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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BGC; BOOM; BWNG; LUK; RMBS; STLD
Thursday night play results:
BOOM: Nice move on rising, average volume.
CRI: Continuing to set up testing the 18 day EMA Friday
CVD: Moved higher but no volume
RHAT: Fell back to the 10 day EMA as it continues to work on the handle
QCOM: Tested the 18 day EMA on low volume, continuing the breakout test
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/25/2006
APH (Amphenol Corp.--$50.23; +0.46; optionable): Electrical, electronic, fiber optic connectors, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aph.html
STATUS: Ascending base. A market leader setting up a nice breakout for a new all-time high. APH has worked laterally the past 10 weeks, making higher and higher lows above the 50 day EMA (49.07) below a constant top that ranges roughly up to 52. Nice base sporting strong 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying, a good complement to the strong money flow. This move is consolidating the mid-January breakout from another nice base, a 6.5 month cup with handle. Nice fade last week to test a solid move higher, making a higher low at the 50 day SMA (49.66) and rebounding. Solid.
Volume: 195K Avg Volume: 464.564K
BUY POINT: $51.88 Volume=725K Target=$60.95 Stop=$49.25
POSITION: APH GJ - July $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aph.html
Play Date: 03/25/2006
BLKB (Blackbaud--$19.94; +0.44; no options): Donation tracking software, etc. for nonprofit organizations
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blkb.html
STATUS: Breakout test. BLKB broke higher in February and ran up to 20 along the 10 day EMA (19.64). Nice run and it used last week's overall market test to test its own move, coming back to the 18 day EMA (19.42) on mostly lower volume. It held, showed a doji on higher volume Thursday, and then bounced higher Friday on rising, average volume. This leader looks ready to make the next step after this test of the breakout. That first breakout test is one of our favorite entry points as it shows the buyers still want the stock after that initial breakout move.
Volume: 528.324K Avg Volume: 472.605K
BUY POINT: $20.15 Volume=700K Target=$24 Stop=$18.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/blkb.html
Play Date: 03/25/2006
NETL (Netlogic Microsystems--$37.7; -0.42; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/netl.html
STATUS: Ascending base. After a strong run higher from November to late January, NETL has formed the current 8 week base, using the 50 day EMA (34.32) as support as NETL made higher lows below a top at 38 to 39. Volume surged back above average last week as NETL rallied to the top of the range, a good indication that the buyers are loading up, ready to push it to a new all-time high. Strong 3 to 1 accumulation in the current base shows buying continued through the consolidation. Money flow is still leading higher. Relative strength is excellent, ready to make the break higher as well to corroborate a breakout in price. Solid leader with excellent underlying fundamental growth rates. Showed strength in a weaker market last week.
Volume: 416.551K Avg Volume: 375.803K
BUY POINT: $38.55 Volume=564K Target=$46 Stop=$36
POSITION: LKT GG - July $35c (81 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/netl.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 03/25/2006
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$81.69; -1.06; optionable): Chinese internet vacation site
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
STATUS: Breakout test. CTRP surged higher for us two weeks back and has rallied up the 10 day EMA (80.37) since. Volume turned lower last week and we are looking for CTRP to come back to the 10 day EMA and give us another entry point for more positions. A strong growth stock with surging sales and earnings growth.
Volume: 113.533K Avg Volume: 292.538K
BUY POINT: Test toward 80.37 and then rebounding through $80.89 Volume=300K Target=$93 Stop=$79.88
POSITION: QCT IQ - Sept. $85c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ctrp.html
Play Date: 03/25/2006
DRIV (Digital River--$42.5; -0.02; optionable): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/driv.html
STATUS: Test breakout. We moved into DRIV when it broke higher in early March, breaking out of a much larger 16 month double bottom with handle base. It rallied up the 10 day EMA (41.84) and then gapped higher last Tuesday on very strong volume after upping its guidance. Then it faded, testing the move, filling the gap and holding the 10 day EMA as it came back. Strong money flow is leading and relative strength broke out. Looking for additional positions as DRIV rebound on rising trade.
Volume: 744.795K Avg Volume: 1.129M
BUY POINT: $43.25 Volume=1.3M Target=$50 Stop=$41.72
POSITION: DQI IH - Sept. $40c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/driv.html
Continuing plays ready to move:
Play Date: 03/22/2006
FNSR (Finisar--$4.95; +0.09; optionable): Networking & communications hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fnsr.html
After Hours: $4.94
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working laterally just below 5. Last week it came off the 10 day EMA (4.74) on strong volume Wednesday after using that level as support. Stalled to end the week but still looks ready to continue the breakout move. To recap: Broke out from a 14 month cup with handle base to start the month, gapping higher on strong volume. It is making its second test of the breakout, coming back to the 10 day EMA on lower volume and then starting the next bounce higher on very strong, above average volume. Strong money flow is leading higher. Relative strength is breaking higher as well, a very good indication for the further run higher.
Volume: 13.354M Avg Volume: 12.459M
BUY POINT: $5.09 Volume=18M Target=$6.75 Stop=$4.73
POSITION: FQP GA - July $5c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fnsr.html
Play Date: 03/22/2006
PLMD (Polymedica--$42.92; +0.07; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plmd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working laterally in a very narrow range on very low, below average volume, forming the handle to its base. The 10 day EMA (42.36) is rising to meet it, and we anticipate PLMD to make its move this week as the 10 day EMA comes up to meet price. To recap: PLMD broke out from a 15 month base to end January, posting a nice surge to 43.50. It then fell into the current 6 week pattern, coming down to test the 50 day EMA (40.03) on the low and then rebounding to form the right side of the base. Excellent 3 to 0 accumulation in the pattern (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows all buying. Strong money flow is leading higher. Looking strong and ready to make the breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 140.504K Avg Volume: 229.916K
BUY POINT: $43.62 Volume=344K Target=$51.95 Stop=$41.45
POSITION: PM IH - Sept. $40c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/plmd.html
Play Date: 03/22/2006
TFSM (24/7 Real Media--$9.75; +0.38; optionable): Media services, software products for online advertising
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tfsm.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong bounce off the 10 day EMA (9.32) on rising, above average volume signals that TFSM is ready to make the breakout. Looking for another solid session Monday to show is the buy point. To recap: TFSM spent last week forming the handle to its 9 week base after a strong break higher Monday. The pattern formed over the 50 day EMA (8.72), a natural and important support level. This is the handle to a much larger 27 month cup with handle base. Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation in the pattern shows all buying, setting up the next breakout. Strong money flow is leading higher as well, a good complement to the money flow. It has finished forming its handle and is ready to make the breakout.
Volume: 1.295M Avg Volume: 1.054M
BUY POINT: $9.94 Volume=1.4M Target=$11.95 Stop=$9.24
POSITION: QNE GB - July $10c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tfsm.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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