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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ADM; CELG; CTXS; DRIV; LPSN; QCOM; STLD; WFR
Thursday night play results:
ANDS: Held steady on the session, still poised to move higher
TKC: Nice doji over the 10 day EMA
SMH: Reached lower but rebounded to recoup most of the loss as overall market rallied. Still ready to fall.
PRFT: Big reach lower but then recovered for a modest loss.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/18/2006
ARRS (Arris Group--$13.83; +1.08; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arrs.html
After Hours: $13.85
STATUS: Test breakout. ARRS gapped higher in early February, blasting out of a 17 week cup with handle base on huge volume. It has spent the past 5 weeks consolidating again, moving laterally over the 18 day EMA (12.77) with a quick run down to the 50 day EMA (12.05) two weeks back but then rebounding. Friday it shot higher once more on strong, above average volume. Strong 8 to 4 accumulation in the base shows plenty of buying, setting up the breakout move. Nice money flow is a good complement to the accumulation. Relative strength broke out on Friday as well, a very good indication that the breakout has some legs even if Friday was expiration and that may have influenced some volume. Ready to start some positions on a further move and then again on the next test.
Volume: 3.943M Avg Volume: 1.859M
BUY POINT: $14.05 Volume=2M Target=$16.88 Stop=$13.22
POSITION: AQC HV - Aug. $12.50c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/arrs.html
Play Date: 03/18/2006
NWRE (Neoware--$25.34; -0.17; optionable): PC networking and software solutions for corporations
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nwre.html
After Hours: $25.26
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume screamed higher Monday as news that NWRE was to be added to the SP600 hit the wire. It continued to drift higher and then eased back to tap the 10 day EMA (24.88) on the Friday intraday low. This market leader looks to have found the bottom of its 10 week base that is consolidating a strong 5 month run through the end of January. The base has formed around the 50 day EMA (24.51) and accumulation is positive. Looks as if it can take another 2 to 3 sessions to complete the test/handle, but it is ready to move and we want to be ready to move in as well when it does.
Volume: 311.509K Avg Volume: 795.131K
BUY POINT: $26.21 Volume=1.2M Target=$31.45 Stop=$24.55
POSITION: QQA IE - Sept. $25c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nwre.html
Play Date: 03/18/2006
TWGP (Tower Group--$21.92; +0.17; optionable): Property & casualty insurance.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/twgp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle base. TWGP was a new issue in October 2005, and it is working on its third base since the IPO, a very nicely formed 12 week cup with handle. Positive accumulation as TWGP sets up for the breakout to another new high. Very nice handle has formed with a test lower Friday to the 10 day EMA (21.20) intraday and then rebounding to post a gain on rising though still below average trade. May take a couple more sessions to finish the handle before it makes the breakout move.
Volume: 213.41K Avg Volume: 274.282K
BUY POINT: $22.78 Volume=411K Target=$27.42 Stop=$21.19
POSITION: PTQ GX - July $22.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/twgp.html
Play Date: 03/18/2006
ZGEN (Zymogenetics--$22.41; -0.19; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zgen.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. This is a hot sector right now, and ZGEN has set up a nice 9 week base using the 50 day EMA (21.24) as support. Big rally in January to form the right side of a larger 16 month cup with handle; that led to the current pattern that is the handle to the larger base. Strong money flow is leading higher and volume started to pick up toward the end of the week. Strong 3 to 0 accumulation in the current smaller pattern shows all buying. Strong money flow is a good complement to the accumulation. Set up this base right below an all-time high, a good launch point for a breakout and an entry point into this play.
Volume: 398.184K Avg Volume: 511.518K
BUY POINT: $23.08 Volume=767K Target=$27.75 Stop=$21.97
POSITION: GZU HX - Aug. $22.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/zgen.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/18/2006
TALX (Talx Corp.--$29.46; -0.73; optionable): Business software services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/talx.html
STATUS: Put. Peaked in early January and made another run at the high in early January, setting up a nice looking base. It could not sustain the breakout, however, turning lower and diving through the 50 day EMA on strong volume. It spent the past two weeks rebounding to test that breakdown, moving on very low, below average volume. Friday that started to fail as TALX broke lower on volume that shot back up above average. Money flow is working lower ahead of price. Looking to move in on further downside; a run to the target lands us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 598.5K Avg Volume: 550K
BUY POINT: $29.22 Volume=550K Target=$26.72 Stop=$30.48
POSITION: TUB QF - May $30p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/talx.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, BRCM, CELG, COH, FFIV, GME, MRVL, NVDA, PSYS, UNH
AAPL: Managed to hold the line Friday near 65. AAPL is trying to set up the bottom of a base here at 65.
BRCM: Recovered Friday on a bit higher volume. Trying to hold the range.
CELG: Continuing its move higher, showing some solid upside volume.
COH: Tough drop to the 50 day EMA on strong volume. This is where it needs to hang on.
FFIV: Ready to make a move through the march high.
GME: Volume up last week as GME moved off the 50 day EMA (39.17), recovering nicely and continuing its two month range.
NVDA: Nice higher volume hold at the 18 day EMA Friday. NVDA ready to make the next move.
UNH: Trying to make a stand at the 200 day SMA.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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