off this support to start the play.
Volume: 319.871K Avg Volume: 315.261K
BUY POINT: $16.05 Volume=473K Target=$19.26 Stop=$15.15
POSITION: JCQ HC - Aug. $15c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cnqr.html
Play Date: 03/08/2006
DIGE (Digene Corp.--$42.01; +0.75; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dige.html
After Hours: $41.88
STATUS: Cup w/handle. DIGE has used the market selling the past two weeks to work laterally over the 10 day EMA (41.38), forming a handle to a 29 month cup with handle base. It likely has more work to do on the handle, but Wednesday volume spiked higher as DIGE tested the 18 day EMA (40.17) and rebounded for a gain. That is a shakeout followed by buyers ready to move into the stock. Strong fundamentals. Strong stock.
Volume: 532.641K Avg Volume: 284.716K
BUY POINT: $43.65 Volume=427K Target=$51.95 Stop=$40.92
POSITION: QDG FH - June $40c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dige.html
Play Date: 03/08/2006
DRIV (Digital River--$40.03; +1.54; optionable): Internet network solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/driv.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Saw this move intraday and issued an alert on it. The leader in its sector and sporting top notch sales and earnings growth, DRIV broke out from a 15 month base on surging volume. This is one of the market leaders we want to stick with during this choppy period in the market. Still a buy on this move and then we look for a test to hold and start back up for another entry point.
Volume: 2.219M Avg Volume: 1.071M
BUY POINT: $40.08 Volume=1.4M Target=$48 Stop=$38.11
POSITION: DQI IH - Sept. $40c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/driv.html
Play Date: 03/08/2006
QCOM (Qualcom--$49.53; +1.67; optionable): Telecom equipment and licensing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
After Hours: $49.50
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. QCOM upped its guidance Tuesday, but the market was not ready for it to make the move. That changed Wednesday as QCOM blew off the market and charged higher. It broke out of its nice little 8 week accumulation base that used the 50 day EMA (46.95) as support for the 'head.' This base consolidates the January breakout and rally from QCOM's larger base, one that started in December 2004. Positive 3 to 1 accumulation in the current base shows plenty of buying above the 50 day EMA, a key support level. Strong money flow. A current leader in this market, showing strong fundamentals to go with its pattern that is ready to break to a 5 year high.
Volume: 27.098M Avg Volume: 13.172M
BUY POINT: $49.92 Volume=19M Target=$58.95 Stop=$47.55
POSITION: AAO GW - July $47.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qcom.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 03/08/2006
BLKB (Blackbaud--$19.21; +0.17; no options): Software for non-profit organizations
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blkb.html
STATUS: Breakout test. BLBK reported strong earnings in mid-February, and after a volatile week broke to the upside, riding the 10 day EMA (18.80). The move took it out of a 13 week double bottom base and sent it to a new all-time high. It has used the past two sessions to work laterally and test that move, all on lower volume. Looks solid for the the next run higher.
Volume: 330.3K Avg Volume: 429.816K
BUY POINT: $19.44 Volume=645K Target=$22.95 Stop=$18.52
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/blkb.html
Play Date: 03/04/2006
MER (Merrill Lynch--$77.14; -0.07; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mer.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Still waiting for the break higher as MER continues to move laterally over the 18 day EMA (76.37), tapping that level on the lows. Volume has jumped up to average the past two sessions. Looks ready but needs to show us the move.
Volume: 4.761M Avg Volume: 4.55M
BUY POINT: $78.25 Volume=6.5M Target=$88.95 Stop=$76.39
POSITION: MER GP - July $80c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mer.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 03/06/2006
FFIV (F5 Networks--$65.19; -0.66; optionable): Internet traffic management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Big reach down toward the 50 day EMA (62.19) on the low and then a strong rebound on rising, above average volume that held support at 65 on the close. Good shakeout helping to set the next break higher. To recap: FFIV was downgraded Monday, and that sent it down to the 10 day EMA (66.38) on continued slightly above average volume. It broke out from a 7 week ascending triangle in late February, a nice consolidation from the early January breakout from a 10 month reverse head and shoulders pattern. Strong stock that should survive this downgrade. Looking for a volume bounce to resume the breakout move. Strong leader in fundamentals and technical pattern.
Volume: 1.578M Avg Volume: 1.103M
BUY POINT: $67.65 Volume=1.4M Target=$80.95 Stop=$65.32
POSITION: FLK GN - July $70c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ffiv.html
Play Date: 03/04/2006
ORCC (Online Resources--$13.05; -0.13; no options): Outsourced internet financial technology services to financial service providers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orcc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another nice doji at the 10 day EMA (13.02) as ORCC continues formation of its very nice, orderly handle. Riding out the market selling as it sets up its next move. To recap: ORCC has formed a short but nice 6 week base on top of the 50 day EMA (12.62), this base forming right on the heels of the breakout from an 11 week base in January. Nice base on base pattern, and they really work to weed out the sellers and place the stock in the hands of strong holders. ORCC bounced off the 50 day EMA a week back and is now testing that move, making the final shakeout. Strong 4 to 0 accumulation shows all buying in the current base. Strong money flow is moving higher ahead of the price. May take another day or two to complete the pattern, but a solid leader with strong fundamentals ready to break to a 6 year high.
Volume: 91.87K Avg Volume: 128.207K
BUY POINT: $13.55 Volume=199K Target=$16.25 Stop=$12.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/orcc.html
Play Date: 03/04/2006
QUIK (Quicklogic--$4.97; -0.08; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/quik.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume was up to above average Wednesday as QUIK continued its test of the 10 day EMA (4.96), holding a very tight range. Volume spikes such as this indicate accumulation underway and often occur before the break higher. Very solid, minding its own business in the selling. To recap: QUIK is in one of the hotter sub-sectors of the semiconductor sector, and it is working on a weeklong handle to its 8 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (4.63) as support. Price/volume action is great; volume died off in February as QUIK bottomed over the 50 day EMA and then surged as it formed the right side of the base. It trailed off in the handle and then shot higher last Friday as QUIK showed a doji, setting the stage for the breakout move. This base consolidates the January breakout from a 7 month cup with handle as well. QUIK is not what you would call a serious market leader, but its sector is hot and QUIK has set up well to give us a breakout and a really nice gain in short order.
Volume: 269.101K Avg Volume: 248.307K
BUY POINT: $5.29 Volume=360K Target=$6.48 Stop=$4.92
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/quik.html
Play Date: 03/06/2006
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$42.08; -0.23; optionable): GPS devices. Tentatively forecast in late April.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 2-3-04 at $38.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still making the test of the strong move last week, easing back to the 10 day EMA (41.69) the past week on low, below average volume. Tuesday and Wednesday it showed dojis at that level; looks ready to continue higher. Really like how it used the market selling to test its strong move and set up the next run. To recap: TRMB gapped higher in late January on good results, then formed a 5 week handle to its 7.5 month base. Last week it broke out of the handle on strong, above average volume as it announced a new product. Friday and Monday it started to test that move, easing back on very low, below average volume. Monday it tapped the January high on the low and rebounded to cut some of the losses. Strong 10 to 5 accumulation shows lots of buying during the nice base. Strong money flow. Relative strength broke out last week. Has pulled back to the 10 day EMA as anticipated, and now it is ready.
Volume: 226.621K Avg Volume: 390.061K
BUY POINT: $42.75 Volume=450K Target=$50.88 Stop=$40.58
POSITION: TUH HH - Aug. $40c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/trmb.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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