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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CHRS; CYBS; DRIV; ORB; PSSI; RACK
Tuesday night play results:
BGC: Nice continued move higher on solid volume.
OPSW: Very low volume as OPSW put us to sleep Wednesday
RADN: No volume as RADN approached the 'hump' in the pattern
PSSI: Nice break higher off the 10 day EMA though could use more volume.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/22/2006
FNSR (Finisar--$4.95; +0.3; optionable): Networking & communications hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fnsr.html
After Hours: $4.97
STATUS: Breakout test. Broke out from a 14 month cup with handle base to start the month, gapping higher on strong volume. It is making its second test of the breakout, coming back to the 10 day EMA (4.66) on lower volume and then starting the next bounce higher on very strong, above average volume. Strong money flow is leading higher. Relative strength is breaking higher as well, a very good indication for the further run higher. Nice. Lots of momentum.
Volume: 33.044M Avg Volume: 12.137M
BUY POINT: $5.09 Volume=18M Target=$6.75 Stop=$4.73
POSITION: FQP GA - July $5c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/fnsr.html
Play Date: 03/22/2006
FSL (Freescale Semiconductor--$27.98; +0.88; optionable): Semiconductors (Motorola spin-off)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fsl.html
STATUS: Trading range. Volume jumped the past two sessions as FSL rallied from 26, the more recent bottom of the 5 month trading range (was bottoming at 25 before February). Money flow is surging higher ahead of price; maybe this time FSL will follow it. Solid 6 to 2 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying in the trading range, and that usually leads to an upside breakout. It definitely ahs the volume to do it. Looking to open positions as FSL moves through the buy point on volume and then again on a test. The reason is that FSL has rallied off the bottom of the pattern, and after the initial breakout surge it will be a bit winded. Of course, we buy on the breakout because sometimes a strong stock will rally quite a bit on the breakout move regardless of how far it had to go to get there. Strong leader ready for a new all-time high.
Volume: 3.976M Avg Volume: 2.275M
BUY POINT: $28.45 Volume=2.5M Target=$34 Stop=$26.55
POSITION: FSL IE - Sept. $25c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/fsl.html
Play Date: 03/22/2006
PLMD (Polymedica--$42.85; +0.22; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plmd.html
After Hours: $42.82
STATUS: Cup w/handle. PLMD broke out from a 15 month base to end January, posting a nice surge to 43.50. It then fell into the current 6 week pattern, coming down to test the 50 day EMA (39.79) on the low and then rebounding to form the right side of the base. Excellent 3 to 0 accumulation in the pattern (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows all buying. Volume jumped up Wednesday, but volume remained below average. Strong money flow is leading higher. Looking strong and ready to make the breakout to a new all-time high. Solid.
Volume: 213.016K Avg Volume: 229.257K
BUY POINT: $43.62 Volume=344K Target=$51.95 Stop=$41.45
POSITION: PM IH - Sept. $40c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/plmd.html
Current play ready to move:
Play Date: 03/02/2006
BBY (Best Buy--$55.17; -0.33; optionable): Electronics stores, Geek Squad, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
STATUS: Breakout test. BBY rallied higher last week on better, but not huge volume. The move did not stick, and it faded this week back to the 18 day EMA (54.68). Wednesday it tapped some support at 54 and rebounded to close basically flat on rising, average volume. Like this test and now we look for volume as it resumes the move higher. To recap: BBY broke sharply higher to start February as sales were much stronger than expected. The move took it out of a 6 month base that formed using the 200 day SMA (47.63) as support. We will see if it can hold the 18 day and then rebound on even better volume than it showed Wednesday.
Volume: 3.718M Avg Volume: 3.93M
BUY POINT: $55.48 Volume=6.4M Target=$63.95 Stop=$53.89
POSITION: BBY FK - June $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bby.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, BRCM, CELG, COH, FFIV, GME, MRVL, NVDA, PSYS, UNH
AAPL: The MFST news could not give AAPL any life. It is struggling.
BRCM: Down to the 50 day EMA (43.16) on rising, average volume. Holding up pretty well but looking at that gape from 38 it ahs yet to fill.
FFIV: Doji above the 18 day EMA. FFIV received a downgrade Tuesday after the strong Monday break higher. It has handled it well, and this doji indicates it is ready to resume.
NVDA: Took the MSFT news hard, gapping it lower. It tapped the 18 day EMA and rebounded, minimizing the damage. Still in good shape.
PSYS: Holding above the 50 day EMA, but hardly showing strength.
UNH: Threatening to give up the 200 day SMA as it tries to put a bottom in on its base.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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