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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: RACK; NUAN; ARNA;
Tuesday night play results:
SILC: Fell through the 18 day EMA on rising, above average volume.
PLCE: Still setting up for the breakout with a nice shakeout Wednesday
KOMG: Doji at the 18 day EMA on low volume.
NVDA: Reached down below the 18 day EMA and recovered nicely.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/08/2006
CTXS (Citrix Systems--$32.47; +0.12; optionable): Infrastructure software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctxs.html
After Hours: $32.47
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. CTXS broke out from a 12 month base in October and has formed a couple of smaller bases since as it rallies up the 50 day EMA (30.72). It gapped higher in mid-January on a strong earnings report, capping a breakout and run from mid-December. It then fell into a short 6 week double bottom with handle formed over the 50 day EMA and broke higher to end February. It rallied to 33.50 and then started to work laterally, fading back this week on low, below average volume to test the 18 day EMA (31.88), holding the late February breakout as it does. Strong money flow continues to run higher even as CTXS moved laterally and made this test. A strong market leader that is ready for more upside after this test. One of the leaders in its sector with solid fundamentals driving the solid technical pattern.
Volume: 1.974M Avg Volume: 2.218M
BUY POINT: $33.08 Volume=3.3M Target=$39.72 Stop=$31.74
POSITION: XSQ IF - Sept. $30c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ctxs.html
Play Date: 03/08/2006
DRIV (Digital River--$40.03; +1.54; optionable): Internet network solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/driv.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Saw this move intraday and issued an alert on it. The leader in its sector and sporting top notch sales and earnings growth, DRIV broke out from a 15 month base on surging volume. This is one of the market leaders we want to stick with during this choppy period in the market. Still a buy on this move and then we look for a test to hold and start back up for another entry point.
Volume: 2.219M Avg Volume: 1.071M
BUY POINT: $40.08 Volume=1.4M Target=$48 Stop=$38.11
POSITION: DQI IH - Sept. $40c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/driv.html
Play Date: 03/08/2006
QCOM (Qualcom--$49.53; +1.67; optionable): Telecom equipment and licensing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
After Hours: $49.50
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. QCOM upped its guidance Tuesday, but the market was not ready for it to make the move. That changed Wednesday as QCOM blew off the market and charged higher. It broke out of its nice little 8 week accumulation base that used the 50 day EMA (46.95) as support for the 'head.' This base consolidates the January breakout and rally from QCOM's larger base, one that started in December 2004. Positive 3 to 1 accumulation in the current base shows plenty of buying above the 50 day EMA, a key support level. Strong money flow. A current leader in this market, showing strong fundamentals to go with its pattern that is ready to break to a 5 year high.
Volume: 27.098M Avg Volume: 13.172M
BUY POINT: $49.92 Volume=19M Target=$58.95 Stop=$47.55
POSITION: AAO GW - July $47.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/qcom.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 03/08/2006
NUAN (Nuance Communications--$10.29; +0.17; optionable): Human voice interaction with information systems, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nuan.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. NUAN has been a nice winner for us since late December. After that run it needed a breather, and the past two weeks it has moved lower on lower volume to test the 18 day EMA (10.04). Wednesday NUAN dove lower, tapping at the 50 day EMA (8.93) on the low and then rallying furiously to recover the 18 day EMA and post a gain. Volume shot higher as buyers rushed back in to scoop it up. Like to see that after this pullback as it shows us the big money is still ready to buy. Looking for a strong move through the 10 day EMA (10.31) to take additional positions.
Volume: 3.577M Avg Volume: 1.986M
BUY POINT: $10.52 Volume=2.1M Target=$12.65 Stop=$9.92
POSITION: SSQ GB - July $10c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nuan.html
Play Date: 03/07/2006
NVDA (Nvidia--$47.98; -0.24; optionable): Semiconductors. Splits 3:2 on 3-28-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
After Hours: $47.98
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Another good shakeout as NVDA reached below the 18 day EMA (47.08) on the low (46.26) and then rallied hard to get back to flat. Volume rose on the rebound, a very good sign that buyers came back into the stock after the selling. Good shakeout and ready to continue its run higher. A chip stock that has avoided the selling. It is in a continuing uptrend, breaking out from a short 6 week base in late February. Nice test of that move is setting up the further run higher.
Volume: 5.508M Avg Volume: 4.15M
BUY POINT: $49.25 Volume=6.2M Target=$56.95 Stop=$46.78
POSITION: UVA FZ - June $47.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nvda.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, BRCM, CELG, COH, FFIV, GME, MRVL, NVDA, PSYS, UNH
BRCM: Trying to hold, rebounding Wednesday back over the 18 day EMA, but on low, below average volume. That shows not many rushing to get back in just yet. Have to be careful here if fails. Can sell some April $50 or even $45 calls and buy them back when the test is over.
CELG: Very nice, orderly, low volume test back to the 10 day EMA (38.75) after the strong move the past three weeks.
FFIV: Reached down to test the 50 day EMA intraday and then rebounded on stronger volume. Good shakeout action.
GME: Getting grim, falling to the 50 day SMA on rising volume. Trade was still below average, however. Some support at 38.
PSYS: Surged back to the 50 day EMA but could not hold the move through that level. Volume was not bad. Has to punch on through.
UNH: Trying to put something together at the 200 day SMA as it makes its second test of that level in something of a double bottom.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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