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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ACAD; ASPV; BMRN; CTRP; DIGE; DXPE; HOLX; VTIV
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 03/16/2006
AMLN (Amylin Pharmaceuticals--$46.14; +2.25; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amln.html
After Hours: $46
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders breakout. AMLN broke out of its 11 week base Thursday on strong, above average volume, moving to a new all-time high along the way. Positive accumulation, strong fundamentals, solid money flow. Relative strength is breaking out on the move, a good sign for the stock. A sector that is heating up nicely.
Volume: 3.426M Avg Volume: 2.081M
BUY POINT: $46.34 Volume=2M Target=$53.95 Stop=$44.15
POSITION: AQM GI - July $45c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amln.html
Play Date: 03/16/2006
DO (Diamond Offshore--$83.96; +1.81; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
After Hours: $83
STATUS: Double bottom. Energy went through a two month correction and the strong stocks held the 50 day EMA. DO is one of those, forming a 7 week double bottom along that key support level (77.56). Positive 2:0 accumulation in the pattern shows net buying, setting up the next break higher. Thursday volume rose (but was still below average) as DO rallied past the 'hump' in the pattern at 83.78. Looking for continued strong volume as DO moves higher.
Volume: 2.621M Avg Volume: 2.614M
BUY POINT: $84.22 Volume=3M Target=$99.95 Stop=$80.55
POSITION: DO IR - Sept. $90c (52 delta) or DO FQ - June $85c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/do.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/16/2006
SMH (Semiconductor Holders Trust--$35.62; -1.21; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smh.html
STATUS: Put. SMH is breaking down from a head and shoulders pattern of sorts that formed over the past 13 weeks. It broke through the 200 day SMA (36.57) last week, rallied to test this week, and then failed miserably Thursday on above average volume. May try to rebound some Friday after that hard drop, but it looks to have cracked the support and looking for it to trend lower some more. A move to the initial target lands us a 50%ish move.
Volume: 22.128M Avg Volume: 17.825M
BUY POINT: $35.48 Volume=20M Target=$34 Stop=$36.95
POSITION: SMH QG - May $35p (-39 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/smh.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
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http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACAD 03/13 Asc Tri 17.8 +0.94 16.15 19.45 653K 675K 16.95
Current. Another great move up the 10 day MVA on average volume making an all time high.
AH 03/11 Test 18 57.67 -0.17 57.55 68 462K 750K 55.28
Buy Not Issued. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on rising, but below average volume. Volume not there to enter the play. If stock makes a breakaway move tomorrow on strong volume will be a buy.
ALNY 02/27 Test BO 16.89 +0.1 16.06 19.15 187K 335K 16.18
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Meeting some resistance at 17.
ASPV 03/04 Asc Bse 28.87 +0.6 27.49 32.92 207K 523K 26.92
Current.
ATHR 02/28 FlyPlat 22.64 -0.82 21.98 26.45 2.2M 1.4M 22.97
Current. Pullback tapping 22.11 at the intraday low and rallied back holding above the 18 day MVA on strong volume surge. May continue to test back to 18 day MVA (22.20)
BABY 02/25 Asc Bse 20.21 -0.34 19.94 23.82 189K 213K 20.12
Current. Pullback to hold the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume. testing the breakout. May test back to 20.
BKHM 03/13 Test BO 8.08 -0.19 8.68 10.72 2.6M 2.3M 8.11
Buy Not Hit. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on slightly above average volume. Still in the pattern. May test back to 8
BMRN 02/18 Cup hdl 13.92 +1.47 12.75 15.25 11M 700K 13.55
Current. Huge gap up (14.99) but gave much of it back on very strong volume surge. Did finish with a nice gain making a 52 week high.
BWNG 03/15 FlyPlat 12.33 -0.07 12.95 15.55 1.7M 2.7M 12.04
Buy Not Hit. Pullback on lower below average volume. Still in the pattern.
CBST 03/01 Flat 24.22 -0.04 23.95 28.75 417K 750K 23.28
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave ti back on rising, but below average volume. Still in uptrend.
CRM 03/09 Cup hdl 38.94 -0.02 38.75 46.55 1.4M 2.9M 36.32
Buy Not Issued. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a tight doji on low volume. Needs low volume pullback to the 10 day MVA (38.24)
CTRP 03/11 Test BO 81.44 +1.71 77.2 88.95 351K 400K 77.22
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume making a 52 week high. Came off the day's high of 83.55.
CTXS 01/25 Test BO 35.26 +0.27 31.05 36.95 2.5M 3M 33.55
Current. Gapped up at the open showing a tight doji on lower, but average volume. Continue with the uptrend.
CTXS 01/04 Test BO 35.26 +0.27 30.05 35.95 2.5M 2.2M 33.35
Current.
CYMI 02/06 Test 50 44.74 -2.19 47.12 57.95 859K 1.2M 45.22
Buy Not Issued.
CYMI 01/21 Test BO 44.74 -2.19 41.35 47.95 859K 1M 47.55
Current. Thudded down holding below the 18 day MVA on rising, but average volume. May continue to test back to 50 day MVA (44)
DIGE 03/08 Cup hdl 43.6 +1.02 43.65 51.95 271K 427K 41.15
Entered today. Nice move up on lower, below average volume.
DRIV 03/08 DB hdl 39.84 -0.76 40.08 48 1M 1.4M 39.21
Current. Pullback on rising volume to hold the 10 day MVA. Should rebound from here.
