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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: Some really nice pullbacks ready to make the moves.
Good movers: DAKT; ITG; WIRE
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 03/11/2006
CHRW (C.H. Robinson Worldwide--$44.85; +0.77; optionable): Air delivery and freight
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chrw.html
STATUS: Breakout test. CHRW has already made us some money this year, and it is setting up to makes us some more. It broke out from a 10 week cup with handle in early February and rallied to 46. It has spent March fading back to test that move, holding above the 18 day EMA (43.92) as it makes the lower volume pullback. No sellers given the low volume. A nice volume spike Wednesday as CHRW reached below the 18 day EMA but snapped back to close above that level. That volume reversal shows us the buyers using the dip to pile in. Friday CHRW started higher on rising but still below average volume. Looking for strong volume as it continues the breakout run. Excellent money flow is leading higher. Relative strength broke out with the price and it looks ready to do the same, a good bullish indication.
Volume: 682.525K Avg Volume: 876.356K
BUY POINT: $45.25 Volume=1.1M Target=$52.55 Stop=$43.69
POSITION: CJQ HI - July $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chrw.html
New Leader Play: Powerful and could give us a split announcement. Hard to gauge as information from China is difficult at times.
Play Date: 03/11/2006
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$75.50; +2.05; optionable): Chinese travel services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Reported some strong earnings growth in late February, and that broke this 2 year old stock out of its 5 month cup with handle base. It surged just over 75 on strong trade and then spent the past two weeks coming back to test, holding roughly at the 10 day EMA (73.99) near support. Excellent 7 to 3 accumulation in the base shows strong buying. Money flow is racing higher as well, even as the stock consolidates. Strong stock that is just about finished with this breather before resuming the breakout run. The breakout test is one of our favorite entry points as it shows the big money is still interested even after the breakout and even at a higher price.
Volume: 123.332K Avg Volume: 288.687K
BUY POINT: $76.21 Volume=400K Target=$88.95 Stop=$72.38
POSITION: QCT FO - June $75c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctrp.html
Downside Play:
Play Date: 03/11/2006
KG (King Pharmaceuticals--$17.94; +0.05; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kg.html
STATUS: Put. The generics are coming, the generics are coming. For KG, the generics are here. The company posted pretty crappy earnings, a net loss, and was hammered like a cheap nail to end February. It is notable that KG had rallied to its 2004 high and was then led to slaughter. Still overhead supply at that point. It made a two week rebound and spent the last three days of last week below the 50 day EMA (18.04), unable to break back into more favorable territory for a stock wanting to advance. Volume fell lower and lower on the rebound. Money flow dove into the gutter. This pattern looks weak, but we want to see volume kick up as it moves lower to show it is resuming the downside move. Thus far it is the perfect weak rebound. Renewed selling volume here shows the sellers are not going to leave it alone. A move to the target is a pretty conservative move, keeping it above the recent lows, but still lands us a 55%ish gain. If it continues to drop we will take some gain and let the rest ride lower similar to PDS.
Volume: 1.328M Avg Volume: 1.958M
BUY POINT: $17.75 Volume=2M Target=$16.55 Stop=$18.11
POSITION: KG PW - Apr. $17.50p (-38 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kg.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Lots of stocks still in position for split announcements. We have some good information on many though some are wild cards, i.e. no split history but hearing word of a possible split announcement. All are good leadership quality stocks that can make us money if they show us the breakout moves.
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AGN: Has taken over INMD now & looking for a potential split in June.
ANN: Forecast 3-10-06. No split announcement but ANN looking sharp w/strong earnings & nice gain.
ANSS: Researching exact date.
ASEI: Researching to pinpoint a date (Just announced earnings on 2-8-06)
BLUD: Researching date.
BR: Forecast 4-27-06
CEPH: Just announced earnings in February. Researching next gate. Nice tight lateral move.
CNQ: Forecast 3-16-06. Holding steady on the 50 day EMA. May give us some upside this week.
DAKT: Researching to pinpoint the date. Nice move to start the play and still rising.
DRI: Forecast 3-20-06. A break through 41.35 on 1.5M shares would be a start.
FRK: Forecast 4-25-06 after the close or 5-3-06. Trying to get its footing. Huge volume Friday is making this very interesting.
GG: Forecast 3-10-06. No announcement but held the 50 day EMA Friday and bounced. Looking for another possible entry point this week.
