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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: EZPW, ISE, PDS
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 03/09/2006
CRM (Salesforce.com--$37.51; -0.31; optionable): Customer relationship management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CRM is trying to set up a quick little 7 week base after a strong run from early November to mid-January. It dove lower in mid-February on a contract loss, but a week later earnings jumped and that started CRM back up the right side of its pattern. It moved to the early January gap up point and has started to slide laterally the past week on lower, below average volume. The range is tightening up as it works sideways, setting up the break higher. Positive accumulation in the pattern. May take another session or two to complete the move before showing us the breakout.
Volume: 1.103M Avg Volume: 1.921M
BUY POINT: $38.75 Volume=2.9M Target=$46.55 Stop=$36.32
POSITION: CRM HG - Aug. $35c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crm.html
Downside plays:
Play Date: 03/09/2006
ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch--$57.03; -0.47; optionable): Teen apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anf.html
STATUS: Put. ANF has already dropped sharply on its same store sales miss to start the month, and it has not done much to rebound. It has moved laterally the past three sessions after that tumble; hardly a sharp rebound. It may still rebound to recoup some of the losses, but ANF appears determined to fill that gap higher from back in early November. We have a feeling it is going to continue lower from here as it has failed to recover over a range of resistance formed after that November gap higher and money flow continues to dive. If it bounces we will let it and then have a higher entry point. If it falls from here, however, we will go after it. A move to the target lands us a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 1.49M Avg Volume: 2.398M
BUY POINT: $56.55 Volume=2.5M Target=$54 Stop=$57.45
POSITION: ANF PY - Apr. $57.50p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/anf.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ALNY 02/27 Test BO 16.55 +0.09 16.06 19.15 171K 335K 16.18
Current. Moving up after testing the breakout. Came off the day's high of 16.95
ASPV 03/04 Asc Bse 26.99 0 27.49 32.92 59K 523K 25.89
Current.
ATHR 02/28 FlyPlat 23.5 -0.45 21.98 26.45 2.6M 1.4M 22.32
Current. Tapped 25.13 at the intraday high, but gave it back on stronger above average volume. Meeting resistance at 24. May test back to 10 day MVA (22.80)
BABY 02/25 Asc Bse 20.92 +0.08 19.94 23.82 109K 213K 20.12
Current. Forming a handle after Monday's gap up. Holding some of the gain.
BLKB 03/08 Test BO 19.47 +0.26 19.44 22.95 430K 645K 18.52
Buy Not Issued. Although volume is increasing still not enough to enter the play today. If stock continues the move Monday on strong volume will still be a buy.
BMRN 02/18 Cup hdl 12.39 -0.2 12.75 15.25 1.1M 700K 12.57
Current. Pullback holding the 18 day MVA on strong volume surge. Testing the breakout. May continue to test back to 12
CBST 03/01 Flat 24.14 -0.57 23.95 28.75 710K 750K 23.28
Current. Pullback on average volume. Still in uptrend. may test back to 24.
CNQR 03/08 Test 50 16 +0.4 16.05 19.26 415K 473K 15.15
Buy Not Hit. Moving up on stronger above average volume after testing the 50 day MVA. Looking good.
CTXS 01/25 Test BO 32.17 -0.3 31.05 36.95 941K 3M 31.55
Current. Ease back on low volume. Should bounce from here.
CTXS 01/04 Test BO 32.17 -0.3 30.05 35.95 941K 2.2M 31.55
Current.
CYMI 02/06 Test 50 44.08 -0.1 47.12 57.95 809K 1.2M 45.22
Buy Not Issued.
CYMI 01/21 Test BO 44.08 -0.1 41.35 47.95 809K 1M 47.55
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday, but gave it back on average volume. Holding at support above the 50 day MVA. Should rebound off the 50 day MVA (43.55)
DIGE 03/08 Cup hdl 42.23 +0.22 43.65 51.95 163K 427K 40.92
Buy Not Hit. Still forming the handle.
DIOD 02/22 Asc Bse 37.01 +1.61 38.25 45.88 396K 550K 38.28
Exited.
DRIV 03/08 DB hdl 40.45 +0.42 40.08 48 1.2M 1.4M 38.11
Current. Continue with the uptrend on lower, but average volume.
EZPW 02/11 FlyPlat 25.36 +0.92 23.27 27.75 294K 267K 24.32
Current. Not paying attention to what direction the market is taking EZPW makes a great move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
FFIV 03/06 Test BO 64.97 -0.22 66.75 80.95 648K 1.4M 64.88
Buy Not Issued. Pullback on low volume holding at support just under the 18 day MVA. Still in the pattern.
GS 02/13 Test 18 141.7 -0.79 140.88 152 2.3M 4.4M 142.98
Trailing Stop.
ISE 02/21 Test 18 47.15 +1.83 40.33 48 730K 869K 43.88
Current.
MCHP 03/01 Test 50 35.25 -0.23 36.93 42.95 1.9M 2.2M 35.89
Current. Tapped 36.11 at the intraday high, but gave it back holding the 50 day MVA on slightly above average volume. Needs to hold here and rebound.
