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world stock market, us stock market
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: DAKT; WIRE
New Post-Split Plays: New buy points on current positions
Play Date: 03/09/2006
VISG (Visage Technology--$17.78; +0.08; optionable): Secure credentials, biometrics, etc. for homeland security and commercial markets
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/visg.html
After Hours: $18.47
STATUS: Ascending triangle. VISG split in December and then rallied a bit more before falling into the current 9 week base using the 50 day EMA (17.69) as it makes higher and higher lows up that support and below a constant top just below 19. Strong 3 to 0 accumulation in the pattern shows all buying, setting up the breakout (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume). Strong money flow is also leading the way. Nice doji Thursday at the 50 day EMA, and we are looking for VISG to bounce higher on strong volume.
Volume: 253.167K Avg Volume: 463.692K
BUY POINT: $18.87 Volume=696K Target=$22.65 Stop=$17.65
POSITION: TJY GW - July $17.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/visg.html
Downside Play:
Play Date: 03/09/2006
ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch--$57.03; -0.47; optionable): Teen apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anf.html
STATUS: Put. ANF has already dropped sharply on its same store sales miss to start the month, and it has not done much to rebound. It has moved laterally the past three sessions after that tumble; hardly a sharp rebound. It may still rebound to recoup some of the losses, but ANF appears determined to fill that gap higher from back in early November. We have a feeling it is going to continue lower from here as it has failed to recover over a range of resistance formed after that November gap higher and money flow continues to dive. If it bounces we will let it and then have a higher entry point. If it falls from here, however, we will go after it. A move to the target lands us a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 1.49M Avg Volume: 2.398M
BUY POINT: $56.55 Volume=2.5M Target=$54 Stop=$57.45
POSITION: ANF PY - Apr. $57.50p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anf.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Lots of stocks still in position for split announcements. We have some good information on many though some are wild cards, i.e. no split history but hearing word of a possible split announcement. All are good leadership quality stocks that can make us money if they show us the breakout moves.
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ANN: Forecast 3-10-06. A bit of nervous trade ahead of Friday.
ANSS: Researching exact date.
BLUD: Researching date.
BR: Forecast 4-27-06
CEPH: Just announced earnings in February, but like the pattern.
CNQ: Forecast 3-16-06. Needs to show something.
CRDN: No split 3-9-06. The Tuesday crash was followed by a Wednesday gap lower. Never gave us the entry.
DAKT: Researching to pinpoint the date. Nice move to start things off!
DRI: Forecast 3-20-06. Trying to recover off the 50 day EMA and give us a new play.
FRK: Forecast 4-25-06 after the close or 5-3-06. Needs to form back up.
GG: Forecast 3-10-06. Had to exit the other day as gold came under pressure.
GILD: Forecast for April
GS: Forecast 3-16-06 before the open.
IEX: Tentatively forecast for third week of April. Setting up nicely
MATR: Researching to pinpoint the exact date. Dove lower Thursday, taking it out of contention.
MSCC: Forecast 4-27-06. An even tougher day at the office.
PLCE: Researching the date
PNRA: Forecast 4-12-06. Still waiting, waiting, waiting for a move to buy into.
POOL: Researching next date. Nice break higher and good for a new buy.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/09/2006
ASEI (American Science & Engineering--$83.85; -0.76; optionable): X-ray inspection, etc. for homeland security and defense. Researching date. Just announced earnings on 2-8-06
BACKGROUND: No splits in ASEI's history
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asei.html
After Hours: $83.77
STATUS: Breakout test. ASEI surged out of a 15 week base two weeks back, surging on strong volume. It peaked out at 88.50 and is now testing the move, coming back on lower volume. Outstanding 5 to 1 accumulation in the base (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows nearly all buying as it consolidated for the next run higher. As the market turns defensive, these stocks are more desirable. Looking for volume to kick back up as ASEI resumes the breakout run. Money flow is surging. Relative strength broke out on the move, a good corroboration of the price move.
Volume: 291.527K Avg Volume: 241.411K
BUY POINT: $85.75 Volume=362K Target=$98.65 Stop=$83.45
POSITION: KBU GQ - July $85c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/asei.html
Play Date: 03/09/2006
LLL (L-3 Communications--$83.44; +0.19; optionable): Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems, etc. Forecast to announce in late April.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-23-02 at $125. A bit low but a nice pattern is setting up a break higher.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lll.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. LLL is working on a handle to its 26 week base. It is holding the 18 day EMA (82.99) as it moves laterally on below average volume. This is one of the right sectors to be in as the market turns from growth areas. Money is looking for areas of more or less guaranteed returns, and defense and homeland security in this world are pretty close to that. Likely to take some more time to finish the handle, but want to be ready if it shows us the breakout.
