|
|
us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CTRP; CTXS; FFIV; MSTR
Strong plays:
1) BKHM: Nice test looks about over.
2) DXPE: Volume moved higher as DXPE heads toward the breakout.
3) RMTI: Excellent test looks ready to head higher.
4) CRM: Jumping higher. Looking for volume to follow
5) DIGE: Volume is starting higher in the lateral test.
6) VTAL: Solid volume. It is now ready.
7) PSTI: Turning back over.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 03/13/2006
ACAD (Acadia Pharmaceuticals--$15.37; +0.13; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acad.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Volume moved back above average Monday as ACAD flirted with the breakout from its 6 week base. Rather typical action Monday as stocks moved higher but then faded to the close. This pattern formed after a big gap higher in late January; ACAD has refused to give up its gains, instead making higher lows above the 18 day EMA (14.72), building pressure from below for a breakout above the constant highs near 15.50. Solid 2 to 0 accumulation (2 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying during the consolidation, indicating longer term holders are picking up the short term sellers' shares. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength is ready to break higher once more.
Volume: 704K Avg Volume: 453.556K
BUY POINT: $15.72 Volume=675K Target=$18.95 Stop=$14.62
POSITION: AQY IC - Sept. $15c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acad.html
Play Date: 03/13/2006
BKHM (Bookham Technology--$8.35; +0.07; optionable): Optical components, subsystems for communications networks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bkhm.html
After Hours: $8.38
STATUS: Breakout test. BKHM broke higher from its most recent base in two weeks back, rallying hard and then fading to test, coming back to the 10 day EMA (8.17) on mostly lower trade. It had made a series of bases starting last fall, and continues to perform. Solid fundamentals to go with the price moves. Really improving its sales and earnings and the price is starting to show the appreciation.
Volume: 2.579M Avg Volume: 1.807M
BUY POINT: $8.68 Volume=2.3M Target=$10.72 Stop=$8.11
POSITION: BFQ GU - July $7.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bkhm.html
Play Date: 03/13/2006
DXPE (DXP Enterprises--$24.66; +1.18; no options): Maintenance, repair, and operating products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dxpe.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. DXPE has formed a base on base pattern with the current 8 week base on the heels of a 14 week cup base. Excellent 7 to 3 accumulation spanning the two patterns shows plenty of buyers ready to bid the price further and send DXPE on the breakout to a new all-time high. Strong fundamentals to go with the strong technical pattern.
Volume: 196.486K Avg Volume: 174.439K
BUY POINT: $25.55 Volume=262K Target=$32.45 Stop=$22.69
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dxpe.html
Play Date: 03/13/2006
RMTI (Rockwell Medial Technologies--$5.83; +0.15; no options): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmti.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. RMTI broke out at the end of February, immediately tested, but then moved higher again, holding the breakout to a new all-time high. The breakout came from a nicely formed 15 week cup with handle along the 50 day EMA (4.96), a base that followed a much longer 19 month base. Nice action and excellent 5 to 1 accumulation in the recent base (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows buying continues. The 10 day EMA (5.61) has risen to the stock, catching up with the breakout move. Looking for that to send it higher once more. Relative strength is already making the breakout, a bullish sign for the stock price to follow.
Volume: 35.603K Avg Volume: 85K
BUY POINT: $5.98 Volume=135K Target=$7.38 Stop=$5.56
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rmti.html
New Downside Plays:
Play Date: 03/13/2006
ECLG (Ecollege.Com--$18.62; -1.34; optionable): Information services to post-secondary education industry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eclg.html
STATUS: Put. ECLG breached the 50 day EMA (19.89) last week then rallied back on low volume to test that break lower. It was in anticipation of earnings that were quite less than the street wanted. ECLG dove lower Monday on huge volume but managed to recover a good chunk of the loss of the low (17.22). It may rebound further, but the move last week showed it was weakening and we feel this is just the start of the downside. Ready to start the play if it moves lower from here. A run to the target lands us a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 956.76K Avg Volume: 175.613K
BUY POINT: $18.51 Volume=180K Target=$17 Stop=$19.04
POSITION: EGU PD - Apr. $20p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/eclg.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 03/11/2006
AH (Armor Holdings--$56.5; -0.43; optionable): Body armor and vehicle armor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ah.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Holding above the gap up point at 56 on continued below average volume as AH continues setting up for the next break higher. To recap: A steady supplier to the US war and security efforts with top notch fundamentals to match its technical pattern. AH broke higher out of a long, 13 month base to start February. It enjoyed a 2 year run up to that base and it needed the consolidation. It broke higher in February and surged as sales continued to grow. It is making its second serious test of the break higher, holding above the 18 day EMA (55.53) the past three weeks as AH eases back on lower, below average volume to test the last run higher. During this pullback money flow has remained strong. The low volume shows no big holders want to give it up. Looks ready to resume the breakout move after taking the pit stop to catch its breath.
