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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BMRN; CTXS; DRIV; EZPW; FFIV; MSTR; QCOM
Strong plays:
1) CNQR: Has set up nicely.
2) FFIV: Ready for another buy.
3) NTES: Nice test of a strong breakout.
4) AH: Nice lateral move ready to break higher.
5) BWNG: Volume has been very strong and it is starting higher once more.
6) GPN: Ready to make the move.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 03/18/2006
CNQR (Concur Technologies--$16.23; +0.46; optionable): Corporate expense management software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnqr.html
After Hours: $16.24
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Taking another run at CNQR after it makes another test of the 50 day EMA (15.43), setting up something of a handle/shakeout to its short 8 week base formed after the January sprint higher. A strong market leader with excellent fundamentals to go with its strong technical pattern. Positive accumulation and surging money flow have set the table. Volume surged back above average Friday as CNQR moved off the 50 day SMA. Nice test and set up very well to continue the move higher.
Volume: 534.762K Avg Volume: 314.233K
BUY POINT: $16.65 Volume=471K Target=$19.98 Stop=$15.55
POSITION: JCQ HC - Aug. $15c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cnqr.html
Play Date: 03/18/2006
ICE (Intercontimental Exchange--$68.10; +1.31; optionable): International energy exchange
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
After Hours: $68.10
STATUS: Test breakout. ICE was a new issue in November 2005. It set up its first short base starting February, a 5 week cup with handle that broke out in March. ICE rallied to 72.20 on that move and then spent last week easing back to test, tapping at the 10 day EMA (65.52) on the intraday lows to end the week. Nice test, and now ready to resume the breakout move. Lots of momentum. Sports excellent sales and earnings growth.
Volume: 1.196M Avg Volume: 825.174K
BUY POINT: $69.35 Volume=1.2M Target=$81.55 Stop=$66.57
POSITION: ICE FN - June $70c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ice.html
Play Date: 03/18/2006
ITRI (Itron--$59.13; +0.98; optionable): Software and services for collection, analysis, etc. of electric, gas and water utilities.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itri.html
STATUS: Test breakout. ITRI is moving laterally on low, below average volume the past two weeks, holding the 18 day EMA (58.20) as it continues the test of the mid-February gap higher out of a 7 month double bottom with handle base. The move took ITRI to a new all-time high. Showing excellent strength as it works laterally, holding the 18 day EMA (58.20) on the lows. Very nice consolidation of a strong breakout from this market leader. Strong money flow is leading higher. Just waiting for volume to rebound as ITRI makes its move to continue the breakout.
Volume: 456.814K Avg Volume: 543.238K
BUY POINT: $60.48 Volume=775K Target=$71.75 Stop=$57.95
POSITION: IUP HL - Aug. $60c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/itri.html
Play Date: 03/18/2006
NTES (Netease.com--$90; -0.88; optionable): Broad-based Chinese internet portal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntes.html
After Hours: $90
STATUS: Test breakout. NTES has come back well, forming a much needed 5.5 month cup with handle base following the strong 2005 run. Wednesday NTES broke out from that base on strong, above average volume. NTES ended the week with a modest, low volume test, tapping at the 10 day EMA (87.95) on the low and rebounding to show a doji. That indicates there is support for the breakout. We are ready to move in as NTES resumes last week's breakout move. Solid 6 to 2 accumulation in the base shows buyers easily outnumbering the sellers during the base. After this test NTES will be ready for more, and it can fly when it gets underway. Excellent fundamentals growth backs up the pattern and the breakout.
Volume: 674.476K Avg Volume: 876.685K
BUY POINT: $91.38 Volume=1M Target=$106.65 Stop=$87.78
POSITION: NQG IS - Sept. $95c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntes.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/18/2006
PRAA (Portfolio Recovery--$45.35; -1.25; optionable): Outsourced receivables management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/praa.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. PRAA is strong, but even the strong need to base. Indeed, PRAA formed a similar pattern that broke lower in October and November before recovering, forming a new consolidation, and running higher once more. We are looking to take advantage of its periodic downturn, particularly with this 3 month bearish top in place. Friday PRAA broke lower through support on a strong, above average volume shot. Some expiration selling, but it is ready to test down and fill the gap from early December down near the 200 day SMA (42.89). A move to the target lands us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 427.8K Avg Volume: 265K
BUY POINT: $45.21 Volume=275K Target=$42.65 Stop=$46.25
POSITION: PBB QI - May $45p (-41 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/praa.html
New Buy Point on Current Position:
Play Date: 03/18/2006
FFIV (F5 Networks--$69.93; +1.86; optionable): Worldwide internet traffic management software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
STATUS: Breakout test. After breaking higher in late February and early March, FFIV came back to test, tapping at the 50 day EMA (63.55) intraday and then rebounding. It has moved up since and is now on the threshold of a new high on this move, matching the early March highs. A strong leader with great fundamentals is ready to make the next break higher. FFIV broke out from a 10 month base in January and then formed a 2 month ascending triangle on top of that breakout; a very bullish pattern. We want to be ready as it resumes the move.