Volume: 405.2K Avg Volume: 807.523K
BUY POINT: $84.75 Volume=1.2M Target=$97.95 Stop=$82.78
POSITION: LLL GQ - July $85c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lll.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/04/2006
ANSS (Ansys--$48.73; +1.27; optionable): Engineering simulation software for aerospace, auto, electronics, biomedical industries. Researching to pinpoint a date, but wanted to get it on with this breakout test.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 8-5-04 at $45.70.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Solid price move Thursday on some better volume, but trade was still well below average. If it can continue higher on improving trade it is worth starting some positions as the sector is right. To recap: ANSS surged higher in mid-February on strong earnings and an acquisition. That broke it out from a 13 week reverse head and shoulders base, sending ANSS to a new all-time high. It eased back to end January and start February, falling on low volume to test and hold the 10 and 18 day EMA.
Volume: 208.692K Avg Volume: 324.889K
BUY POINT: $48.89 Volume=475K Target=$56.95 Stop=$47.31
POSITION: QUS GJ - July $50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
Play Date: 02/23/2006
IEX (Idex--$46.99; -0.08; optionable): Engineered industrial products. Forecast the third week of April.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 4-22-04 at $44.80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iex.html
STATUS: Breakout test. IEX broke higher in late January, moving out of a nicely formed 18 week double bottom base. It has made a couple of bounces off the 18 day EMA (46.76) and has spent the past three weeks making a nice, easy test of that near support level. The range is tightening and it looks ready to make the next move. Strong money flow is still moving higher. Relative strength broke out with the stock, and it is ready to do it again.
Volume: 146K Avg Volume: 186.752K
BUY POINT: $48.05 Volume=200K Target=$55.35 Stop=$46.36
POSITION: IEX GI - July $45c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/iex.html
Play Date: 03/08/2006
MSTR (Microstrategy--$97.05; -1.05; optionable): Enterprise software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mstr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another very tight doji right on top of the 10 day EMA (96.96) as volume jumped up to average. Ignoring the selling and looking super as it sets back up. To recap: MSTR was one of the first stocks back in 2002 to announce a reverse split. The timing was right, and it helped energize MSTR and send it on this run. MSTR has formed the current 8 week base over the 50 day EMA (91.95), consolidating the mid-December breakout and run higher into early January. Strong volume as MSTR rallied to start the month and form the right side of the base, and now a modest, low volume pullback to the 10 day EMA (96.95), forming the handle to the base. Just being patient and waiting for the next volume surge to push it higher. Solid 3:1 accumulation in the base.
Volume: 385.862K Avg Volume: 343.27K
BUY POINT: $100.95 Volume=516K Target=$115 Stop=$96.68
POSITION: EOU GA - July $105c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mstr.html
Play Date: 03/07/2006
PLCE (Childrens Place--$50.25; -0.02; optionable): Apparel stores. Did not announce a split with earnings Thursday.
After Hours: $50.37
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-4-2000 at $48.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plce.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong earnings sent PLCE to the breakout point Thursday, but it could not hold the move. Still a very Solid pattern, nicely formed. It wasn't the day for stocks to hold their gains, and we are looking for PLCE to try the breakout once again. To recap: PLCE gapped higher last week on strong volume, completing the right side of its 11 week base. It has moved laterally the past three sessions on lower trade, forming the handle. This follows a 6 month cup base; nice base on base pattern setting PLCE for the breakout to a new all-time high. Excellent 5 to 2 accumulation in the base shows solid buying. Good complement to the strong money flow racing higher.
Volume: 851.682K Avg Volume: 682.761K
BUY POINT: $51.88 Volume=1M Target=$59.95 Stop=$48.39
POSITION: TUY FJ - June $50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/plce.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/07/2006
NVDA (Nvidia--$48.23; +0.25; optionable): Semiconductors. Splits 3:2 on 3-28-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
After Hours: $48.20
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Held nicely at the 10 day EMA (47.95) as the market sold. Real strength. Being patient and letting NVDA show us a strong move to enter more positions. To recap: NVDA is in a continuing uptrend, breaking out from a short 6 week base in late February. Nice test of that move is setting up the further run higher.
Volume: 4.455M Avg Volume: 4.193M
BUY POINT: $49.25 Volume=6.2M Target=$56.95 Stop=$46.78
POSITION: UVA FZ - June $47.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nvda.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/18/2006
PPDI (Pharmaceutical Product Dev.--$34.66; -0.25; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppdi.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Another stock that is in the right sector. PPDI is tightening up its range just below resistance at 35 with the 18 day EMA (34.42) rising from below. After a strong run in late January, this base has formed to set PPDI up for the next break higher. Low, low volume is ready to give way to a surge on the buying.
Volume: 302.66K Avg Volume: 735.941K
BUY POINT: $35.06 Volume=544K Target=$39.95 Stop=$34.41
POSITION: PJQ GG - July $35c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ppdi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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