us stock market, stock recommendation

Begin part 3 of 3

THE PLAYS

Good movers: EZPW; PDS

Wednesday night play results:
CNQR: Ready to make the move
DIGE: Holding up very well
BLKB: Needs some more volume
NUAN: Doji at the 18 day EMA.

New Plays:

Upside:

Play Date: 03/09/2006
ASEI (American Science & Engineering--$83.85; -0.76; optionable): X-ray inspection, etc. for homeland security and defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asei.html
After Hours: $83.77
STATUS: Breakout test. ASEI surged out of a 15 week base two weeks back, surging on strong volume. It peaked out at 88.50 and is now testing the move, coming back on lower volume. Outstanding 5 to 1 accumulation in the base (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows nearly all buying as it consolidated for the next run higher. As the market turns defensive, these stocks are more desirable. Looking for volume to kick back up as ASEI resumes the breakout run. Money flow is surging. Relative strength broke out on the move, a good corroboration of the price move.
Volume: 291.527K Avg Volume: 241.411K
BUY POINT: $85.75 Volume=362K Target=$98.65 Stop=$83.45
POSITION: KBU GQ - July $85c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/asei.html

Play Date: 03/09/2006
CRM (Salesforce.com--$37.51; -0.31; optionable): Customer relationship management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CRM is trying to set up a quick little 7 week base after a strong run from early November to mid-January. It dove lower in mid-February on a contract loss, but a week later earnings jumped and that started CRM back up the right side of its pattern. It moved to the early January gap up point and has started to slide laterally the past week on lower, below average volume. The range is tightening up as it works sideways, setting up the break higher. Positive accumulation in the pattern. May take another session or two to complete the move before showing us the breakout.
Volume: 1.103M Avg Volume: 1.921M
BUY POINT: $38.75 Volume=2.9M Target=$46.55 Stop=$36.32
POSITION: CRM HG - Aug. $35c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/crm.html

Downside:

Play Date: 03/09/2006
ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch--$57.03; -0.47; optionable): Teen apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anf.html
STATUS: Put. ANF has already dropped sharply on its same store sales miss to start the month, and it has not done much to rebound. It has moved laterally the past three sessions after that tumble; hardly a sharp rebound. It may still rebound to recoup some of the losses, but ANF appears determined to fill that gap higher from back in early November. We have a feeling it is going to continue lower from here as it has failed to recover over a range of resistance formed after that November gap higher and money flow continues to dive. If it bounces we will let it and then have a higher entry point. If it falls from here, however, we will go after it. A move to the target lands us a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 1.49M Avg Volume: 2.398M
BUY POINT: $56.55 Volume=2.5M Target=$54 Stop=$57.45
POSITION: ANF PY - Apr. $57.50p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/anf.html

Play Date: 03/09/2006
SHW (Sherwin-Williams--$44.21; +0.65; optionable): Paints, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shw.html
After Hours: $44.74
STATUS: Put. SHW was one of the companies involved in the lead paint lawsuits, and it dove lower in late February on word the judge was a hanging judge, ready to paint SHW as the villain. Instead he denied punitive damages and SHW jumped back up. It could not close above the 200 day SMA (45.81), however, and gapped lower once more. After a short lateral move it tested higher Thursday but on very low volume, tapping at the 10 day EMA (44.74) on the high and fading. Looks ready to continue the move lower. A run to the target lands us a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 1.597M Avg Volume: 2.339M
BUY POINT: $43.85 Volume=2.4M Target=$41.65 Stop=$44.75
POSITION: SHW PI - Apr. $45p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/shw.html

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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