MER 02/14 Test BO 77.04 -0.1 74.45 84.85 5.1M 6.5M 76
Current. Tapped 77.99 at the intraday high, but gave it back showing a tight doji on the 10 day MVA on slightly above average volume. Meeting resistance at 78
MGI 02/22 DB hdl 27.61 -0.56 28.69 33.98 223K 550K 27.83
Current. Pullback below the 18 day MVA on low volume. Needs to hold the 50 day MVA (27.10)
MSTR 01/14 Test BO 97.05 -1.05 96.72 111 386K 493K 95.65
Current. Pullback showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on rising, but average volume. Testing the breakout. Doji may indicate a change in pattern to the upside.
MSTR 11/15 DB hdl 97.05 -1.05 81.22 91.25 386K 612K 95.65
Current.
NETL 03/04 Test BO 34.72 -0.82 38.55 46 365K 500K 36
Buy Not Issued. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep an eye on it.
NSM 03/01 Asc Bse 27.18 -0.85 29.28 34.55 16M 6.5M 28.21
Current.
NURO 02/28 Cup hdl 32.42 -2.36 38.65 45.55 200K 352K 36.44
Exited.
ORCC 03/04 Cup hdl 12.87 -0.18 13.55 16.25 132K 199K 12.85
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 13.19 at the intraday high, but gave it back on rising, but average volume. Still forming the handle.
PDLI 03/08 Asc Bse 32.5 -0.27 32.91 39.32 4.1M 1.9M 30.61
Current.
PKE 02/25 Test BO 28.61 -0.1 29.62 35.55 87K 185K 28.31
Buy Not Hit.
QCOM 03/08 Rv H&S 48.1 -1.43 49.92 58.95 17M 19M 47.55
Buy Not Issued. Gave back yesterday's great move on much lower, but above average volume. Holding just above the 10 day MVA. Should rebound from 47.85 (10 day MVA)
QUIK 03/04 Cup hdl 5.03 +0.06 5.29 6.48 188K 360K 4.92
Buy Not Hit.
RADS 02/25 Asc Tri 13.91 -0.48 14.89 17.95 225K 496K 14.22
Current. Pullback on rising, but below average volume. May continue to test back to 50 day MVA (13.40), but will need to hold here.
RSTI 02/18 FlyPlat 49.84 +0.1 51.95 59.95 71K 173K 51.92
Exited.
RVSN 02/14 Test BO 19.49 -0.53 20.78 24.88 267K 500K 19.89
Exited.
RVSN 01/07 Test 18 19.49 -0.53 17.45 20.95 267K 471K 19.89
Trailing Stop.
SLAB 03/01 Test BO 48.23 +0.09 50.76 60.95 1.9M 1.8M 47.68
Buy Not Issued.
SMSI 02/27 Test BO 8.99 +0.19 9.29 11.25 242K 300K 8.64
Buy Not Issued.
SNDK 01/14 Test BO 53.53 -0.42 73.72 89.45 9M 21M 71.55
Exited.
SNDK 12/20 DB hdl 53.53 -0.42 60.69 72.38 9M 20M 71.55
Exited.
TECH 02/27 PreAnn 58.81 -0.44 60.57 71.88 96K 374K 58.88
Buy Not Hit. Ease back on low volume. Still in the pattern. Needs to hold the 50 day MVA (58.30)
TKC 02/15 FlyPlat 17.5 +0.35 18.55 22.25 572K 635K 18.39
Current. Gapped up for a nice gain showing a doji on stronger above average volume. Moving up after testing the 50 day MVA.
TRID 03/07 Test 18 26.37 -0.94 28.11 33.75 1.3M 2M 26.85
Buy Not Hit.
TRID 02/06 Test 18 26.37 -0.94 26.22 31.72 1.3M 2.5M 27.05
Trailing Stop.
TRMB 03/06 Test BO 40.87 -1.21 42.75 50.88 366K 450K 40.58
Buy Not Hit. Pullback holding the 18 day MVA on rising, but average volume. Still in the pattern.
TRN 03/07 Test 18 52.8 -0.21 54.35 62.95 435K 636K 52.32
Buy Not Hit.
VTAL 03/04 Test BO 32.14 +0.34 32.98 39.55 141K 269K 31.89
Buy Not Hit.
VTIV 02/08 Cup hdl 29.13 +0.91 27.85 32.65 3.6M 614K 27.72
Explosive move on excellent volume surge.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
LTR 02/25 Put 94.66 +0.55 93.15 90.85 604K 600K 92.65
Current. Bounced on low volume holding the 18 day MVA. Should rollover here.
NDE 02/13 Put 38.23 -0.05 38.78 36.55 640K 775K 39.45
Buy Not Issued. Moving down the 10 day MVA on lower below average volume. Volume was not there to enter the play. Will let stock take a relief bounce.
PDS 02/22 Put 29 -0.38 31.48 30 926K 550K 30.12
Target Hit. Took the rest of the position off the table with a
nice gain.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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