Volume: 756.327K Avg Volume: 1.109M
BUY POINT: $70.65 Volume=1.2M Target=$81.95 Stop=$66.72
POSITION: FLK GN - July $70c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ffiv.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 03/11/2006
AH (Armor Holdings--$58.01; +0.34; optionable): Body armor and vehicle armor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ah.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. AH remains poised, ready to continue the break higher now that it has filled the last January gap higher. Volume started back up toward average Thursday and Friday, though that was likely tied to expiration. Nice doji over the 10 day EMA (57.17) Friday, and just being patient and letting AH show us the stronger move. To recap: A steady supplier to the US war and security efforts with top notch fundamentals to match its technical pattern. AH broke higher out of a long, 13 month base to start February. It enjoyed a 2 year run up to that base and it needed the consolidation. It broke higher in February and surged as sales continued to grow. It is making its second serious test of the break higher, holding above the 18 day EMA (57.17) the past three weeks as AH eases back on lower, below average volume to test the last run higher. During this pullback money flow has remained strong. The low volume shows no big holders want to give it up. Looks ready to resume the breakout move after taking the pit stop to catch its breath.
Volume: 511.8K Avg Volume: 589.448K
BUY POINT: New: $58.35 (orig. $57.55) Volume=750K Target=$68 Stop=$55.28
POSITION: AH HK - Aug. $55c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ah.html
Play Date: 03/13/2006
BKHM (Bookham Technology--$8.14; +0.06; optionable): Optical components, subsystems for communications networks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bkhm.html
After Hours: $8.18
STATUS: Breakout test. Looks as if the test of the breakout is just about over as BKHM tapped at the 18 day EMA (8.00) on the Thursday and Friday lows and rebounded. Holding the breakout and has set up nicely for the continued breakout move. Solid. To recap: BKHM broke higher from its most recent base in two weeks back, rallying hard and then fading to test, coming back to the 10 day EMA on mostly lower trade, reaching down to the 18 day EMA to end the week, but reobunding. It had made a series of bases starting last fall, and continues to perform. Solid fundamentals to go with the price moves. Really improving its sales and earnings and the price is starting to show the appreciation.
Volume: 892.065K Avg Volume: 1.898M
BUY POINT: $8.68 Volume=2.3M Target=$10.72 Stop=$8.11
POSITION: BFQ GU - July $7.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bkhm.html
Play Date: 03/15/2006
BWNG (Broadwing--$12.70; +0.37; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bwng.html
After Hours: $12.66
STATUS: Flying plateau. Nice volume Friday as BWNG moved off the 10 day EMA (12.05). The move did not take it out of its two week lateral move following the early March breakout, but it continues to hold its gains as it consolidates. Looks super. To recap: BWNG is part of the late 1990's telecom group that is enjoying a resurgence. It gapped higher on consecutive sessions to start the month on strong volume, breaking out from a yearlong base. It has spent the past two weeks moving laterally as the 10 day EMA rises to meet it. Volume ahs spiked during the consolidation, an indication that buyers continue to move in. Money flow is running hard. Looking for another strong volume session as BWNG moves through the buy point.
Volume: 3.126M Avg Volume: 1.873M
BUY POINT: $12.95 Volume=2.7M Target=$15.55 Stop=$12.04
POSITION: QBG HV - Aug. $12.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bwng.html
Play Date: 03/14/2006
GPN (Global Payments--$53.21; +0.43; optionable): Global payment systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpn.html
STATUS: Ascending base. This leader continues on the verge of its next strong move to take it to the next all-time high. Volume was up last week, moving above average midweek. Friday it tried the early March highs and held its move into the close. Looks ready to make its move. Really like this stock and its pattern. To recap: Volume has rallied this week, indicating that this 11 week base may be about to yield the breakout move. This stock sports some of the best growth in its earnings and sales, setting the stage for the next move along with this breakout. The base formed above the 50 day EMA (49.89), a key support level for all strong stocks. Positive 2 to 0 accumulation in the pattern shows buyers in control. Strong money flow is moving higher. Relative strength broke out ahead of the stock last week, a good indication for the price. Looking for that strong volume to continue and deliver the breakout.
Volume: 478.3K Avg Volume: 627.62K
BUY POINT: $53.45 Volume=775K Target=$61.95 Stop=$51.31
POSITION: GPN HJ - Aug. $50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gpn.html
DOWNSIDE:
Play Date: 03/13/2006
ECLG (Ecollege.Com--$19.78; +0.2; optionable): Information services to post-secondary education industry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eclg.html
After Hours: $19.79
STATUS: Put. ECLG continued testing its break lower to end the week, moving right up to the 50 day EMA (19.84) and showing a tight doji on rising, above average volume. That shows some churn after the rebound. Looking for ECLG to fall on continued strong volume this week. To recap: ECLG breached the 50 day EMA two weeks back then rallied back on low volume to test that break lower. It was in anticipation of earnings that were quite less than the street wanted. ECLG dove lower Monday on huge volume but managed to recover a good chunk of the loss of the low (17.22). It has made the further rebound, but was unable to use the rally to punch back through resistance. Looking for a rollover to start the play. A run to the target lands us a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 238.8K Avg Volume: 171.015K
BUY POINT: $19.45 (orig. $19.22) Volume=180K Target=$17.48 Stop=$19.95
POSITION: EGU PD - Apr. $20p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/eclg.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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