GILD: Forecast for April
GS: Forecast 3-16-06 before the open. Showing a doji at some support at 140. Want to see it back over 143 on strong volume to consider a new play.
IEX: Tentatively forecast for third week of April. Setting up nicely
LLL: Forecast late April
PLCE: Researching the date
PNRA: Forecast 4-12-06. Still waiting, waiting, waiting for a move to buy into.
POOL: Researching next date
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/11/2006
AGN (Allergan--$116.07; +2.27; optionable): Drugs, pharmaceuticals, etc. Forecast for a potential announcement in late April or June. Will pinpoint the date when we get more information.
BACKGROUND: Announced its only 2:1 split on 10-21-99 at $107.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agn.html
After Hours: $115.97
STATUS: Cup. AGN settled its litigation with ACL last week, and Friday AGN surged on strong volume, heading toward the breakout from 10 week base that formed along the 50 day EMA (110.01). Positive 3:1 accumulation shows buyers were moving in as it consolidated its November and December run that followed the breakout from another base. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout as well. With the litigation out of the way and its acquisition of INMD cleared by the FTC, AGN can now focus on share management, and a split is in order.
Volume: 2.586M Avg Volume: 1.021M
BUY POINT: $116.85 Volume=1.4M Target=$133.95 Stop=$112.55
POSITION: AGN GC - July $115c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/agn.html
Play Date: 03/11/2006
GPRO (Gen Probe--$51.93; +1.93; optionable): Diagnosis products. Forecast to announce a split in May or June.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 9-5-03 at $59.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpro.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. GPRO has formed a 9 week base as the tail end of a ranging 8 month double bottom. Accumulation in the big base is excellent at 15 to 5, showing a lot of buying setting up the next breakout to a new all-time high. We made a ton off of GPRO in 2004 and more in 2005 on its two strong runs, but we really like this position here as it is set to clear all resistance and move to a new all-time high. It has the buying behind it. Friday it started higher on a shot of rising, average trade. Looks ready to try the move.
Volume: 377.958K Avg Volume: 349.942K
BUY POINT: $52.35 Volume=525K Target=$62 Stop=$49.97
POSITION: PSU HJ - Aug. $50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gpro.html
Play Date: 03/11/2006
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$62.58; +0.52; optionable): Semi-urban to rural Home Depot. Forecast to announce a split in May.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-21-03 at $49.50. Before that a 2:1 split on 7-18-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. This stock price was $57.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsco.html
STATUS: Ascending base. TSCO gets some bad press about its ability to grow, but there is a problem with that analysis: it is wrong. TSCO reported great results in early February and it blasted higher, exploding out of a 6 month base. It has moved laterally since that move, consolidating the gain but refusing to sell off. This month it has eased back to the 18 day EMA (61.56) on low, below average volume. We are anticipating another breakout attempt over the next couple of weeks. Accumulation in the current lateral move is a strong 3:0. That tells us that even though it is moving laterally, there is quiet accumulation ongoing as buyers take the shares the short term players are selling after the strong move higher.
Volume: 217.046K Avg Volume: 399.474K
BUY POINT: $63.45 Volume=599K Target=$72.95 Stop=$61.39
POSITION: QTF GL - July $60c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsco.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/04/2006
ANSS (Ansys--$48.47; -0.26; optionable): Engineering simulation software for aerospace, auto, electronics, biomedical industries. Researching to pinpoint a date, but wanted to get it on with this breakout test.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 8-5-04 at $45.70.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Took the day off Friday after a nice higher volume surge Thursday. Solid and ready to move in as it makes the move this week. To recap: ANSS surged higher in mid-February on strong earnings and an acquisition. That broke it out from a 13 week reverse head and shoulders base, sending ANSS to a new all-time high. It eased back to end January and start February, falling on low volume to test and hold the 10 and 18 day EMA.
Volume: 65.324K Avg Volume: 324.715K
BUY POINT: $48.89 Volume=475K Target=$56.95 Stop=$47.31
POSITION: QUS GJ - July $50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
Play Date: 02/23/2006
IEX (Idex--$47.02; +0.03; optionable): Engineered industrial products. Forecast the third week of April.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 4-22-04 at $44.80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iex.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Another nice tight doji at the 18 day EMA (46.79) as volume edged up toward average. Looks ready. To recap: IEX broke higher in late January, moving out of a nicely formed 18 week double bottom base. It has made a couple of bounces off the 18 day EMA (46.76) and has spent the past three weeks making a nice, easy test of that near support level. The range is tightening and it looks ready to make the next move. Strong money flow is still moving higher. Relative strength broke out with the stock, and it is ready to do it again.