DXPE 03/13 Cup hdl 29.99 +1.31 25.87 32.78 285K 262K 28.21
Current. Gapped down at the open and rallied back for a nice move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but strong volume.
EZPW 02/11 FlyPlat 25.91 +0.12 23.27 27.75 105K 267K 24.98
Current. Beginning to form a base on low volume holding the gain.
FFIV 03/06 Test BO 68.07 -0.83 67.38 81.95 550K 1.4M 65.69
Current. Ease back on rising, but below average volume. Moving up after testing the 18 day MVA.
FORM 03/15 Asc Bse 35.36 -2.84 39.12 46 1.7M 1M 37.42
Buy Not Hit. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
GPN 03/14 Asc Bse 52.78 +1.08 53.45 61.95 716K 775K 51.31
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back for a nice gain on strong volume. Came off the day's high of 53.51. Still in the pattern.
HOLX 03/15 Flat 53.06 +2.06 53.09 61.95 1.5M 1M 49.92
Entered today. Gapped up for a nice gain on very strong volume surge. Did however come off the day's high of 54.79
ISE 02/21 Test 18 47.1 -4.93 40.33 48 2.6M 869K 49.95
Trailing Stop.
MER 02/14 Test BO 77.75 -1.05 74.45 84.85 5.6M 6.5M 77.24
Current. Pullback to hold the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. May test back to 18 day MVA (77)
MGI 02/22 DB hdl 29.19 +0.23 28.69 33.98 348K 550K 28.08
Current. Continue with the uptrend on rising, but average volume.
MSTR 01/14 Test BO 104.88 -2.7 96.72 111 248K 493K 103
Current. Ease back on lower below average volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to 10 day MVA (102.78)
MSTR 11/15 DB hdl 104.88 -2.7 81.22 91.25 248K 612K 103
Current.
NDAQ 03/15 Asc Bse 44.26 -0.51 45.65 54 1.9M 2M 42.55
Entered today. Gapped up at the open and hitting the buy point intraday, but gave it back on average volume. Still in uptrend.
NIHD 03/14 Test 50 53.41 -0.12 53.39 62.95 1.2M 1.8M 50.64
Current.
NSM 03/01 Asc Bse 27.26 -1.06 29.28 34.55 5M 6.5M 28.21
Current.
ORCC 03/04 Cup hdl 13.65 +0.18 13.62 16.35 121K 199K 12.89
Current. Continue to trend higher on lower below average volume. Came off the day's high of 13.89
PDLI 03/08 Asc Bse 31.74 -0.11 32.91 39.32 1.3M 1.9M 30.88
Current.
PKE 02/25 Test BO 29.8 -0.06 29.62 35.55 64K 185K 28.31
Buy Not Issued.
QCOM 03/08 Rv H&S 49.87 +0.06 49.92 58.95 24M 19M 47.55
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 51.18 at the intraday high, but gave much of it back on stronger above average volume. Meeting some resistance at 50
QUIK 03/04 Cup hdl 5.08 -0.06 5.29 6.48 150K 360K 4.92
Buy Not Issued.
RADS 02/25 Asc Tri 13.91 +0.32 14.89 17.95 193K 496K 14.22
Current. Tapped 13.91 at the intraday low and rallied back on rising, but below average volume. Rebounding off the 50 day MVA.
RMTI 03/13 FlyPlat 6.54 +0.42 5.98 7.38 106K 135K 5.56
Buy Not Issued. Surged Wednesday on low volume and again Thursday.
Wanted to see more volume but it moved nonetheless.
Dropping and will watch how well it tests.
SLAB 03/01 Test BO 47.58 -2.61 50.76 60.95 978K 1.8M 47.68
Buy Not Issued. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep an eye on it.
SMSI 02/27 Test BO 9 -0.1 9.29 11.25 231K 300K 8.64
Buy Not Issued.
TECH 02/27 PreAnn 59.5 +0.14 60.57 71.88 111K 374K 58.88
Buy Not Hit. Moving up after testing the 50 day MVA on low volume. Meeting resistance at 60
TRID 03/07 Test 18 27.53 -0.91 28.11 33.75 1.4M 2M 26.85
Buy Not Issued.
TRMB 03/06 Test BO 42.82 +0.72 42.75 50.88 334K 450K 40.58
Buy Not Issued. Moving up the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. Volume not there to enter the play. If stock continues the move tomorrow with strong volume will be a buy.
USG 03/10 Asc Bse 94.18 +0.18 87.88 99.95 765K 1.6M 92
Target Hit. Took some interim option gain after USG posted gains
for the fifth session in a row. Ended the session with
a doji and that means it is likely to come back and
test some.
VTAL 03/04 Test BO 33.57 +0.4 33.12 39.85 364K 269K 32.21
Current.
VTIV 02/08 Cup hdl 32.76 +1.01 27.85 32.65 746K 614K 31.55
Another surge but on lower volume. Hit the initial
target so a good time to take a bit off the table and
move up the stops some, letting this really strong
mover work.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ANF 03/09 Put 57.17 +0.27 56.55 54 2.5M 2.5M 57.45
Current. Forming a base below the 10 day MVA on average volume.
ECLG 03/13 Put 19.58 +0.13 19.22 17.48 205K 180K 19.95
Buy Not Hit.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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