Volume: 413.3K Avg Volume: 579.305K
BUY POINT: $57.55 Volume=750K Target=$68 Stop=$55.28
POSITION: AH HK - Aug. $55c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ah.html
Play Date: 03/09/2006
CRM (Salesforce.com--$38.89; +1.06; optionable): Customer relationship management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Started higher Monday on rising but still below average volume. Starting to make the move, and if we get some more volume it is a buy. To recap: CRM is trying to set up a quick little 7 week base after a strong run from early November to mid-January. It dove lower in mid-February on a contract loss, but a week later earnings jumped and that started CRM back up the right side of its pattern. It moved to the early January gap up point and has started to slide laterally the past week on lower, below average volume. The range is tightening up as it works sideways, setting up the break higher. Positive accumulation in the pattern. May take another session or two to complete the move before showing us the breakout.
Volume: 1.73M Avg Volume: 1.917M
BUY POINT: New: $38.96 (orig. $38.75) Volume=2.9M Target=$46.55 Stop=$36.32
POSITION: CRM HG - Aug. $35c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crm.html
Play Date: 03/08/2006
DIGE (Digene Corp.--$42.16; +0.43; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dige.html
After Hours: $42.12
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume is edging higher as DIGE holds the 10 day EMA (41.88) and probes the breakout. Looking for that volume to continue as it makes the next break higher. To recap: DIGE has used the market selling the past two weeks to work laterally over the 10 day EMA, forming a handle to a 29 month cup with handle base. It likely has more work to do on the handle, but last Wednesday volume spiked higher as DIGE tested the 18 day EMA (40.70) and rebounded for a gain. That is a shakeout followed by buyers ready to move into the stock. Strong fundamentals. Strong stock.
Volume: 267.217K Avg Volume: 284.074K
BUY POINT: $43.65 Volume=427K Target=$51.95 Stop=$40.92
POSITION: QDG FH - June $40c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dige.html
Play Date: 03/04/2006
ORCC (Online Resources--$13.1; +0.21; no options): Outsourced internet financial technology services to financial service providers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orcc.html
After Hours: $13.14
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume remains low but ORCC started edging higher off the 50 day EMA (12.66) Monday. Still a super pullback and just looking for volume to move as it starts higher. To recap: ORCC has formed a short but nice 6 week base on top of the 50 day EMA, this base forming right on the heels of the breakout from an 11 week base in January. Nice base on base pattern, and they really work to weed out the sellers and place the stock in the hands of strong holders. ORCC bounced off the 50 day EMA a week back and is now testing that move, making the final shakeout. Strong 4 to 0 accumulation shows all buying in the current base. Strong money flow is moving higher ahead of the price. Solid leader with strong fundamentals ready to break to a 6 year high.
Volume: 52.141K Avg Volume: 123.962K
BUY POINT: $13.55 Volume=199K Target=$16.25 Stop=$12.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/orcc.html
Play Date: 03/04/2006
QUIK (Quicklogic--$4.98; -0.01; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/quik.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Another very tight doji right on the 10 day EMA (4.97) on very low below average volume. It is ripe for the move. To recap: QUIK is in one of the hotter sub-sectors of the semiconductor sector, and it is working on a weeklong handle to its 9 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (4.67) as support. Price/volume action is great; volume died off in February as QUIK bottomed over the 50 day EMA and then surged as it formed the right side of the base. Low volume in the handle overall punctuated with a volume jump here and there. Solid action. This base consolidates the January breakout from a 7 month cup with handle as well. QUIK is not what you would call a serious market leader, but its sector is hot and QUIK has set up well to give us a breakout and a really nice gain in short order.
Volume: 64.312K Avg Volume: 239.411K
BUY POINT: $5.29 Volume=360K Target=$6.48 Stop=$4.92
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/quik.html
Play Date: 03/04/2006
VTAL (Vital Images--$32.46; +0.61; optionable): Visualization/analysis solutions for clinical diagnosis, disease screening, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vtal.html
After Hours: $32.38
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Volume jumped back above average Monday as VTAL started off the 18 day EMA (32.08) that it used as support in the test of its mid-February breakout 14 week ascending base. Money flow is running higher ahead of the price and VTAL looks ready to follow.
Volume: 247.951K Avg Volume: 182.648K
BUY POINT: $32.98 Volume=269K Target=$39.55 Stop=$31.89
POSITION: HXQ GF - July $30c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vtal.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/11/2006
PSTI (Per-Se Technologies--$24.02; -0.29; optionable): Healthcare solutions to physicians and hospitals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psti.html
After Hours: $24.07
STATUS: Put. Volume edged higher but was still below average as PSTI has tested the 10 day EMA (24.50) and started lower Monday. Looks ready to continue the fall. To recap: PSTI made a lower high in late February, but was not looking too bad until it reported earnings and declining net income. That sent the stock gapping lower to the 200 day SMA (22.27). That plunge occurred last Tuesday, and it spent the rest of the week rebounding, filling most of the gap by Friday when it reached up and touched the 10 day EMA on the intraday high. Volume has steadily declined on the move, falling below average late in the week. This is a classic gap fill and test of the breakdown, the old 'kiss goodbye' before the return to selling. We are going to move in when it shows a return to the downside and ride it to the target for a 40%ish gain. That keeps us above the 200 day SMA, and if it is heading lower through the target we will let it run to the 200 day SMA.
Volume: 328.643K Avg Volume: 559.782K
BUY POINT: Lower from the close (orig. $24.05) Volume=560K Target=$22.65 Stop=$24.65
POSITION: MQA PE - Apr. $25p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/psti.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock recommendation
|