Volume: 186.2K Avg Volume: 186.8K
BUY POINT: $48.05 Volume=200K Target=$55.35 Stop=$46.36
POSITION: IEX GI - July $45c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/iex.html
Play Date: 03/08/2006
MSTR (Microstrategy--$99.5; +2.45; optionable): Enterprise software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mstr.html
After Hours: $99.63
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Solid move Friday on another above average volume session. MSTR has set up very well and is ready to make the next breakout and run. To recap: MSTR was one of the first stocks back in 2002 to announce a reverse split. The timing was right, and it helped energize MSTR and send it on this run. MSTR has formed the current 8 week base over the 50 day EMA (92.25), consolidating the mid-December breakout and run higher into early January. Strong volume as MSTR rallied to start the month and form the right side of the base, and now a modest, low volume pullback to the 10 day EMA (97.43), forming the handle to the base. Looks like the next volume push higher is here. Solid 3:1 accumulation in the base.
Volume: 386.079K Avg Volume: 349.436K
BUY POINT: $100.95 Volume=516K Target=$115 Stop=$96.68
POSITION: EOU GA - July $105c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mstr.html
Play Date: 03/01/2006
SLAB (Silicon Labs--$48.2; -0.03; optionable): Semiconductors. Researching to pinpoint the date.
BACKGROUND: A new issue in 2000, SLAB has yet to split its stock.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slab.html
STATUS: Test breakout. SLAB has formed a short 7 week cup with handle after the late January breakout, setting up the next move higher. It ended the week moving laterally over the 18 day EMA (48.01) as many semiconductors headed lower. Very solid leadership-like action. Now we see if it can deliver the breakout for us. To recap: SLAB gapped higher in late January on a strong earnings prognosis. It rallied to 52.50 and then faded back the past 7 weeks to test the move and fill most of the gap. It held mostly near the 18 day EMA, testing toward the 50 day EMA on an intraday basis and then rebounding. Strong money flow continues to lead higher. Accumulation is positive. Looking to move in on a continued move higher on solid volume.
Volume: 723.24K Avg Volume: 1.231M
BUY POINT: $50.76 Volume=1.8M Target=$60.95 Stop=$47.68
POSITION: QFJ GJ - July $50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slab.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/21/2006
DBRN (Dress Barn--$43.74; +0.49; optionable): Apparel stores. Splits 2:1 on 4-3-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dbrn.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume jumped up above average last week as DBRN tested and held the 50 day EMA (42.52) and bounced higher to end the week. Good action in an overall weaker market. Looking for volume to kick back up this week as DBRN continues the bounce off the 50 day EMA and gives us an entry. Want to see a more explosive move.
Volume: 316.327K Avg Volume: 731.315K
BUY POINT: $44.11 Volume=1.2M Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.55
POSITION: DTQ FI - June $45c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dbrn.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/11/2006
COH (Coach--$36.50; +1.17; optionable): Handbags, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
After Hours: $36.75
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. It took awhile, but Friday COH finally showed us the type of move we are looking for. Volume jumped above average for the first time in a month as COH gapped higher and headed toward the breakout from its 18 week cup with handle (a very elongated handle) base. Money flow is leading sharply higher once more. It is ready for us to move into this week it looks like, just a month after we started looking at it.
Volume: 2.71M Avg Volume: 2.536M
BUY POINT: $36.88 Volume=4.1M Target=$42.95 Stop=$35.15
POSITION: COH HG - Aug. $35c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Play Date: 02/18/2006
PPDI (Pharmaceutical Product Dev.--$35.32; +0.66; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppdi.html
After Hours: $35.36
STATUS: Ascending base. Made the price move Friday but volume has yet to follow. Looking for that trade to pick up this week. To recap: Another stock that is in the right sector. PPDI is tightening up its range just below resistance at 35 with the 18 day EMA (34.51) rising from below. After a strong run in late January, this base has formed to set PPDI up for the next break higher. Low, low volume is ready to give way to a surge on the buying.
Volume: 369.279K Avg Volume: 698.644K
BUY POINT: New: $35.55 (orig. $35.06) Volume=544K Target=$39.95 Stop=$34.41
POSITION: PJQ GG - July $35c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ppdi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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